socioeconomic
- type of model: --
- features of model: --
- developed by: Luuk Fleskens (University Wageningen)
- project status: intended
add short description of the model!
In which way does your model help us to improve our understanding of the mechanisms and processes that cause sudden shifts in dryland ecosystems?
The economic model to be developed will not provide understanding in the biophysical mechanisms and processes that cause sudden shifts in dryland ecosystems. However, it may provide insights into why sudden shifts are not being prevented (i.e. pressures leading to sudden shifts not being reduced).
Has your model helped to identify early warning signals and indicators for sudden shifts in drylands? If so, which ones?
No, the economic model will use early warning signals to inform management strategies. There could be second order early warning signals (economic signals, e.g. declining productivity per goat or weight loss) that can serve as proxies for first order degradation patterns that could be explored.
Can your model predict where, when and under which conditions catastrophic shifts are likely to occur in European drylands?
To a certain degree – the model aims to indicate where, when and under which conditions catastrophic shifts can be avoided (i.e. management strategies pay off)
Can your model simulate what effect SLM measures would have? Can your models tell us which sustainable land management (SLM) measures should be taken to prevent shifts?
Yes, this is essential to evaluate the potential for preventing occurrence of catastrophic shifts. Measures will need to be parameterised, and explicitly considered in the analyses. Timing of implementing SLM measures will also be explicitly considered.
Does your model provide any information on possibilities for restoration if a tipping point has already occurred?
Yes, given that biophysical models can assess restoration potentials after a tipping point has occurred, the cost/benefit ratio of not undertaking timely measures before the tipping point can be compared to a scenario where restoration starts after a tipping point has occurred. Given emphasis of economic theory on social time preference and discounting of future benefits, it is likely that the economic options for restoration are much less attractive than prevention/mitigation. Please explain your answers in a few sentences, as obviously we are also interested in how your model does these things, or why it is suited/not suited.
The text provided on these websites is collaborative work within the CASCADE WP6 Team. Responsible lead author is Florian D. Schneider.
CASCADE WP 6 Documentation is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
