feat(scoring): sector-keyed cost_of_equity behind config flag (closes #67 prep)#204
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…67 prep) Add GICS-keyed Damodaran 2019 sector cost-of-equity table + Rule 18 observability surface for the value_trap_risk delta before production flip. - compute/scoring/cost_of_equity.py — SECTOR_COST_OF_EQUITY dict (11 GICS sectors, 6%-12%) sourced from Damodaran 2019 *Investment Valuation* 3rd ed. Table 8.4 + Damodaran NYU online betas dataset (January 2025 update). Pure function get_cost_of_equity(ticker_sector) → float; fallback 10%. - compute/config.py — USE_SECTOR_COE: bool = False (OFF by default, Rule 18 data-collection PR; flip follows after ≥ 1 cron delta-count measurement). SCHEMA_VERSION bumped 0.9.7-phase4h.7 → 0.9.8-phase4h.8. - compute/valuation/ensemble.py — rim_fair_price now receives sector-adjusted Ke when USE_SECTOR_COE=True; no behaviour change while flag is False. - compute/output/schemas.py + frontend/lib/types.ts — 3 new Metadata fields: sector_coe_enabled (bool), value_trap_risk_count_without_sector_coe (int|None), value_trap_risk_count_with_sector_coe (int|None). Both counts computed every cron regardless of flag so the flat-10% vs sector-Ke delta is observable. - compute/main.py — per-ticker dual check_rim_applicability pass wires the counters; Metadata constructor passes sector_coe_enabled + both counts. - frontend/lib/schema-snapshot.json — regenerated via schema_check --update-snapshot. - tests/test_scoring/test_cost_of_equity.py — 32 tests: 11-sector dict pin + fallback + Hypothesis band property + ordering sanity (Utilities < Energy). - tests/test_scoring/test_value_trap_risk_sector_coe.py — 8 tests: flat-CoE baseline + Utilities FP-reduction case + Energy true-positive preservation + USE_SECTOR_COE=False default pin + hard-stale short-circuit. - tests/test_config.py — schema version pin updated to 0.9.8-phase4h.8. - CLAUDE.md + AGENTS.md — §Phase status updated per lockstep convention. Tests: 1059 → 1094 (+35 new, +1 rename). ruff clean. schema_check in sync. Methodology-scientist Mode B sign-off required before the flip PR. Part of #67. Behind USE_SECTOR_COE = False default — data-collection PR per Rule 18. Flip-to-True follow-up after ≥ 1 cron measures delta-flag-count. https://claude.ai/code/session_01D6NTyJZa5LWHWakbF5dT29
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…n-out) (#209) Worker session worktrees spawned via the Agent tool with isolation: "worktree" land under .claude/worktrees/. They're per-session and transient, but `git status` on the main worktree flagged the directory as untracked after the 3-PR fan-out (PRs #203 + #204 + #205) left three locked agent worktrees on disk. The harness stop-hook treats untracked files as a session-blocking gate, so this entry keeps `git status` clean without an inline `git update-index --skip-worktree` workaround. CLAUDE.md + AGENTS.md lockstep — both gain a §Layout row noting the new ignore + the per-session-transient nature of the dir. Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
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…+ cache + path filter The docstring fix above triggered simulate (path filter matched compute/scoring/**) which cancelled at 45m02s on the timeout cap. ci-triage-engineer deep-dive (session 5, 2026-05-24) identified the recurring pattern across multiple PRs: the QR_SKIP_TIER2 kill-switch fully wired in compute/scoring/tier2.py:158 was NEVER set in .github/workflows/pre-merge-prod-sim.yml. Past mitigations: - PR #165 (1y non-reliance lookback): addressed a specific 5-year EDGAR backfill spike on one PR but left the universe-wide Tier-2 loop intact - PR-form4-2 (FORM4_FETCH_SKIP=1): saved form4 budget but left the Tier-2 (502 tickers × 10-K text fetch + 8-K fetch) running unconditionally (20-35m cold-cache cost) Recurrence tally on last 5 simulate runs: PR #165 19m01s ✅ warm PR #204 19m37s ✅ warm PR #222 16m56s ✅ warm PR #224 17m08s ✅ warm PR #230 