Fix JCT tax expenditure target handling in calibration#648
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SOI targets for SALT, real estate taxes, and medical expense deduction are reported only for the ~10% of filers who itemize, but the existing `variable > 0` constraint captures everyone with economic exposure (~80-90% of filers). This mismatch causes massive count and dollar overestimates. Adding `tax_unit_itemizes == 1` fixes the population alignment. Changes: - etl_irs_soi.py: For salt, real_estate_taxes, and medical_expense_deduction, append a `tax_unit_itemizes == 1` constraint to child strata in the generic target loop. - etl_national_targets.py: Split JCT itemized deduction targets (salt_deduction, medical_expense_deduction, charitable_deduction, interest_deduction) into a separate itemizer_targets list loaded into a new "United States - Itemizing Tax Filers" stratum with both filer and itemizer constraints. QBI deduction remains in the plain filer stratum (above-the-line). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Superseded by the updated #639, which now contains the same fix on the original PR branch. |
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Summary
This fixes the JCT target concept mismatch described in Fixes #646.
Changes:
reform_idthroughtarget_overview, target querying, matrix building, and staging validationincome_taxdeltas rather than raw deduction totalsreform_idpassthrough and reform target querying/namingWhy
JCT publishes tax expenditures, not deduction aggregates. The old path mixed SOI-style deduction totals with JCT revenue-loss targets, which materially distorted calibration for variables like
salt_deduction.Validation
python3 -m py_compileon all edited filestarget_overviewand best-period target query logicEnvironment limitation
I could not run the repo's normal pytest path in this workspace because the available environments are broken on
torchand missingsqlmodelin the fallback Python.