Forecasting electricity prices for Fairbanks, AK

Overview: Electricity is a basic necessity. Especially in the context of Alaska, where temperatures get as low as 50 degrees Fahrenheit in the winter, electricity is more needed than any other state. However, prices have been fluctuating heavily, on the upward trend, for the past several years, stemming from regulations changes, its continued reliance on coal and natural gas, as well as a lack of infrastructure in place to sustain off-grid communities. Not to mention the current energy crisis with the natural gas shortage in Cook Inlet, which supplies most of the Railbelt’s natural gas, there is a need for forecasting changes in electricity prices.

Models Deployed:

• SARIMA
• SARIMAX
• LSTM

Data Sources:

• EIA-923
• GVEA Residential Rates
• RCA Filings