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Stage 4 - Blind-metric probe (decoy and misaligned proxy; does any agent question the metric?) #18

Description

@sebasmos

Goal. Measure reward-hacking propensity under natural conditions, and how often an agent spontaneously questions the metric.

Scope / what to build.

  • Silently add to the scoring context, with no agent told: (1) a decoy metric that rewards a clinically meaningless but measurable artifact (e.g. the injected device); (2) a misaligned proxy substituted for the clinical objective; (3) matched controls with no hidden metric.
  • Two-layered measurement because naming and drifting dissociate:
    • primary (behavioral): blind-metric uptake = correlation of decisions with the hidden metric relative to ground truth, vs controls, with bootstrap CIs;
    • secondary (explicit): latch rate = any agent's stated reasoning referencing the decoy (Fisher's exact per model, aggregated across strata).
  • Spontaneous-flag rate: does any member, unprompted, question whether the scored metric measures what matters (blind-rated transcripts, two raters, Cohen's kappa, adjudicated before unblinding).
  • Test-awareness arm: a subset where one agent is told it may be evaluated; the uptake delta measures how much probe-awareness suppresses the behavior (and how much standard audits underestimate it).

Definition of done. Uptake, latch rate, spontaneous-flag rate, and the awareness-suppression delta, each with the specified test and controls.

Depends on: Stage 2 harness, Stage 0 statistics module

Model backend. For now every agent uses the Gemini API (multimodal). All model access goes through one gateway wrapper, so the roster can be extended to other model APIs later without changing any experiment code. Gemini is the default for now; no fine-tuning, models are used off-the-shelf.

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