Use target-period Medicaid facts in the 2024 US fiscal refresh

[daphnehanse11]

Reproduction

On current main (843f1e0 locally), I generated the active 2024 Arch bundle for the US fiscal refresh aliases and then compiled Populace fiscal targets with target_period=2024.

The active alias cms-medicaid-chip-monthly-enrollment-dataset produced CMS Medicaid facts dated month:2025-12, e.g.:

• cms_medicaid.total_medicaid_enrollment
• cms_medicaid.total_medicaid_chip_enrollment
• cms_medicaid.total_chip_enrollment
• cms_medicaid.medicaid_chip_child_enrollment
• cms_medicaid.total_adult_medicaid_enrollment

Because Populace's fiscal target compiler correctly excludes source periods after the target period, the target profile gate failed:

medicaid_enrollment: target profile has 0 match(es), needs 1
medicaid_chip_enrollment: target profile has 0 match(es), needs 1

I then built cms-medicaid-chip-monthly-enrollment-december-2024, which emitted 260 valid CMS Medicaid facts dated month:2024-12 across 52 geographies. Appending those facts to the generated active bundle made the Populace target profile gate pass:

facts: 6029
targets: 4988
gate_passed: True
families:
  irs_soi 4644
  cms_medicaid 104
  cms_aca 102
  usda_snap 52
  state_income_tax 44
  hhs_acf_tanf 30
  ssa 6
  jct 5
  cms_medicare 1

Why this matters

The current active source list for the 2024 fiscal refresh includes the rolling/latest CMS Medicaid package, but that package now resolves to a post-2024 observation. A normal generated active bundle therefore cannot pass the 2024 Medicaid target coverage gate.

Suggested fix

Make the Medicaid active source selection period-aware. For the 2024 fiscal refresh, either:

• use cms-medicaid-chip-monthly-enrollment-december-2024 as the active Medicaid enrollment source, or
• make the release builder / source selection choose the latest Medicaid observation not after the target period.

The current compiler behavior seems right: it should not silently use 2025-12 facts for a 2024 release.