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WDB 12.9.25-19 - the odds appear in the game

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@WebDevBarCoder WebDevBarCoder released this 29 Jul 02:26
· 291 commits to webdevbar since this release

Fork build on upstream 12.9.25.

The odds appear inside the game

A small rounded plate at the bottom of the screen shows the favoured side's probability
during a draft, so it can be read without looking at another window. Blue or red for which
side, one number, and nothing at all when neither side is favoured - inside the middle
band the model is right 50.2% of the time across 705 predictions, so "no favourite" and
"nothing worth showing" are the same condition. The plate appearing is itself the first
half of the signal.

Two new commands install and remove it. A collection run never installs it on its own:
absence is a decision, and a run that quietly restored something you deleted would be the
tool overriding you.

It sits below every band the automation reads and every point it taps, and it is detached
rather than blanked whenever it has nothing to say - the only state provably identical to
not having the overlay at all.

The odds themselves

  • The rating gap is now a measured step rather than a stated table. Nothing under 100
    points, then a flat edge beyond it. Over 95 rated matches that scored 7.6x its own
    standard error and won 23 of 25 splits, against the old nine-band table's 2.9x and
    18/25. Two findings: gaps under 100 are worth nothing, and past 100, more gap is not
    more edge.
  • Another theme's matches are discarded rather than discounted. Themes change the
    roster and the battlefield - a hero banned in one theme has no strength to carry into
    the next - so after a rotation the model starts from nothing and the display says so.
  • The crowd's betting split stays out, and the hero model stays at full strength.

Also

  • The log prints the fork's own version: App Version: 12.9.25 WDB Version: 12.9.25-19.
  • Draft screenshots can be kept, off by default, under a new WDB Modes setting - so a new
    idea about reading something off the draft can be tested against matches already
    collected instead of waiting weeks.

Notes for anyone else running this

The overlay APK is 9KB of plain Java and ships inside the app. On Waydroid the install
sets pm.dexopt.install=skip first, because its ahead-of-time compiler hangs for 570
seconds on a 4KB dex and wedges the package installer; with that set it installs in 25
seconds. Nothing needs configuring outside AdbAutoPlayer.