feat(scoring): Issue #67 follow-up — per-sector value_trap_risk delta instrumentation#300
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…ULD-FIX cross-doc drifts (#301) Comprehensive .md housekeeping closing today's 11-PR session day. Output of docs-reviewer (sonnet) full Tier 1 + Tier 2 audit on main (post-PR-#299) — verdict NEEDS-CROSS-REF-FIX with 14 prioritized findings; this PR applies all 8 MUST-FIX + 6 SHOULD-FIX. 3 NICE-TO-FIX deferred to follow-up. Scope (7 files, doc-only): - SKILL.md schema-version history table (line 240) — prepend 2 new rows: 0.10.9-phase4.6 (PR #297, 4 *_wall_clock_seconds fields + 195m timeout + cache canary, empirically validated cron Run #71) + 0.10.10-phase4.6 (PR #300 in flight — Issue #67 follow-up per- sector delta). Closes the canonical-history gap where PR #297 + PR #300 were absent. - PHASE_STATUS.md §Current state — schema row 0.10.8 → 0.10.9 + PR #300 in-flight note; Post-tag production patches row extended with PR #295/#296/#297/#298/#299 SHAs + one-liners; Production run pointer 0ad1d57 cron #69 → 368dccd cron Run #71 with the PR #297 wall-clock empirical numbers + Issue #288 cache-replay smoking gun (multi_class_per_class_attempt_count=0 + fundamentals_latency_p50_seconds=0.0). Recently merged block extended 6 → 11 PRs. Issue closure status updated. Next deliverables refreshed: Issue #67 flip removed (PR #294 already executed); item 2 now = Issue #287 PR B FORM4 revert; PR #300 per-sector delta added as item 3. Open issues list refreshed (#288 + #289 marked closed; #287 PR A vs PR B split). - CLAUDE.md §Phase status Recently merged block — extended 6 → 11 PRs with full SHA + one-liner per PR. New "In flight" sub-section added for PR #300. - AGENTS.md §Phase + version state — Production-verified run cron #69 (233117a, 13m 16s) → cron Run #71 (368dccd, 14m 32s, 2026-05-28 08:44 UTC, schema 0.10.7 → 0.10.9-phase4.6); 4 new wall-clock field values cited; Issue #288 cache-replay smoking gun captured; closed-issue note for #288 + #289 + #287 PR A. - CONTEXT.md §Live snapshot — schema 0.10.8 → 0.10.9 + PR #300 in-flight note; new "Post-tag patches" row listing PRs #292-#299 + PR #300 in flight; cron status cron #69 2026-05-27 → Run #71 2026-05-28; Sector-CoE row updated with empirical 132 → 109; §Roadmap Stage 0 description refreshed. - WORKFLOW.md §Agentic 6-Phase Cadence session-start protocol — inline schema 0.10.7-phase4.6 replaced with current 0.10.9-phase4.6 + pointer guidance to PHASE_STATUS.md §Current state as the canonical bump-per-schema-PR target. Closes the recurring inline- schema drift pattern. - PHASE_STATUS_INFLIGHT.md — this PR's in-flight entry appended per PR #237 side-file convention. docs-reviewer lockstep cross-check after this PR: - SCHEMA_VERSION: ALIGNED across all 6 canonical docs at 0.10.9-phase4.6 with PR #300 in-flight note where applicable - Defense layer 33 declared: ALIGNED (was already) - USE_SECTOR_COE = True post-PR #294: ALIGNED (was stale in AGENTS.md issue #67 framing + PHASE_STATUS.md Next deliverables; both fixed) - Subagent count 18: ALIGNED (was already) - Skill count 45: ALIGNED (was already) - Latest cron Run #71 368dccd: ALIGNED (was stale in AGENTS.md + PHASE_STATUS.md + CONTEXT.md; all fixed) - Issue #288 + #289 closure status: ALIGNED (was stale as open in AGENTS.md + PHASE_STATUS.md; both fixed) 3 NICE-TO-FIX deferred: - README.md Honest Limitations does not reference Phase 4.6 honest re-validation harness (PR #283). Coverage gap, not break. - WORKFLOW.md Phase 4.5 row cites v1.2.0; technically closed at v1.3.0-phase4.5e. Historical-context only. - METHODOLOGY.md USE_SECTOR_COE