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Restore US fiscal calibration targets#44

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MaxGhenis merged 1 commit into
mainfrom
codex/issue40-targets-20260614
Jun 14, 2026
Merged

Restore US fiscal calibration targets#44
MaxGhenis merged 1 commit into
mainfrom
codex/issue40-targets-20260614

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Summary

Closes #40.

This restores the US fiscal calibration target surface in Populace without reintroducing predecessor data-package dependencies. The package now ships a declarative fiscal target manifest with:

  • total federal individual income tax from the 2024 CBO calibration parameter
  • five JCT tax-expenditure rows encoded as simple neutralize-variable reform contracts
  • 51 state/DC individual income-tax collection targets
  • 400 SOI AGI/source distribution targets uprated to 2024

It also tightens target-profile gates so income_tax_positive cannot satisfy the total federal income-tax requirement, JCT rows must be precomputed income_tax(reform) - income_tax(baseline) rows rather than ordinary income_tax aggregates, and state income-tax coverage requires the actual 51-row state/DC surface.

Validation

  • env -u UV_FROZEN uv run --python 3.13 ruff format --check .
  • env -u UV_FROZEN uv run --python 3.13 ruff check .
  • env -u UV_FROZEN uv run --python 3.13 --all-packages --all-groups python -m pytest packages/populace-build/tests/test_us_fiscal_targets.py packages/populace-build/tests/test_gates.py -q
  • env -u UV_FROZEN uv run --python 3.13 --all-packages --all-groups python -m pytest -q
  • git diff --check
  • env -u UV_FROZEN uv build --package populace-build
  • confirmed wheel and sdist include populace/build/us/fiscal_targets.json
  • /cycle review: first pass found two gate loopholes; fixed and second pass found no actionable findings

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis merged commit 7cfcd77 into main Jun 14, 2026
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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis deleted the codex/issue40-targets-20260614 branch June 14, 2026 21:44
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US calibration does not pin federal income tax or AGI; base undershoots income tax ~18% — add SOI fiscal targets + a macro-realism gate

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