ETMOD findings ledger — ET_2025 full-surface validation (2 entries)

[MaxGhenis]

This is the outward-facing ledger of divergences we observed between ETMOD (SOUTHMOD Ethiopia, bundle A4.0, system ET_2025 = EFY2025/26, dataset et_2022_a2) and the governing Ethiopian instruments, found while building statutorily-grounded encodings of the ET_2025 policy surface and validating them case-by-case against ETMOD as the household-level oracle. Every encoded amount comes verbatim from captured official prints (including the Ministry of Finance archive copy of the Income Tax (Amendment) Proclamation No. 1395/2025); every divergence was observed live and is dispositioned in the oracle suite that covers it.

Model findings (2) — both in the Minimum Alternative Tax that Proclamation No. 1395/2025 introduced shortly before ETMOD v4.0 shipped:

#	Finding (probed live, adjudicated against the Article 23 text)
1	ETMOD adds the full 2.5%-of-turnover minimum tax to the scheduled business income tax; Article 23(3) provides the minimum "shall be reduced by business income tax under Article 18 paid in the tax year" — i.e., a floor (pay the greater of the two, with the excess creditable up to five years). Probed: tin02_s = 81,000 birr where the statutory payable is 75,000 (3,000,000 receipts / 60,000 taxable income)
2	ETMOD levies the minimum tax on taxpayers under the Article 49 total gross revenue tax regime (Category "B", annual receipts ≤ Birr 2,000,000), whom Article 23(4) expressly excludes ("This Article shall not apply to a taxpayer under the total gross revenue tax regime set out in Article 49"). Probed: tin02_s = 1,250 at 50,000 receipts alongside the presumptive ttn_s = 1,000 — double-taxing presumptive-regime businesses

Verified exact everywhere else: the Article 11 monthly employment schedule to the birr at eight incomes (on the statutorily-correct gross base — Proclamation 979/2016 Arts. 10(3) and 65(1)(c) grant employees no deduction, and ETMOD agrees); the annual business schedule; the Article 50 presumptive schedule at every band; pension contribution shares (7% employee / 11% employer, Proclamation 715/2011; the 25% military-and-police office rate, Proclamation 714/2011 Art. 11); VAT at 15% with the Directive No. 1021/2024 domestic electricity (200 kWh) and water (15 m³) monthly thresholds behaving identically in both engines; and the composed disposable-income identity across the full income grid.

Scope notes (not findings): the PSNP transfer amounts are not independently groundable — the rural wage is a market-basket basis in the PSNP-IV PIM (3 kg cereal + 0.8 kg pulses per day) and the urban parameters trace to the non-digitized MUDC 2016 PIM; the school-feeding, school-uniform and fuel-subsidy values are, per the ETMOD country report's own source notes, authors' compilations. These are documented as dispositions, with the PSNP-IV PIM captured for the structures.

Canonical artifacts

• Program tracker with the closing ledger: ETMOD full-surface parity program #1
• Machine-readable entries with probed values: axiom_oracles/data/etmod_issues.json (on the oracle review chain)
• Per-suite dispositions: the comparisons/et-*.yaml configs in axiom-oracles

Scope and discipline. The SOUTHMOD bundle is licensed and non-redistributable: only comparison statistics and ETMOD-produced values are recorded. Corrections and context from the ETMOD/SOUTHMOD team are very welcome in this thread — particularly on the Article 23 reading, which is new law.