framing needs verification before edit. Hard constraints honored: - No code / scoring / schema / valuation / Rule 16 / Top-5 invariant touched - No new defense flag · No new dep · No new env-var - Markdown-only diff (no JSON / YAML / Python / TS change) - Schema version UNCHANGED on main at 0.10.9-phase4.6 (PR #300 will bump 0.10.10 on its merge) - AGENTS.md substance lockstep with CLAUDE.md per the established delegation pattern Verification: - ruff check . PASS (no Python touched) - python -m compute.output.schema_check PASS (no schema touched) - pytest tests/ -m "not network" N/A (no test surface) - Cross-reference grep — all 7 anchor strings consistent across all 6 docs after fix https://claude.ai/code/session_01AGU8d6pm4u2fQQ5cebg9qa Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
… instrumentation Methodology-scientist Mode B Q2 follow-up deferred from PR #294 (sector- CoE flip, 2026-05-28 05:39 UTC). Adds `Metadata.value_trap_risk_delta_by_sector: dict[str, int] | None` so Q3 2026-08-19 quarterly cohort audit has visible per-sector shape evidence — not just the aggregate `value_trap_risk_count_*_sector_coe` scalars that landed in PR #204. Schema PATCH bump 0.10.9 → 0.10.10-phase4.6 (additive Metadata-only). Methodology context (Damodaran 2019 Ch. 8.4 §"Industry Beta"): After `USE_SECTOR_COE = True` per-sector Ke replaces the flat 10% baseline at SECTOR_COST_OF_EQUITY (11 GICS sectors, Ke 6%-12%). Directional predictions: - Lower-Ke sectors (Utilities ~6-7% / Real Estate ~7-8% / Consumer Staples ~7-8%): ROE ≥ Ke threshold relaxed → fewer RIM-skipped → POSITIVE delta (sector DROPPED flags) - Higher-Ke sectors (Information Technology ~11-12% / Energy ~10-12%): ROE ≥ Ke tightened → more RIM-skipped → NEGATIVE delta - Neutral sectors (6 GICS sectors at ~9-11%): small delta near zero Cron #69 + Run #71 universe-wide already confirmed the aggregate: 132 → 109 (−23 tickers, −17.4%). This PR breaks the −23 down by sector. Scope (10 files, additive only): - compute/output/schemas.py — new value_trap_risk_delta_by_sector field with full docstring (methodology-scientist verdict + Damodaran 2019 anchor + direction semantics) - frontend/lib/types.ts — mirror TS field as Record<string, number> | null - frontend/lib/schema-snapshot.json — regenerated via --update-snapshot - compute/config.py — SCHEMA_VERSION = "0.10.10-phase4.6" - compute/main.py — 3 surgical edits mirroring existing scalar dual-counter pattern (init two dict[str, int] counters / per-sector increment co-located with the existing scalar bump in both branches / delta computation in Metadata constructor) - tests/test_config.py — schema version pin bump + docstring rewrite - tests/test_output/test_value_trap_delta_by_sector_schema.py (NEW) — 2 active GREEN schema-contract tests (mirror test_wall_clock_schema.py pattern from PR #297) - CLAUDE.md — §Phase status pointer block refresh - AGENTS.md — open-issues #67 status: flip landed + per-sector follow-up in flight this PR - PHASE_STATUS_INFLIGHT.md — full in-flight entry per PR #237 side-file convention Implementation note: Per-sector dict construction uses `sorted(set(without) | set(with))` for stable key ordering; `.get(sec, 0)` fallback handles sectors appearing in only one path; `{} or None` falls back to None when both dicts are empty (test-mode universe). Co-located with the existing scalar bump in both `_rim_flat` (flat-Ke) and `_rim_sector` (sector-Ke) branches at the same `value_trap_risk_roe_below_cost_of_equity` reason guard — scalar and dict always stay in lockstep. Verification ladder: - ruff check . PASS - python -m compute.output.schema_check PASS (triple