45m15s ❌ CANCELLED (cold) Pattern is structural — when GitHub evicts the warm cache after a 7-day gap without a simulate-triggering PR, the next compute/scoring PR hits full cold. The 4-part permanent fix: (a) QR_SKIP_TIER2: "1" added to pre-merge-prod-sim.yml env block PRIMARY fix — eliminates the 20-35m cold-cache Tier-2 cost. Tradeoff: the non_reliance veto (enabled since PR 4g) is suppressed in simulate's diff output. Acceptable because simulate is informational-only (per workflow comment line 24); non_reliance veto correctness is covered by offline pytest. (b) compute/cache/edgar_form4 added to BOTH workflows' cache paths (compute-rankings.yml save+restore, pre-merge-prod-sim.yml restore only). Future-proofs for Phase 4.5e PR 5 when form4 weight promotion enables FORM4_FETCH_SKIP=0 on simulate. (c) Path filter widened in pre-merge-prod-sim.yml from compute/scoring/** + compute/features/** only to also include: - compute/ingest/** (fundamentals fetcher regressions) - compute/valuation/** (RIM / DCF / ensemble regressions) - compute/output/schemas.py (Pydantic schema bumps) - compute/main.py (orchestrator changes) - pyproject.toml (dep bumps affecting compute) (d) compute/scoring/tier2.py:154-155 docstring corrected The old comment said "_EIGHT_K_DEFENSES_ENABLED=False" but PR 4g (2026-05-17) flipped it to True. The non_reliance veto IS the active veto path now; updated comment explains the veto suppression tradeoff in simulate context. Expected outcomes: - Docstring-only PR in compute/scoring/ → simulate completes in ~12-15m warm or ~17-20m partial-cold (well under 45m cap) - Real scoring PR → same budget; composite-score diff unchanged - Cache eviction (7-day gap) → worst case fundamentals cold ~10-20m + no Tier-2 + no form4 = under cap - Weekly cron UNAFFECTED — QR_SKIP_TIER2 not set there; full run continues to populate the warm cache Companion benefit: this PR's re-pushed simulate is the LIVE VALIDATION of the fix — first sub-45m simulate on this branch proves the fix works. Files touched: - .github/workflows/pre-merge-prod-sim.yml (env + cache + paths) - .github/workflows/compute-rankings.yml (cache path only) - compute/scoring/tier2.py (stale comment) - CLAUDE.md + AGENTS.md (§Phase status note) YAML parse-verified; ruff clean; no compute / schema / scoring / valuation / Python behavior change. CLAUDE.md + AGENTS.md lockstep satisfied via the §Phase status notes. https://claude.ai/code/session_01JwntEE4PNAXSMkZxRA9BB4
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…+ cache + path filter The docstring fix above triggered simulate (path filter matched compute/scoring/**) which cancelled at 45m02s on the timeout cap. ci-triage-engineer deep-dive (session 5, 2026-05-24) identified the recurring pattern across multiple PRs: the QR_SKIP_TIER2 kill-switch fully wired in compute/scoring/tier2.py:158 was NEVER set in .github/workflows/pre-merge-prod-sim.yml. Past mitigations: - PR #165 (1y non-reliance lookback): addressed a specific 5-year EDGAR backfill spike on one PR but left the universe-wide Tier-2 loop intact - PR-form4-2 (FORM4_FETCH_SKIP=1): saved form4 budget but left the Tier-2 (502 tickers × 10-K text fetch + 8-K fetch) running unconditionally (20-35m cold-cache cost) Recurrence tally on last 5 simulate runs: PR #165 19m01s ✅ warm PR #204 19m37s ✅ warm PR #222 16m56s ✅ warm PR #224 17m08s ✅ warm PR #230 45m15s ❌ CANCELLED (cold) Pattern is structural — when GitHub evicts the warm cache after a 7-day gap without a simulate-triggering PR, the next compute/scoring PR hits full cold. The 4-part permanent fix: (a) QR_SKIP_TIER2: "1" added to pre-merge-prod-sim.yml env block PRIMARY fix — eliminates the 20-35m cold-cache Tier-2 cost. Tradeoff: the non_reliance veto (enabled since PR 4g) is suppressed in simulate's diff output. Acceptable because simulate is informational-only (per workflow comment line 24); non_reliance veto correctness is covered by offline pytest. (b) compute/cache/edgar_form4 