PBFE v1.2.0 — Revision additions

PBFE v1.2.0 adds the reviewed revision materials while preserving the v1.1.0 numerical implementation and reference outputs.

• D0–D4 state-by-scenario calculations for S0, S_R, and S_Q.
• The 15 nominal state/case results used in revised Table 3.
• 405 joint-COV sensitivity results.
• 45 one-module gamma replacement checks.
• Reproducibility scripts, provenance, and regression tests.
• Revised state/target figure support, including Figure 6 reproduction assets.

The calculations are conditional synthetic illustrations. The scenarios are not empirically calibrated interventions, and drought states are not aggregated into an annual risk measure.

See the revision guide and release provenance for reproduction instructions, verification, and interpretation limits.

PBFE Numerical Illustration v1.1.0 — UQ and Target-Oriented Extension

This release extends the reproducible reduced-form numerical illustration for the Performance-Based Food Engineering (PBFE) framework.

New in v1.1.0

• Continuous Monte Carlo verification of the synthetic conditional hierarchy.
• First-order reliability method (FORM) approximation at the illustrative DV = 1 limit.
• Local design-point directional-cosine diagnostics.
• Six one-dimensional synthetic parameter-to-target scenarios.
• A manuscript-facing target-oriented assessment figure.
• Machine-readable diagnostics, sensitivity results, and target profiles.
• A presentation-only update to the loss-exceedance figure that adds a small lower-axis margin without changing the numerical results.

The authoritative direct discrete exceedance probability remains:

P(DV > 1) = 0.09591450211754649

Continuous Monte Carlo verification gives:

• P(DV > 1) = 0.095851
• standard error = 0.0002943868
• N = 1,000,000
• seed = 20260810

The FORM approximation gives:

• beta = 1.22556
• P_FORM = 0.110182

For the illustrative 5% probability target, resolved one-dimensional parameter crossings are obtained for the LAI nominal mean, TFP-link nominal mean, normalized-loss nominal mean, and normalized-loss COV scenarios. No 5% crossing was resolved for the LAI-COV or TFP-COV scenario in the extended numerical search.

All numerical relationships and parameter scenarios are synthetic. They do not represent calibrated agricultural interventions, empirical economic models, or validated strategy rankings.

Validation

• Baseline tests: 5/5 passed
• UQ/target extension tests: 16/16 passed
• Combined tests: 21/21 passed

PBFE Reduced-Form Numerical Illustration v1.0.0

Initial public release of the reproducible reduced-form numerical illustration for the Performance-Based Food Engineering (PBFE) framework.

This release includes:

• deterministic PBFE numerical propagation code;
• numerical unit tests;
• manuscript-facing synthetic figures;
• machine-readable numerical summary; and
• documentation of the illustrative model scope and assumptions.

The implemented reduced path is:

IM -> PRP (LAI) -> Q proxy (TFP) -> DV (normalized loss)

The repository does not contain empirical agricultural data or an end-to-end calibrated PBFE implementation.