in sync 0.10.10) - pytest tests/test_config.py -v 11/11 PASS (pin held) - python -m pytest tests/test_output/ 2/2 NEW PASS - Full offline suite via test-engineer 1367 → 1369 (+2 NEW) Pre-push 3-reviewer gate: - schema-sentinel (sonnet) PASS (52 fields, triple aligned, PATCH bump correct, snapshot alphabetical ordering held) - test-engineer (sonnet) GREEN (2/2 new tests pass, 1367 → 1369, 0 regressions, 0 skipped stubs) - quantrank-reviewer (opus) READY-TO-PUSH (0 FAIL, 4 WARN all pre-existing PR-#297-era drift, defer to next housekeeping PR — incl. SKILL.md/PHASE_STATUS.md schema-table tops still on 0.10.8) Empirical validation gate (post-merge, next cron Run #72): - metadata.value_trap_risk_delta_by_sector populates as non-null dict - Damodaran shape directionally correct: Util/Real Estate/Staples POSITIVE, Information Technology/Energy NEGATIVE - sum(delta.values()) == without_sector_coe_count - with_sector_coe_count (= 23 per Run #71 universe-wide; matches within rounding) Note: per-sector accumulation runs in the Step 8 per-ticker loop, INDEPENDENT of cache-v5 cache busting (PR #298). Field populates on next cron regardless of warm/cold fetch path. Hard constraints honored: - No new defense flag · No scoring formula change · No Rule 16 / Top-5 violation - Additive-only schema change (PATCH bump) - Field nullable per Rule 18 graceful-degradation - Phase 4.5e PR 5 (cluster weight promotion) gate-data UNCHANGED — independent track Methodology decision: methodology-scientist verdict NOT re-requested — this is the EXACT field shape Mode B Q2 verdict from PR #294 explicitly authorized. Future re-trigger only if post-merge cron shows sector breakdown contradicting Damodaran prediction OR Q3 2026-08-19 audit reads ≥ 6 crons of data and per-sector decay pattern needs interpretation. https://claude.ai/code/session_01AGU8d6pm4u2fQQ5cebg9qa
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PR #293 (95e638b, merged 2026-05-28 05:20 UTC) retired the Site-2 output-level data-quality ceiling per methodology-scientist Mode B Option C verdict (Penman 2013 §7.4 + Damodaran 2019 Ch. 18 + Huber 1981 §1.4). PR #293 deleted the call site at compute/valuation/ ensemble.py Step 4.5 but RETAINED the 2 helper functions as dead code for "one cycle hold" — explicit retention guard pinned the deferred state. This PR closes that contract. Cron Run #71 (368dccd, 2026-05-28 08:44 UTC) confirmed clean operation: - NVR fair-price section renders correctly (was empty pre-PR-#293) - valuation_output_anomalous cohort dropped 5 → 4 (NVR removed) - No regression on Site-1 veto cohort (MTB / CPT / MRNA / HBAN per PR #265 writer-parity emit still firing) Scope (8 files, net −41 lines): - compute/valuation/ensemble.py — REMOVED 2 dead functions: - _has_corrupt_input(methods) -> bool (13 lines) - _data_quality_corrupt_result(methods) -> EnsembleResult (43 lines) Step 4.5 comment block at lines 449-479 refreshed: "kept as dead code for one cycle" → "removed in this PR after cron Run #71 confirmed clean". - tests/test_valuation/test_ensemble.py — REMOVED 2 imports + 3 active tests that exercised the removed functions: - test_data_quality_sanity_guard_triggers_on_extreme_method_value - test_data_quality_guard_boundary_exactly_at_ceiling - test_data_quality_guard_skipped_methods_dont_trigger The one-cycle retention guard test_L2_dead_code_functions_still_ callable_after_site2_deletion REPLACED with new test_L2_dead_code_functions_removed_post_one_cycle that pins the removal via `not hasattr(_ensemble, "_has_corrupt_input")` + `not hasattr(_ensemble, "_data_quality_corrupt_result")` — so a future accidental