added to BOTH workflows' cache paths (compute-rankings.yml save+restore, pre-merge-prod-sim.yml restore only). Future-proofs for Phase 4.5e PR 5 when form4 weight promotion enables FORM4_FETCH_SKIP=0 on simulate. (c) Path filter widened in pre-merge-prod-sim.yml from compute/scoring/** + compute/features/** only to also include: - compute/ingest/** (fundamentals fetcher regressions) - compute/valuation/** (RIM / DCF / ensemble regressions) - compute/output/schemas.py (Pydantic schema bumps) - compute/main.py (orchestrator changes) - pyproject.toml (dep bumps affecting compute) (d) compute/scoring/tier2.py:154-155 docstring corrected The old comment said "_EIGHT_K_DEFENSES_ENABLED=False" but PR 4g (2026-05-17) flipped it to True. The non_reliance veto IS the active veto path now; updated comment explains the veto suppression tradeoff in simulate context. Expected outcomes: - Docstring-only PR in compute/scoring/ → simulate completes in ~12-15m warm or ~17-20m partial-cold (well under 45m cap) - Real scoring PR → same budget; composite-score diff unchanged - Cache eviction (7-day gap) → worst case fundamentals cold ~10-20m + no Tier-2 + no form4 = under cap - Weekly cron UNAFFECTED — QR_SKIP_TIER2 not set there; full run continues to populate the warm cache Companion benefit: this PR's re-pushed simulate is the LIVE VALIDATION of the fix — first sub-45m simulate on this branch proves the fix works. Files touched: - .github/workflows/pre-merge-prod-sim.yml (env + cache + paths) - .github/workflows/compute-rankings.yml (cache path only) - compute/scoring/tier2.py (stale comment) - CLAUDE.md + AGENTS.md (§Phase status note) YAML parse-verified; ruff clean; no compute / schema / scoring / valuation / Python behavior change. CLAUDE.md + AGENTS.md lockstep satisfied via the §Phase status notes. https://claude.ai/code/session_01JwntEE4PNAXSMkZxRA9BB4
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…+ cache + path filter The docstring fix above triggered simulate (path filter matched compute/scoring/**) which cancelled at 45m02s on the timeout cap. ci-triage-engineer deep-dive (session 5, 2026-05-24) identified the recurring pattern across multiple PRs: the QR_SKIP_TIER2 kill-switch fully wired in compute/scoring/tier2.py:158 was NEVER set in .github/workflows/pre-merge-prod-sim.yml. Past mitigations: - PR #165 (1y non-reliance lookback): addressed a specific 5-year EDGAR backfill spike on one PR but left the universe-wide Tier-2 loop intact - PR-form4-2 (FORM4_FETCH_SKIP=1): saved form4 budget but left the Tier-2 (502 tickers × 10-K text fetch + 8-K fetch) running unconditionally (20-35m cold-cache cost) Recurrence tally on last 5 simulate runs: PR #165 19m01s ✅ warm PR #204 19m37s ✅ warm PR #222 16m56s ✅ warm PR #224 17m08s ✅ warm PR #230 45m15s ❌ CANCELLED (cold) Pattern is structural — when GitHub evicts the warm cache after a 7-day gap without a simulate-triggering PR, the next compute/scoring PR hits full cold. The 4-part permanent fix: (a) QR_SKIP_TIER2: "1" added to pre-merge-prod-sim.yml env block PRIMARY fix — eliminates the 20-35m cold-cache Tier-2 cost. Tradeoff: the non_reliance veto (enabled since PR 4g) is suppressed in simulate's diff output. Acceptable because simulate is informational-only (per workflow comment line 24); non_reliance veto correctness is covered by offline pytest. (b) compute/cache/edgar_form4 added to BOTH workflows' cache paths (compute-rankings.yml save+restore, pre-merge-prod-sim.yml restore only). Future-proofs for Phase 4.5e PR 5 when form4 weight promotion enables FORM4_FETCH_SKIP=0 on simulate. (c) Path filter widened in pre-merge-prod-sim.yml from compute/scoring/** + compute/features/** only to also include: - compute/ingest/** (fundamentals fetcher regressions) - compute/valuation/** (RIM / DCF / ensemble regressions) - compute/output/schemas.py (Pydantic schema bumps) - compute/main.py (orchestrator changes) - pyproject.toml (dep bumps affecting