Skip to content

Week 10 (W05 Feb08) Global Climate Dataset

Jump to bottom
magiob edited this page Feb 8, 2017 · 55 revisions

Week 10 (W05 Feb08) Global Climate Dataset

1- Summary

For our final week, we concentrated all of our data analysis from previous weeks and selectively visualized the conclusions and results in order to obtain an overall understanding of our data, but also estimate the current climate situation (warming from 1960 till today). Our final goal was to predict the temperature 50 years after, in 2067 based on environmental factors. After analysis, correlation and research we concluded that these factors are the emissions, more specifically the greenhouse gases (CO2, nitrous oxide, methane etc). Out of these emissions 50% is emitted to the atmosphere, while rest is absorbed by surface and oceans. Lifetime of each emission type is also estimated and taken into consideration. Through our analysis we found out that the biggest contributors for all types of emissions are USA, China, India, Brazil, Russia, Germany. Based on correlation analysis we also identified the sources of these emissions globally but also for each country separately. In order to predict the temperature based on these emissions, we used a regression model. Based on MSE and relative error the optimal one is the polynomial regression of degree 3 with a rolling window of 4 years. Using this model we predicted the emissions for the biggest contributors and worldwide in 2067. Using these numbers we predicted the temperature rise for 2 case studies (Austria and USA) by employing a neural network. Finally, we predicted the variables that are positively correlated with the emissions.

2 - Dataset Stats

Global Climate Data (GCD) : Main Dataset

  • Number of files: 100.791
  • Format: .dly files (Complete Works Wordprocessing Template)
  • Size: 26.5 GB
  • Features: 46
  • Source Date: 1763 - 2016
  • Missing values: 43.9%

World Bank (WB) : Complementary Dataset

  • Number of files: 1
  • Format: .csv
  • Size: ~15 MB
  • Features: 82
  • Source Date: 1960 - 2016
  • Missing values: 49.2%

3 - Collective Analysis of our work

4 - Prediction of emissions

5 - Prediction of environmental variables

6 - Prediction of temperature

7 - Conclusions

  • Temperature rise is not taking place locally, but globally. Even if specific countries do not emit high amounts of emissions their temperature is equally affected by global emissions. [case studies: both Austria and USA are affected]

  • Northern Hemisphere is warming faster due to heat transport from oceans in the south

  • Warming of the planet is already apparent | 2-3 degrees Celsius on average per century

  • The biggest countries with high development contribute most to the climate change

  • CO2 is the major contributing factor

  • There is a positive correlation between emissions and temperature rise

  • There is also a positive correlation between emissions and some other environmental variables, implying the reasons behind their increase

  • Emissions are rising and so will the temperature (40 years cause-effect)

  • We predicted temperature rise of 1 degree Celsius on average by 2067

  • Predicting temperature in the future based on environmental and climate factors is complex and rather theoretical due to the unpredictable cause-effect and concept drift phenomenon

8 - Presentation Link

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1Oa9Ndtjd9ca7AzX3M_u1KBwyLaVx-AA5h8u7gwU2Ywg/edit#slide=id.g20d3887391_0_4

References

  1. Menne, M.J., I. Durre, R.S. Vose, B.E. Gleason, and T.G. Houston, 2012: An overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily Database. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 29, 897-910, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-11-00103.1.
  2. Menne, M.J., I. Durre, B. Korzeniewski, S. McNeal, K. Thomas, X. Yin, S. Anthony, R. Ray, R.S. Vose, B.E.Gleason, and T.G. Houston, 2012: Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily), Version 3. [indicate subset used following decimal, e.g. Version 3.12]. NOAA National Climatic Data Center. http://doi.org/10.7289/V5D21VHZ
  3. WB Dataset - http://data.worldbank.org
  4. Correlation Analysis - http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Multivariable/BS704_Multivariable5.html
  5. Climate change impacts on Austrian ski areas, Robert Steiger & Bruno Abegg (Link)
  6. HFCs? Curbing Them Is Key to Climate-Change Strategy (Op-Ed), Hallie Kennan, Energy Innovation: Policy and Technology (Link)
  7. How do we know more CO2 is causing warming? (Link)
  8. Effects of Global Warming [livescience.com]
  9. Living Warmer: How 2 Degrees Will Change Earth [livescience.com]
  10. In Warming, Northern Hemisphere is Outpacing the South [climatecentral.org]
  11. Climate Change: The 40 Year Delay Between Cause and Effect Posted on 22 September 2010 by alan_marshall [climatechangeanswers.org]
  12. How long do greenhouse gases stay in the air? [theguardian.com]

Clone this wiki locally