re-introduction surfaces as a clear "Issue #289 retirement reverted" failure. The 2 surviving tests (test_site2_data_quality_guard_retired_post_issue_289 + test_L3_site2_ceiling_not_invoked_for_high_share_price_ticker) keep verifying POST-RETIREMENT invariants on the NVR cohort. - compute/config.py:127-148 — FAIR_PRICE_DATA_QUALITY_CEILING STAYS ACTIVE (Site-1 in compute/scoring/risk_overlay.py shares the constant). Comment block updated to note "dead-code helpers REMOVED in the PR #293 follow-up after cron Run #71 confirmed clean". - compute/valuation/applicability.py:65-78 — reference to _data_quality_corrupt_result replaced with reference to the writer-parity emit at compute/main.py on the Site-1 veto cohort. - tests/test_scoring/test_risk_overlay.py:520-528 — test_D4_data_quality_corruption_fires_at_boundary_strict docstring updated: "Mirrors _has_corrupt_input's strict inequality" → "Site-1 (here) is the canonical input-corruption guard. Site-2 was retired per Issue #289 Option C; the strict `>` invariant lives ONLY here now." Test logic UNCHANGED. - CLAUDE.md §Phase status — drained "(in flight this PR — Issue #67 follow-up)" wording (PR #300 merged); added in-flight note for this PR's Site-2 dead-code removal. - AGENTS.md open-issues #289 entry — appended "dead-code helpers REMOVED in the PR #293 follow-up after cron Run #71 confirmed the retirement empirically". - PHASE_STATUS_INFLIGHT.md — full in-flight entry appended per PR #237 side-file convention. Verification ladder: - ruff check . PASS - python -m compute.output.schema_check PASS (no schema touched) - python -m pytest tests/test_valuation/test_ensemble.py tests/test_scoring/test_risk_overlay.py tests/test_config.py -q 120 PASS (was 123 — net -3 as planned: 3 deleted tests + 1 modified L2 guard) - grep -rn "_has_corrupt_input|_data_quality_corrupt_result" compute/ tests/ only legitimate references remain (retirement comments + new removal-guard assertion strings) Hard constraints honored: - No scoring formula change · No Rule 16 / Top-5 violation - Schema version UNCHANGED at 0.10.10-phase4.6 - Site-1 input-corruption veto path UNCHANGED - FAIR_PRICE_DATA_QUALITY_CEILING constant retained (Site-1 shared) - Writer-parity valuation_output_anomalous emit at compute/main.py UNCHANGED — UI explanation chip continues for Site-1 cohort - test_L3 PR #293 end-to-end guard UNCHANGED — keeps verifying NVR cohort produces non-null median Closes the PR #293 retirement contract. https://claude.ai/code/session_01AGU8d6pm4u2fQQ5cebg9qa Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Pre-merge production simulation
Diff vs main
Main baseline: Top-10 movers (sorted by |Δcomposite_score|)
Tickers in main only (1): |
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…al footgun #1) (#303) * feat(scoring): Phase 4.5e PR 6 — Form-4 10b5-1 negation guard (residual footgun #1) Closes the residual of footgun #1 from `compute/scoring/form4_signals.py` module docstring + the PR 4-eq Mode B verdict (2026-05-23, pre-approved "harden detect_10b5_1_plan with a negation guard against FP matches on phrases like '10b5-1 plan terminated'"). PR 6 implements the engineering of the approved mitigation. **Architecture** — post-detector wrapper: - `compute/scoring/form4_insider.py` gains `_NEGATION_PATTERNS` (11 tokens) + `_NEGATION_REGEX` (compiled bidirectional regex; case-insensitive; accepts both `10b5-1` and `10b-5-1` spellings; ±5 word-token window) + `_has_negation()` helper + thread-safe module-level counter - `_detect_10b5_1_on_transaction` modified: detector returns True → check `_has_negation(resolved_text)` → on match return False and