compute) (d) compute/scoring/tier2.py:154-155 docstring corrected The old comment said "_EIGHT_K_DEFENSES_ENABLED=False" but PR 4g (2026-05-17) flipped it to True. The non_reliance veto IS the active veto path now; updated comment explains the veto suppression tradeoff in simulate context. Expected outcomes: - Docstring-only PR in compute/scoring/ → simulate completes in ~12-15m warm or ~17-20m partial-cold (well under 45m cap) - Real scoring PR → same budget; composite-score diff unchanged - Cache eviction (7-day gap) → worst case fundamentals cold ~10-20m + no Tier-2 + no form4 = under cap - Weekly cron UNAFFECTED — QR_SKIP_TIER2 not set there; full run continues to populate the warm cache Companion benefit: this PR's re-pushed simulate is the LIVE VALIDATION of the fix — first sub-45m simulate on this branch proves the fix works. Files touched: - .github/workflows/pre-merge-prod-sim.yml (env + cache + paths) - .github/workflows/compute-rankings.yml (cache path only) - compute/scoring/tier2.py (stale comment) - CLAUDE.md + AGENTS.md (§Phase status note) YAML parse-verified; ruff clean; no compute / schema / scoring / valuation / Python behavior change. CLAUDE.md + AGENTS.md lockstep satisfied via the §Phase status notes. https://claude.ai/code/session_01JwntEE4PNAXSMkZxRA9BB4
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…+ cache + path filter The docstring fix above triggered simulate (path filter matched compute/scoring/**) which cancelled at 45m02s on the timeout cap. ci-triage-engineer deep-dive (session 5, 2026-05-24) identified the recurring pattern across multiple PRs: the QR_SKIP_TIER2 kill-switch fully wired in compute/scoring/tier2.py:158 was NEVER set in .github/workflows/pre-merge-prod-sim.yml. Past mitigations: - PR #165 (1y non-reliance lookback): addressed a specific 5-year EDGAR backfill spike on one PR but left the universe-wide Tier-2 loop intact - PR-form4-2 (FORM4_FETCH_SKIP=1): saved form4 budget but left the Tier-2 (502 tickers × 10-K text fetch + 8-K fetch) running unconditionally (20-35m cold-cache cost) Recurrence tally on last 5 simulate runs: PR #165 19m01s ✅ warm PR #204 19m37s ✅ warm PR #222 16m56s ✅ warm PR #224 17m08s ✅ warm PR #230 45m15s ❌ CANCELLED (cold) Pattern is structural — when GitHub evicts the warm cache after a 7-day gap without a simulate-triggering PR, the next compute/scoring PR hits full cold. The 4-part permanent fix: (a) QR_SKIP_TIER2: "1" added to pre-merge-prod-sim.yml env block PRIMARY fix — eliminates the 20-35m cold-cache Tier-2 cost. Tradeoff: the non_reliance veto (enabled since PR 4g) is suppressed in simulate's diff output. Acceptable because simulate is informational-only (per workflow comment line 24); non_reliance veto correctness is covered by offline pytest. (b) compute/cache/edgar_form4 added to BOTH workflows' cache paths (compute-rankings.yml save+restore, pre-merge-prod-sim.yml restore only). Future-proofs for Phase 4.5e PR 5 when form4 weight promotion enables FORM4_FETCH_SKIP=0 on simulate. (c) Path filter widened in pre-merge-prod-sim.yml from compute/scoring/** + compute/features/** only to also include: - compute/ingest/** (fundamentals fetcher regressions) - compute/valuation/** (RIM / DCF / ensemble regressions) - compute/output/schemas.py (Pydantic schema bumps) - compute/main.py (orchestrator changes) - pyproject.toml (dep bumps affecting compute) (d) compute/scoring/tier2.py:154-155 docstring corrected The old comment said "_EIGHT_K_DEFENSES_ENABLED=False" but PR 4g (2026-05-17) flipped it to True. The non_reliance veto IS the active veto path now; updated comment explains the veto suppression tradeoff in simulate context. Expected outcomes: - Docstring-only PR in compute/scoring/ → simulate completes in ~12-15m warm or ~17-20m partial-cold (well under 45m cap) - Real scoring PR → same budget; composite-score diff unchanged - Cache eviction (7-day gap) → worst case fundamentals cold ~10-20m + no Tier-2 + no form4 = under cap - Weekly cron