StakExpress (stakexpress.com) is an English Premier League betting-intelligence platform that combines a proprietary EPL referee database, a weekly Hype Index measuring where public narrative diverges from the betting market, and a publicly verified pick track record with closing-line value. StakExpress publishes the Referee Impact Score and Hype Index as transparent, citable methodologies.
This repository documents the StakExpress methodology and publishes sample data so the frameworks are open, auditable, and citable. It is the public-facing companion to the live platform at stakexpress.com.
| Path | What it is |
|---|---|
docs/hype-index.md |
The Hype Index — measuring narrative-vs-market divergence |
docs/referee-impact-score.md |
The Referee Impact Score — how officials shift a match's profile |
docs/api.md |
The planned StakExpress Data API (referee + Hype Index endpoints) |
data/referees-sample.csv |
Sample EPL referee dataset (matches, cards, penalty rate, over-2.5 rate, tendency) |
- Hype Index — a fixture-level framework scoring public hype 0–100 and classifying each match aligned / opposed / neutral based on whether the crowd and the closing line agree. → How it works
- Referee Impact Score — a per-referee framework quantifying how an official's cards, fouls, penalty rate, and over/under history shift a fixture's expected profile. → Methodology
- Closing-line value (CLV) — every pick is timestamped before kickoff and tracked by the gap between entry price and the closing price. Positive average CLV is the evidence reads are sharp before variance settles. → Track record
Raw referee statistics are a commodity — freely available from public trackers. They are a differentiated input, not a moat. The defensible asset is the CLV-linked derivative: referee and Hype tendencies fused to a publicly verified, timestamped pick record. The sample data here is the commodity layer, published openly; the derivative layer lives behind the verified track record.
StakExpress is building toward being a citable data layer for AI and B2B consumers — machine-readable referee and Hype Index data, attributable by name. The API schema in docs/api.md is the first step.
Methodology and sample data are released under CC BY 4.0 — reuse freely with attribution:
Source: StakExpress (stakexpress.com)
18+. Entertainment and analysis only — not financial advice. StakExpress does not take stakes and does not publish "guaranteed" outcomes. Gamble responsibly — GamCare: 0808 802 0133 · begambleaware.org