Agora Macro Agent

Autonomous prediction market intelligence powered by LoneStarOracle data feeds and Arc Nanopayments.

Built for the Agora Agents Hackathon (May 11–25, 2026).

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What It Does

The Agora Macro Agent is an autonomous AI agent that:

1. Pays for real-time data using Arc Nanopayments — sub-cent USDC per query, no API keys, no subscriptions
2. Fetches 7 live data feeds from LoneStarOracle covering energy, LatAm currencies, agriculture, metals, grid stress, supply chain, and compute markets
3. Generates macro prediction market signals using Claude AI — directional bias, confidence scores, and grounded reasoning
4. Proposes novel market verticals that don't yet exist on any prediction platform — with specific resolution criteria powered by on-chain data oracles

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Why This Matters

Prediction markets are only as good as their data. Most markets today rely on centralized, manually-curated price feeds. This agent demonstrates a new model:

• Any agent can query real-time data for fractions of a cent using Arc's EIP-3009 payment batching
• Markets can resolve automatically using LoneStarOracle as the oracle layer
• Novel markets become viable when data acquisition cost approaches zero

The agent proposed markets that don't exist anywhere today — including an Argentina dolar blue premium tracker and a US grid stress futures market — because the data infrastructure to support them now exists.

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Architecture

Arc Nanopayments (EIP-3009)
         │
         ▼
LoneStarOracle Data Feeds (7 sources)
  ├── CrownBlock  — WTI, Brent, Henry Hub energy prices
  ├── LatAmPulse  — ARS/USD, BRL, dolar blue premium
  ├── AgriPulse   — Corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar
  ├── GridPulse   — US electricity grid stress score
  ├── ComputePulse— GPU spot prices (H100, A100, A10G)
  ├── IndustrialMetals — Copper, aluminum, lithium
  └── SupplyChainPulse — Freight, shipping stress index
         │
         ▼
Claude AI (claude-haiku-4-5) — Signal generation
         │
         ▼
Output: Signals + Novel Market Proposals + Arc settlement demo

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Sample Output

## TOP SIGNALS

Signal A: LATAM CURRENCY PRESSURE – BEARISH (78% confidence)
ARS/USD at 1,399 with 0.7% dolar blue premium (historically 2-4%)
signals peg compression — often precedes devaluation acceleration.

Signal B: ENERGY SUPPLY SHOCK RISK – BULLISH (72% confidence)
WTI-Brent spread at $8.50/bbl with US grid demand signal present
suggests refined product tightness and upward crude pressure.

## PROPOSED MARKET VERTICALS

Market A: "Will Argentina's Dolar Blue Premium exceed 5% by June 30?"
  - Oracle: LoneStarOracle LatAmPulse feed
  - Resolves: YES if premium ≥ 5.0% on any day before resolution date
  - Why it should exist: No market tracks the spread as a crisis indicator

Market B: "Will US Grid Stress Score exceed 8/10 in July 2026?"
  - Oracle: LoneStarOracle GridPulse feed
  - Resolves: YES if stress score ≥ 8.0 on any day in July
  - Why it should exist: Energy demand forecasting has no prediction market

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Arc Nanopayments Flow

// Agent signs EIP-3009 authorization for each data query
// LoneStarOracle submits signature to Arc for batched settlement
// Agent receives data instantly, Arc settles on-chain in batch

const auth = await signEIP3009({
  from:    agentWallet,
  to:      LSO_MERCHANT,        // 0x52Ab53912D37759B2ad364f22dD06B16714b6C06
  value:   2_000n,              // $0.002 USDC (2000 micro-USDC)
  validBefore: Math.floor(Date.now()/1000) + 300,
});

Each data feed query costs $0.002–$0.005 USDC. Running the full 7-feed pipeline costs less than $0.03 total.

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Quick Start

# 1. Install dependencies
pip install -r requirements.txt
npm install ethers

# 2. Set environment variables
export ANTHROPIC_API_KEY=your_key_here
export AGENT_WALLET_MNEMONIC="your twelve word mnemonic here"

# 3. Run the agent
bash run_agent.sh

Requirements:

• Python 3.10+
• Node.js 18+
• Arc testnet USDC (get from Arc faucet)
• Anthropic API key

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Data Sources

All data sourced from LoneStarOracle — a live network of 26 AI data services on Base mainnet, available to any agent via x402 or Arc Nanopayments.

Feed	Endpoint	Cost
CrownBlock (energy)	crownblock.lonestaroracle.xyz/feed	free
LatAmPulse	latam.lonestaroracle.xyz/feed	free
AgriPulse	agri.lonestaroracle.xyz/feed	free
GridPulse	grid.lonestaroracle.xyz/preview	free
ComputePulse	compute.lonestaroracle.xyz/feed	free
IndustrialMetals	metals.lonestaroracle.xyz/feed	free
SupplyChainPulse	supply.lonestaroracle.xyz/feed	free

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Files

File	Description
agora_agent.py	Main agent — fetches feeds, generates signals
arc_nanopay.mjs	Arc Nanopayments EIP-3009 integration
run_agent.sh	Full pipeline runner
index.html	Live dashboard
requirements.txt	Python dependencies

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Built With

• Arc Protocol — Layer 1 blockchain + Nanopayments
• LoneStarOracle — Real-time AI data services
• Anthropic Claude — Signal generation (claude-haiku-4-5)
• x402 — HTTP-native payment protocol

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LoneStarOracle · jay@lonestaroracle.xyz · @LsOracle_ai