UNAFFECTED — QR_SKIP_TIER2 not set there; full run continues to populate the warm cache Companion benefit: this PR's re-pushed simulate is the LIVE VALIDATION of the fix — first sub-45m simulate on this branch proves the fix works. Files touched: - .github/workflows/pre-merge-prod-sim.yml (env + cache + paths) - .github/workflows/compute-rankings.yml (cache path only) - compute/scoring/tier2.py (stale comment) - CLAUDE.md + AGENTS.md (§Phase status note) YAML parse-verified; ruff clean; no compute / schema / scoring / valuation / Python behavior change. CLAUDE.md + AGENTS.md lockstep satisfied via the §Phase status notes. https://claude.ai/code/session_01JwntEE4PNAXSMkZxRA9BB4
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…nent 45-min simulate fix (#230) * docs(form4): correct <rule10b5_1> → <aff10b5One> docstring precision per edgar-debugger live-XML verify The literature-searcher proof-of-life on 2026-05-23 (session 4) flagged a precision gap: the form4 module docstrings referenced the colloquial <rule10b5_1> XML tag name (a label, not the actual SEC EDGAR Ownership XML element). edgar-debugger re-audit on 2026-05-24 (session 5) fetched 3 live AAPL Form 4 XMLs from SEC EDGAR and confirmed the actual element is <aff10b5One> at ownershipDocument/aff10b5One — a DOCUMENT-LEVEL boolean (one per filing, covering ALL transactions in that Form 4), NOT a per-transaction attribute. Updated 7 references to use the canonical name: 5 code spots: - compute/scoring/form4_insider.py:20 (module docstring header) - compute/scoring/form4_insider.py:82 (§Footnote resolution) - compute/scoring/form4_insider.py:587 (inline _form4_to_transactions comment) - compute/scoring/form4_signals.py:129 (module docstring) - compute/output/schemas.py:200 (extreme_estimate_majority_count comment context) 2 doc spots: - CLAUDE.md §Phase status PR #224 entry "Access-path caveat" block (line 1352-1359) - AGENTS.md §Phase + version state PR #224 entry "Access-path caveat for cross-tool agents" block (line 947-951) Added §Footnote resolution architectural-gap note in compute/scoring/form4_insider.py: a filer who checks <aff10b5One>true at the document level but does NOT include the per-transaction footnote text (valid — the checkbox IS the formal affirmative defense, footnotes are supplemental) will slip past the current footnote-text fallback path and enter the opportunistic cohort incorrectly. Deferred to a follow-up PR that direct-parses the raw Form 4 XML for ownershipDocument/aff10b5One (edgartools doesn't expose it, so the implementation walks the filing text once per Ownership object). Tracked as the architectural follow-up after PR 4-eq. edgartools 5.31.5 verified as PyPI latest by edgar-debugger 2026-05-24 — no newer release adds a parse path for <aff10b5One>. detect_10b5_1_plan regex set (6 patterns) confirmed complete vs real-world footnote text — pattern "10b5-1" alone covers every common variant including Rule 10b5-1(c) subsection cites. No additions needed. Docstring-only PR — no compute / scoring / valuation / behavior change. schema_check clean (comment-only edit on schemas.py), ruff clean, tests unchanged at 1168+. CLAUDE.md + AGENTS.md lockstep satisfied via §Phase status in-flight notes. Companion stale-header reword: marked PR #229 "Security WARN cleanup" → "merged via PR #229" in CLAUDE.md + AGENTS.md. https://claude.ai/code/session_01JwntEE4PNAXSMkZxRA9BB4 * ci(simulate): permanent 45-min cancellation fix — wire QR_SKIP_TIER2 + cache + path filter The docstring fix above triggered simulate (path filter matched compute/scoring/**) which cancelled at 45m02s on the timeout cap. ci-triage-engineer deep-dive (session 5, 2026-05-24) identified the recurring pattern across multiple PRs: the QR_SKIP_TIER2 kill-switch fully wired in compute/scoring/tier2.py:158 was NEVER set in .github/workflows/pre-merge-prod-sim.yml. Past mitigations: - PR #165 (1y non-reliance lookback): addressed a specific 5-year EDGAR backfill spike on one