bump the counter; detector returns False or None → pass through unchanged. Guard never fabricates a positive signal (only downgrades True → False). **Schema** `0.10.10 → 0.10.11-phase4.6` (PATCH — additive Metadata field). Triple touched: Pydantic + TypeScript + snapshot regenerated; verified clean via `python -m compute.output.schema_check`. **Rule 18 observability**: new `Metadata.form4_negation_guard_downgrade_count: int | None`. Counter is module-level + thread-safe (`threading.Lock` around an int) for the `EDGAR_MAX_WORKERS=8` parallel Form-4 fetch loop. `compute/main.py` resets before the `ThreadPoolExecutor` block and reads on the success path. `None` semantics mirrors `form4_wall_clock_seconds`: None when `FORM4_FETCH_SKIP=1` OR outer try/except fired. **Methodology** — pre-approved (no fresh consultation needed). Expected delta firing-rate per Cohen 2008 §III + Jagolinzer 2009 §3.2: `insider_sell_cluster` +5% to +10% relative on a universe-baseline cron (absolute << 1%; most 10b5-1 disclosures are affirmative). Bias direction reversed: was conservative (over-excluded legit opportunistic trades); now closer to ground truth (terminated + former plans no longer fire). **Tests** — 33 new tests in `tests/test_scoring/test_form4_negation_guard.py`: 13 pattern coverage (parametrized) + 5 negative paths + 2 ±5-token window boundary + 2 spelling variants + 5 `_detect_10b5_1_on_transaction` integration with mocked footnotes_dict + 2 thread-safety (incl. 100 concurrent bumps / 8 workers) + 2 Hypothesis properties (idempotence + monotonicity) + 2 manifest pins. Suite 1366 → 1399; zero regressions; ruff clean. `tests/test_config.py` schema pin bumped with PR 6 rationale. **Defense layer unchanged** at 33 declared boolean flags (PR hardens an existing input filter; no new flag). Cluster + C-suite weights UNCHANGED (5.0 / 3.0; promotion to 7.0 still gated on Q3 2026-08-19 audit per PR 4-eq verdict). **Closes**: residual of footgun #1 (Form-4 10b5-1 contamination) from `compute/scoring/form4_signals.py` module docstring. 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com> * fix(scoring): PR 6 review WARN-2 + WARN-3 cleanup quantrank-reviewer (opus) flagged 3 non-blocking WARNs on the initial PR 6 commit. 2 addressed inline; 1 deferred to follow-up. - WARN-2 FIXED: `_NEGATION_REGEX` BEFORE branch gains an inline NOTE block explaining `no` is intentionally BEFORE-only (post- mention "10b5-1 plan, no shares sold" reads as affirmative disclosure + non-negation use of `no` → FP risk too high). AFTER branch carries a cross-reference comment so the asymmetry is self-documenting at the regex. - WARN-3 FIXED: new `test_M3_negation_patterns_each_appear_in_compiled_regex` drift-detector — every token in `_NEGATION_PATTERNS` must appear somewhere in `_NEGATION_REGEX.pattern` source string. Catches drift in both directions (add to frozenset without updating regex; remove from regex without updating frozenset). Carve-outs handle the `cancelled` ↔ `canceled` collapse to `cancell?ed` and the multi-word `not in effect` `\s+` split. Tests 33 → 34; full suite 1399 → 1400. - WARN-1 DEFERRED in `PHASE_STATUS_INFLIGHT.md` PR #303 entry: `_NEGATION_REGEX` anchor matches only 2 of upstream `detect_10b5_1_plan`'s 6 substrings. Bias direction remains safe (over-includes legit trades in cohort, never under-excludes). Fix path noted; gated on cron Run #72+ empirical data showing whether the gap is material. 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com> * docs(phase-status): bump for PR #303 — schema 0.10.10 → 0.10.11 + Recently merged refresh (PR #300/#301/#302) * docs(workflow): bump session-start pointer to schema 0.10.10 on main + PR #303 in-flight (Phase 4.5e PR 6 negation guard 0.10.11) * test(form4): PR 6 cross-reference smoke tests in test_form4_insider.py — quality-gate Section D * ci: re-trigger simulate on 0a1fc86 (prior run cancelled by concurrency supersede) --------- Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Summary
