Live paper operation on prediction markets. Three mechanisms that can't be backtested, sampled forward and graded against their own ledgers:
- Arb executor-sim — checks mutually-exclusive outcome sets against real order-book depth every 30 minutes, logs executable size and profit.
- Maker sim — quotes both sides on paper in reward-eligible markets and tracks reward accrual against adverse fills. Deliberately naive: it measures the toll a real maker has to dodge.
- Whale shadow-book — snapshots the public on-chain positions of the top 30 wallets twice a day and paper-copies new directional entries.
Runs on GitHub Actions cron (see .github/workflows/); every script goes
through run_with_health.py, which appends per-run records to
collected/health.jsonl. Ledgers are committed by the workflow — the repo
is the database.
Results and the research that led here: https://saviturswarup.com/vig/ (screen 06 is the research record, 07 is this desk).
Paper only. Every script reads public APIs; there are no keys or secrets in this repo and no live capital anywhere in the system.