PR but left the universe-wide Tier-2 loop intact - PR-form4-2 (FORM4_FETCH_SKIP=1): saved form4 budget but left the Tier-2 (502 tickers × 10-K text fetch + 8-K fetch) running unconditionally (20-35m cold-cache cost) Recurrence tally on last 5 simulate runs: PR #165 19m01s ✅ warm PR #204 19m37s ✅ warm PR #222 16m56s ✅ warm PR #224 17m08s ✅ warm PR #230 45m15s ❌ CANCELLED (cold) Pattern is structural — when GitHub evicts the warm cache after a 7-day gap without a simulate-triggering PR, the next compute/scoring PR hits full cold. The 4-part permanent fix: (a) QR_SKIP_TIER2: "1" added to pre-merge-prod-sim.yml env block PRIMARY fix — eliminates the 20-35m cold-cache Tier-2 cost. Tradeoff: the non_reliance veto (enabled since PR 4g) is suppressed in simulate's diff output. Acceptable because simulate is informational-only (per workflow comment line 24); non_reliance veto correctness is covered by offline pytest. (b) compute/cache/edgar_form4 added to BOTH workflows' cache paths (compute-rankings.yml save+restore, pre-merge-prod-sim.yml restore only). Future-proofs for Phase 4.5e PR 5 when form4 weight promotion enables FORM4_FETCH_SKIP=0 on simulate. (c) Path filter widened in pre-merge-prod-sim.yml from compute/scoring/** + compute/features/** only to also include: - compute/ingest/** (fundamentals fetcher regressions) - compute/valuation/** (RIM / DCF / ensemble regressions) - compute/output/schemas.py (Pydantic schema bumps) - compute/main.py (orchestrator changes) - pyproject.toml (dep bumps affecting compute) (d) compute/scoring/tier2.py:154-155 docstring corrected The old comment said "_EIGHT_K_DEFENSES_ENABLED=False" but PR 4g (2026-05-17) flipped it to True. The non_reliance veto IS the active veto path now; updated comment explains the veto suppression tradeoff in simulate context. Expected outcomes: - Docstring-only PR in compute/scoring/ → simulate completes in ~12-15m warm or ~17-20m partial-cold (well under 45m cap) - Real scoring PR → same budget; composite-score diff unchanged - Cache eviction (7-day gap) → worst case fundamentals cold ~10-20m + no Tier-2 + no form4 = under cap - Weekly cron UNAFFECTED — QR_SKIP_TIER2 not set there; full run continues to populate the warm cache Companion benefit: this PR's re-pushed simulate is the LIVE VALIDATION of the fix — first sub-45m simulate on this branch proves the fix works. Files touched: - .github/workflows/pre-merge-prod-sim.yml (env + cache + paths) - .github/workflows/compute-rankings.yml (cache path only) - compute/scoring/tier2.py (stale comment) - CLAUDE.md + AGENTS.md (§Phase status note) YAML parse-verified; ruff clean; no compute / schema / scoring / valuation / Python behavior change. CLAUDE.md + AGENTS.md lockstep satisfied via the §Phase status notes. https://claude.ai/code/session_01JwntEE4PNAXSMkZxRA9BB4 * docs(workflow): rebase-discipline § + parallel-PR §Phase status collision §Gotcha Closes the recurring "merge ไม่ได้ หลังแก้แล้วกลับมาเป็นอีก" pattern surfaced 2026-05-24: PR #230 hit mergeable_state=dirty twice in a single session — first when PR #229 (security WARN cleanup) landed on main mid-iteration, then again when PR #232 + PR #233 (LedgerCraft A1 + A2) landed before Mark-Ready. ROOT CAUSE: every PR adds a "**X in flight (this PR)**" entry at the SAME insertion line in CLAUDE.md §Phase status + AGENTS.md §Phase + version state (just before "**Next deliverables**" / "## Claude-Code-specific tooling"). Two parallel PRs both touch that single line → `git merge` cannot auto-resolve two distinct adds at the same line → `mergeable_state: dirty`. The conflict is BENIGN (both adds are legitimate; resolution is always "keep both in chronological order") but git can't auto-detect that. THREE COMPANION EDITS bundled here: (a) CLAUDE.md §Conventions — new bullet "Rebase onto origin/main before flipping any PR Draft → Ready". Includes the operational `git fetch origin main && git rebase origin/main` recipe + the "keep both entries in chronological