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#266 (fixing #225) assigns ssn_card_type / immigration_status_str labels from ASEC citizenship via the residual method, with only the undocumented worker/student EAD split forced to published controls. The total undocumented population is deliberately emergent (13.3M on the 2024 ASEC) and is only release-gated against a coarse plausibility band around Pew's 11.0M (2022) anchor — per the charter, representation belongs to calibration, not to label churn in a source stage.
The proper reconciliation is a calibration target in the facts lane:
Target: weighted person count with ssn_card_type == NONE (and optionally the non-citizen total, != CITIZEN), national grain to start.
Value + SE: a published unauthorized-population estimate with its uncertainty — Pew (11.0M in 2022, with later vintages as they publish), DHS OHSS, and/or CBO's 2023–24 estimates. Ledger should own the source package so the value carries a citation and standard error like every other fact, and vintage updates flow through normally.
Why weights and not labels: CPS undercoverage of unauthorized immigrants is household-level undercoverage; upweighting households that contain undocumented members (mixed-status households included) is the honest mechanism, unlike the incumbent's family-correlation step that relabeled Medicaid/Social Security recipients as undocumented to hit a total.
#266 (fixing #225) assigns
ssn_card_type/immigration_status_strlabels from ASEC citizenship via the residual method, with only the undocumented worker/student EAD split forced to published controls. The total undocumented population is deliberately emergent (13.3M on the 2024 ASEC) and is only release-gated against a coarse plausibility band around Pew's 11.0M (2022) anchor — per the charter, representation belongs to calibration, not to label churn in a source stage.The proper reconciliation is a calibration target in the facts lane:
ssn_card_type == NONE(and optionally the non-citizen total,!= CITIZEN), national grain to start.Depends on #266 landing (the label surface must exist before a target can bind on it).