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Fix or quarantine the flaky tests that make CI cost double #19534

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@yihua

A flaky test is paid for twice: once when the job fails and once on the retry, and it also teaches contributors to re-run rather than read a red check. With the runner budget now a hard constraint, flakiness is a budget problem, not only an annoyance.

Establish which tests are actually flaky from CI history, quarantine them out of the PR path, and fix them behind that. The migrated JIRAs #16740, #16207 and #15248 have partial lists from the Azure Pipelines era.

Part of #19524.

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    area:ciCI/CD relatedarea:testsTesting-relatedpriority:highSignificant impact; potential bugs

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