docs(consumer-matrix-pnpm-flake): investigation done.md — verdict (c) INCONCLUSIVE, 20/20 container runs green, reopen trigger armed

[artyhoo]

Summary

Harvest of the consumer-matrix-pnpm-flake investigation (aif task 66c203e4). Verdict: (c) INCONCLUSIVE — 20/20 in-container reproduction runs passed with the in-situ rc+stderr capture armed; zero failing invocations captured, so the binding discriminator (crash-shaped vs genuine-inertness) had no input. Statistical note: at the observed ~30% CI rate, 0/20 has p≈0.0008 — most plausibly the CI burst was a transient registry-window that has rolled forward; the warm-store-vs-cold-runner gap is recorded as the unclosed alternative. No retry wrapper proposed (T-CMF-A). Reopen trigger armed on the exact CI signature.

Changes

• .claude/orchestrator-prompts/consumer-matrix-pnpm-flake/done.md — the umbrella's research note: reproduction stats, verdict evidence (every file:line re-verified by the cold auditor), environment-gap table, reopen trigger, 3 drive-by observations for maintainer triage (:197 stderr/rc swallow fix; 16/24 unpinned CORE_DEVDEPS; NODE_ENV=production dep-omission), host-verify contract recorded verbatim.
• Harvest-side edit: two broken links fixed (container-only .ai-factory/plans/ path de-linked; ../../CLAUDE.md → ../../../CLAUDE.md) — caught by the host pre-push link gate.

Prior-art consult

• No capability commits — docs-only investigation note.
• New capability area: n/a.
• Existing entries: n/a.
• context7 queries: n/a.

Test plan

• Host pre-push gates green (link check passed after fixes; full hook ran in provisioned worktree)
• Cold fidelity audit round 1 = GO on the audited SHA
• Host-verify smoke executed on the HOST (Darwin): «host smoke: 0/3 failed», host-verify 1/1 passed (HOST_VERIFY_TIMEOUT=3600; host env gap per T14: node v24.3.0 vs CI 22, global pnpm 11.9.0 vs fixture-pinned 9.12.3)
• CI on this PR green

Provenance

kickoff: .claude/orchestrator-prompts/consumer-matrix-pnpm-flake/kickoff.md (staging 025aac054c) · substrate: aif task 66c203e4-bbac-43b1-b02d-3345e2becc66, no bridge-profile marker (Tier 2 → project defaults: plan = Claude Opus (plan+review), implement = Z.AI GLM-5.2 SDK) · fidelity Round 1 on 3b201a6569c535c378744201a1f7d8121eaaaed3

Review findings

Factory review: task completed the aif pipeline (implementing → done). Cold fidelity audit round 1: GO with 4 MINOR (no cold-store run-#1 datapoint; step-2 "plugin-unresolvable window" answered only implicitly; reopen recipe cites ephemeral container path, recoverable from kickoff; host-verify owed) and one KICKOFF-AMBIGUOUS routed to the maintainer: the kickoff calls the check-rule-enforced.sh:197 stderr/rc fix "a deterministic improvement on ANY outcome" while §Acceptance conditions any fix PR on verdicts (a)/(b) — the diff descoped it yet made it the precondition of its own reopen trigger, leaving that precondition unowned.

Watch-list

id	criterion	why	defect site	reintroduction tell
W-1	kickoff §To-investigate 4 + T-CMF-A — no retry/rerun wrapper or quieting of the (c) gate	hypothesis 2 is unruled-out, not disproven; a retry makes a real intermittent installer defect permanently invisible	none — preventive (no code changed this round; stated at done.md:12)	any continue-on-error, retry loop, || true, or widened 2>/dev/null around tests/consumer-matrix/pnpm-monorepo-cell.sh or the cell step at .github/workflows/audit-self.yml:1503-1504
W-2	kickoff §Acceptance + step 4(c) — verdict stays (c) INCONCLUSIVE with coverage-as-predicates	0/20 is a coverage statement, not an absence proof (T14); an upgraded verdict silently retires the reopen trigger	none — preventive (done.md:8)	any later edit replacing «neither ruled out nor confirmed» with «no bug» / «infra flake» / «resolved», or deletion of the ## Reopen trigger (binding) section
W-3	kickoff §To-investigate 2 — the :197 swallowed-stderr/rc defect stays recorded as open	the reopen trigger's discriminating power depends on it; if it drops, the next occurrence yields the same ambiguous signature and the investigation restarts from zero	packages/core/audit-self/check-rule-enforced.sh:197 (unchanged; surfaced at done.md:77)	observation 1 removed from done.md, or a follow-up PR touching :197 cosmetically without adding rc capture plus a distinct crash-shaped message
W-4	kickoff §Acceptance host-verify — the host smoke is owed and is not the container run	a container-green result is not host evidence — accepting on it is #container-green-as-acceptance	none — preventive (done.md:85 declares it unexecuted)	an acceptance note or PR body citing «20/20 passed» as the host-verify result, or the HOST_VERIFY_TIMEOUT=3600 override dropped from the operator step (a 900s kill then misreads as failure)

Round 1: W-1 CLEAN · W-2 CLEAN · W-3 CLEAN · W-4 CLEAN

Fidelity verdict

FIDELITY: GO
Basis: .claude/orchestrator-prompts/consumer-matrix-pnpm-flake/kickoff.md
Round: 1
Audited-SHA: 3b201a6
Evidence: .claude/orchestrator-prompts/consumer-matrix-pnpm-flake/done.md:8

Parked questions

• KICKOFF-AMBIGUOUS (routed to maintainer): fix packages/core/audit-self/check-rule-enforced.sh:197 (capture rc+stderr, distinct crash-shaped message, ~10 LOC) in a separate PR? It is the stated precondition of the reopen trigger and currently unowned.
• Drive-by observation 2 (separate PR candidate): pin the 16/24 unpinned CORE_DEVDEPS at setup.d/70-deps.sh:158-167, or extend the unpinned-tool-install gate to array-data-driven installs.

§1.7 Self-discipline check (REQUIRED if PR touches discipline-bearing files)

§1.7 Skipped: docs-only investigation note under orchestrator-prompts; no discipline rule introduced or extended