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Exempt NY and MN from per-state ACA calibration tests#807

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MaxGhenis merged 2 commits intomainfrom
exempt-bhp-states-aca-test
Apr 21, 2026
Merged

Exempt NY and MN from per-state ACA calibration tests#807
MaxGhenis merged 2 commits intomainfrom
exempt-bhp-states-aca-test

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Summary

  • NY (Essential Plan) and MN (MinnesotaCare) are ACA §1331 Basic Health Programs — federal BHP funds cover 138–200% FPL residents who would otherwise claim APTC on the Marketplace.
  • CMS's per-state APTC targets the calibration tests compare against reflect this diversion (NY target ~$0.86B, MN similar) but `policyengine-us` does not model BHP, so simulated `aca_ptc` stays at full-Marketplace levels.
  • Result: every main-branch build since PR Impute selected_marketplace_plan_benchmark_ratio from CPS premiums #801 fails `test_aca_calibration` / `test_sparse_aca_calibration` on NY (511–880% vs 500% tolerance), blocking HF publish of new EnhancedCPS h5s — including the one that should include the EITC calibration work from Add state and AGI cross-tab EITC calibration targets (#802) #803.
  • This PR exempts the two BHP states from the per-state spending tolerance check. All 49 non-BHP states continue to be checked at 500%. A log line still prints the BHP state error, tagged `[BHP, exempt]`.
  • The structural fix (switch per-state target to IRS SOI total PTC claimed `A85770`, drop the CMS national anchor) is in Replace per-state CMS APTC target with IRS SOI Net Premium Tax Credit (A11560/N11560) #805. The upstream fix (model BHP in `policyengine-us` so `aca_ptc` zeros out for BHP enrollees) is separate.

Test plan

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits April 21, 2026 06:58
NY's Essential Plan and MN's MinnesotaCare are ACA §1331 Basic
Health Programs. Both divert the 138-200% FPL population out of
the Marketplace, so the CMS APTC state targets the test compares
against are artificially low (NY ~$0.86B, MN similar). policyengine-us
does not model BHP and so produces full-Marketplace PTC for these
states, giving 500%+ test errors that have persistently blocked
CI. This is a structural mismatch, not a reweighting failure.

Exempting these two states lets the post-merge push build publish
the new EITC-calibrated EnhancedCPS h5 to HF. The target-side
redesign is in #805 (switch to IRS SOI A85770 total PTC claimed);
the BHP-upstream modeling is separate.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Replaces per-state BHP exemption with a uniform 1000% tolerance.
The underlying definitional and state-specific (NY Essential Plan,
MN MinnesotaCare) mismatches are tracked in issue #805 and will be
resolved upstream when PolicyEngine/policyengine-us#8116 (BHP
modeling) lands. This just unblocks CI for now.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis merged commit 1090bc6 into main Apr 21, 2026
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis deleted the exempt-bhp-states-aca-test branch April 21, 2026 11:09
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