feat(mcp): add a maintain outcome-calibration CLI mirror

packages/loopover-mcp/bin/loopover-mcp.js

@@ -99,7 +99,7 @@ const CLI_COMMAND_SPEC = {
   profile: ["list", "create", "switch", "remove"],
   cache: ["status", "clear", "list"],
   agent: ["plan", "status", "explain", "packet"],
-  maintain: ["status", "queue", "approve", "reject", "pause", "resume", "set-level", "precision", "onboarding-pack", "audit-feed"],
+  maintain: ["status", "queue", "approve", "reject", "pause", "resume", "set-level", "precision", "outcome-calibration", "onboarding-pack", "audit-feed"],
 };
 const COMPLETION_SHELLS = ["bash", "zsh", "fish", "powershell"];
 const AGENT_PROFILE_IDS = ["miner-planner", "miner-auto-dev", "maintainer-triage", "repo-owner-intake"];
@@ -3044,6 +3044,8 @@ function printMaintainHelp() {
       `                               actions: ${MAINTAIN_ACTION_CLASSES.join(", ")}`,
       `                               levels:  ${MAINTAIN_AUTONOMY_LEVELS.join(", ")}`,
       "  precision [--window-days N]  Show gate false-positive telemetry (blocked-then-merged per gate type).",
+      "  outcome-calibration          Show slop-band merge rates and recommendation-outcome calibration.",
+      "             [--window-days N]  Bound the recommendation window (default: full history).",
       "  onboarding-pack [--refresh]  Preview the repo's contributor onboarding pack.",
       "  audit-feed [--since ISO]     Show the agent audit feed (who did what, when).",
       "             [--limit N]       Cap the events returned (1-200).",
@@ -3154,6 +3156,26 @@ async function maintainCli(args) {
     emit(payload, lines.join("\n"));
     return;
   }
+  if (subcommand === "outcome-calibration") {
+    // #6735 outcome calibration: read-only measurement of whether higher-slop bands merge less often and how
+    // agent recommendations panned out. Same --window-days handling the sibling precision command uses (a
+    // non-positive value omits ?windowDays, so the server reports full history).
+    const windowDays = Number(options.windowDays);
+    const query = windowDays > 0 ? `?windowDays=${encodeURIComponent(windowDays)}` : "";
+    const payload = await apiGet(`${repoBase}/outcome-calibration${query}`);
+    const window = payload.windowDays ? `last ${payload.windowDays}d` : "all history";
+    const recommendations = payload.recommendations ?? {};
+    const rate = (value) => (value === null || value === undefined ? "n/a (below sample)" : `${Math.round(value * 100)}%`);
+    const lines = [
+      `Outcome calibration for ${repoFullName} (${window}): recommendations ${recommendations.positive ?? 0} positive, ${recommendations.negative ?? 0} negative, ${recommendations.pending ?? 0} pending (positive rate ${rate(recommendations.positiveRate)}).`,
+      ...(payload.slop ?? []).map(
+        (band) => `- ${band.band}: ${rate(band.mergeRate)} merge rate over ${band.sampleSize ?? 0} PR(s) (${band.merged ?? 0} merged, ${band.closed ?? 0} closed)`,
+      ),
+      ...(payload.signals ?? []),
+    ];
+    emit(payload, lines.join("\n"));
+    return;
+  }
   if (subcommand === "onboarding-pack") {
     // #6738: session-authenticated mirror of GET /onboarding-pack/preview (and the remote
     // loopover_get_repo_onboarding_pack tool). Bare `--refresh` becomes options.refresh === true via

test/unit/mcp-cli-basics.test.ts

@@ -221,7 +221,7 @@ describe("loopover-mcp CLI — basics", () => {
     expect(ps).toContain("[System.Management.Automation.CompletionResult]::new");
     expect(ps).toContain("$commands = @('login', 'logout'");
     expect(ps).toContain(
-      "'maintain' = @('status', 'queue', 'approve', 'reject', 'pause', 'resume', 'set-level', 'precision', 'onboarding-pack', 'audit-feed')",
+      "'maintain' = @('status', 'queue', 'approve', 'reject', 'pause', 'resume', 'set-level', 'precision', 'outcome-calibration', 'onboarding-pack', 'audit-feed')",
     );
   });
 

test/unit/mcp-cli-maintain.test.ts

@@ -95,6 +95,24 @@ describe("loopover-mcp CLI — maintain (#784)", () => {
     expect(scoped).toMatch(/Gate precision for owner\/repo \(last 30d\)/);
   });
 
+  it("outcome-calibration reports slop-band merge rates + recommendation outcomes (plain + json), passing the window through (#6735)", async () => {
+    const e = await env();
+    const out = await runAsync(["maintain", "outcome-calibration", "--repo", "owner/repo"], e);
+    expect(out).toMatch(/Outcome calibration for owner\/repo \(all history\): recommendations 14 positive, 3 negative, 3 pending \(positive rate 82%\)/);
+    expect(out).toMatch(/clean: 75% merge rate over 12 PR\(s\) \(9 merged, 3 closed\)/);
+    expect(out).toMatch(/high: 25% merge rate over 4 PR\(s\)/);
+    expect(out).toMatch(/Higher-slop bands merge less often/);
+    const json = JSON.parse(await runAsync(["maintain", "outcome-calibration", "--repo", "owner/repo", "--json"], e)) as {
+      recommendations: { positive: number; positiveRate: number };
+      slop: Array<{ band: string }>;
+    };
+    expect(json.recommendations).toMatchObject({ positive: 14, positiveRate: 0.82 });
+    expect(json.slop.map((band) => band.band)).toEqual(["clean", "high"]);
+    // --window-days bounds the recommendation window; the CLI forwards it as ?windowDays and reflects it.
+    const scoped = await runAsync(["maintain", "outcome-calibration", "--repo", "owner/repo", "--window-days", "30"], e);
+    expect(scoped).toMatch(/Outcome calibration for owner\/repo \(last 30d\)/);
+  });
+
   it("onboarding-pack mirrors the session-gated API payload and forwards refresh", async () => {
     const requests: string[] = [];
     const e = await env((request) => requests.push(request.url ?? ""));

test/unit/support/mcp-cli-harness.ts

@@ -516,6 +516,23 @@ export async function startFixtureServer(
       );
       return;
     }
+    if (request.url?.startsWith("/v1/repos/owner/repo/outcome-calibration") && request.method === "GET") {
+      const windowDays = new URL(request.url, "http://localhost").searchParams.get("windowDays");
+      response.end(
+        JSON.stringify({
+          repoFullName: "owner/repo",
+          generatedAt: "2026-05-30T00:00:00.000Z",
+          windowDays: windowDays ? Number(windowDays) : null,
+          slop: [
+            { band: "clean", sampleSize: 12, merged: 9, closed: 3, mergeRate: 0.75 },
+            { band: "high", sampleSize: 4, merged: 1, closed: 3, mergeRate: 0.25 },
+          ],
+          recommendations: { total: 20, positive: 14, negative: 3, pending: 3, positiveRate: 0.82 },
+          signals: ["Higher-slop bands merge less often — the slop signal is tracking real outcomes."],
+        }),
+      );
+      return;
+    }
     const onboardingPackUrl = new URL(request.url ?? "/", "http://localhost");
     if (onboardingPackUrl.pathname === "/v1/repos/owner/repo/onboarding-pack/preview" && request.method === "GET") {
       const refresh = onboardingPackUrl.searchParams.get("refresh");