V-Trade

V-Trade is an auditable, paper-only prediction-market experiment. The active release is vtrade-kalshi-v1: it discovers ordinary binary Kalshi markets, exposes YES/NO outcomes, and simulates IOC/FOK orders against real public market data without submitting orders to a venue.

The active release has one experiment, one clean seven-migration database chain, and no compatibility loader, dual venue, dual write, legacy upgrade, or real-execution fallback. Historical research is retained only under docs/archive/predictionarena/; that archive is read-only evidence and is never imported or loaded by the application.

Local validation

Python 3.12 and the locked development environment are required:

$env:UV_CACHE_DIR='.uv-cache'
uv sync --extra dev
uv run --extra dev python -m pytest
uv run --extra dev python -m ruff check src tests
uv run --extra dev python -m mypy src/vtrade
uv run --extra dev python -m vtrade.release_verification
uv run --extra dev python scripts/verify_kalshi_cutover_evidence.py
docker compose -f compose.coolify.yaml config --quiet

The release verifier checks frozen artifact hashes, the exact migration chain, the archive boundary, the fixture manifest, and the zero-active-legacy-venue sweep. The cutover evidence verifier binds the recorded six-gate handoff to those hashes and reports a partial record as blocked; local tests do not claim external checks.

Deployment boundary

Deploy a disposable empty PostgreSQL target with the real private object store. The sequence is migrate -> authenticated API readiness -> worker. /health/live is cheap and provider-independent. /health/ready checks the database, latest migration, private configuration, storage, and active artifact contract; it does not call Kalshi, model, or research providers.

The image verifies active artifacts before dropping privileges. Missing private resources, reviewed external fixture evidence, or migrations fail closed; the operator cutover evidence check also fails closed before worker startup. Real Kalshi authentication, signing, WebSockets, and order submission are not part of this release.

See docs/runtime-operations.md for the operator runbook and docs/adr/0002-kalshi-only-paper-cutover.md for the irreversible fresh-database cutover decision.