Methodology-scientist Mode B Q2 follow-up deferred from PR #294 (sector-CoE flip, 2026-05-28 05:39 UTC). Adds
Metadata.value_trap_risk_delta_by_sector: dict[str, int] | Noneso Q3 2026-08-19 quarterly cohort audit has visible per-sector shape evidence — not just the aggregatevalue_trap_risk_count_*_sector_coescalars that landed in PR #204.Schema PATCH bump
0.10.9 → 0.10.10-phase4.6(additive Metadata-only).Methodology context (Damodaran 2019 Investment Valuation Ch. 8.4 §"Industry Beta")
After
USE_SECTOR_COE = Trueper-sector Ke replaces the flat 10% baseline atSECTOR_COST_OF_EQUITY(11 GICS sectors, Ke 6%-12%). Directional predictions:Cron #69 + Run #71 confirmed the aggregate:
132 → 109(−23 tickers, −17.4%). This PR breaks the −23 down by sector so the next cron'smetadata.jsonshows whether the cohort shift matches Damodaran prediction shape OR has unexpected outliers (methodology-scientist re-review trigger).Scope (10 files, additive only)
compute/output/schemas.pyvalue_trap_risk_delta_by_sectorfield with full docstring (verdict + Damodaran anchor + direction semantics)frontend/lib/types.tsRecord<string, number> | nullfrontend/lib/schema-snapshot.json--update-snapshotcompute/config.pySCHEMA_VERSION = "0.10.10-phase4.6"compute/main.pytests/test_config.pytests/test_output/test_value_trap_delta_by_sector_schema.py(NEW)test_wall_clock_schema.pypattern from PR #297CLAUDE.mdAGENTS.mdPHASE_STATUS_INFLIGHT.mdImplementation note
Per-sector dict construction uses
sorted(set(without) | set(with))for stable key ordering;.get(sec, 0)fallback handles sectors appearing in only one path;{} or Nonefalls back toNonewhen both dicts are empty (test-mode universe). Co-located with the existing scalar bump in both_rim_flat(flat-Ke) and_rim_sector(sector-Ke) branches at the samevalue_trap_risk_roe_below_cost_of_equityreason guard — scalar and dict always stay in lockstep.Pre-push 3-reviewer gate
schema-sentinel(sonnet)test-engineer(sonnet)quantrank-reviewer(opus)Opus reviewer explicitly ran
grep -rn "0.10.9" tests/to catch the PR #298-class test-pin mistake — found 4 stale refs intest_wall_clock_schema.pybut ALL are non-runtime (fixture strings + docstring mentions);Metadata.versionis plainstr, no validator. All tests still pass.Empirical validation (post-merge, next cron Run #72)
metadata.value_trap_risk_delta_by_sectorpopulates as non-null dictsum(delta.values()) == value_trap_risk_count_without_sector_coe - value_trap_risk_count_with_sector_coeNote: per-sector accumulation runs in the Step 8 per-ticker loop, INDEPENDENT of cache-v5 cache busting (PR #298). Field populates on next cron regardless of warm/cold fetch path.
Hard constraints honored
Methodology decision
Methodology-scientist verdict NOT re-requested — this is the EXACT field shape Mode B Q2 verdict from PR #294 explicitly authorized. Future re-trigger only if (a) post-merge cron shows sector breakdown contradicting Damodaran prediction OR (b) Q3 audit reads ≥ 6 crons of data and per-sector decay pattern needs interpretation.
Test plan
ruff check .— All checks passedpython -m compute.output.schema_check— in sync at0.10.10-phase4.6pytest tests/test_config.py— 11/11 PASS (pin held)python -m pytest tests/test_output/test_value_trap_delta_by_sector_schema.py— 2/2 PASSGenerated by Claude Code