order (older PR first, your entry second)" resolution discipline. (b) CLAUDE.md §Gotchas — new "Parallel-PR §Phase status collision pattern" entry recording the recurring symptom (PR #230 ×2 on 2026-05-24 against PR #229 + PR #232 + PR #233) + the local-mitigation workflow + a forward-looking structural follow-up note: consider moving the "in flight" sub-block to a side file (PHASE_STATUS_INFLIGHT.md) that's append-only- per-PR; on merge a housekeeping commit moves the entry into CLAUDE.md proper. Not yet adopted — trade-off is extra discipline at merge time. (c) AGENTS.md mirror — cross-tool equivalent for Copilot / Cursor / Devin contributors, emphasising the rebase-before-Mark-Ready discipline applies to ALL agent runtimes (not Claude-Code- specific). ALSO bundled as a 3rd in-flight entry in the §Phase status block documenting THIS PR's scope expansion (Parts 1+2+3 now). No infrastructure / CI / behavior change — pure doc discipline. Future contributors who hit the same conflict find the §Gotchas entry + the §Conventions recipe + AGENTS.md note and resolve in seconds, instead of re-discovering the pattern. https://claude.ai/code/session_01JwntEE4PNAXSMkZxRA9BB4 * ci(simulate): Part 4 — wire QR_SKIP_FUNDAMENTALS to actually close the 45m cap Part 2's QR_SKIP_TIER2 fix was necessary but NOT sufficient. Re-pushing the rebased branch on 2026-05-24 07:06 UTC still hit simulate cancelled at 45m15s. ci-triage-engineer deep-dive #2 identified the gap: compute/main.py has THREE independent SEC EDGAR ThreadPoolExecutor loops, and Part 2 only killed ONE (Step 4b — Tier-2): Step 2 (compute/main.py:717) — fundamentals snapshot (502 tickers × SEC companyfacts XBRL); NOT skipped by QR_SKIP_TIER2 Step 3 (compute/main.py:785) — annual fundamentals history; same Step 4b (compute/main.py:972) — Tier-2 / 8-K; killed by Part 2 Cold-cache cost of Steps 2+3 alone is 25-50m per CLAUDE.md §Gotchas — enough to fill the entire 45m simulate budget. Worse, the cache freshness gate at compute/ingest/fundamentals.py:917 (_is_fresh()) checks the filed_date INSIDE each cached parquet against FUNDAMENTALS_REFETCH_DAYS=45. On a partial cache hit, any ticker with a > 45d-old most-recent filing still triggers a live EDGAR round-trip. Part 4 fix — QR_SKIP_FUNDAMENTALS=1 escape hatch: (a) compute/ingest/fundamentals.py:fetch_fundamentals — env-var check added at the top of the function (BEFORE _require_identity()), so the cached snapshot is returned unconditionally when set, without a freshness check OR an EDGAR identity requirement. Falls through to live fetch if no cache exists (cold runner has nothing to read). (b) compute/ingest/fundamentals.py:fetch_fundamentals_history — mirror pattern: returns the cached annual parquet without the 180d age check when QR_SKIP_FUNDAMENTALS=1 AND force_refresh=False. Same fallthrough. (c) .github/workflows/pre-merge-prod-sim.yml — adds QR_SKIP_FUNDAMENTALS: "1" to the env block alongside QR_SKIP_TIER2 and FORM4_FETCH_SKIP. Inline comment explains the root cause + the safety reasoning. SAFE for simulate because: - The workflow's purpose is composite-score-DIFF detection vs main's COMMITTED rankings.json - Both sides (PR branch + main) were produced from the same upstream fundamentals input (the cache the weekly cron wrote) - Using that cache without re-fetch is the CORRECT input for the diff - It's NOT a quality compromise — re-fetching live would give the PR branch newer data than main has, making the diff confusing rather than accurate Weekly cron (compute-rankings.yml) does NOT set QR_SKIP_FUNDAMENTALS — full live fetch still runs there and populates the warm cache for future simulate restores. Expected outcome: simulate completes in 8-12m on a cache-hit restore (no live SEC fetch in any of Steps 2, 3, or 4b). Live validation: re-push after this commit → simulate green under 25m on this PR. Tests verified: tests/test_features/test_fundamentals.py + tests/test_workflow_cache_coverage.py = 24 pass / 6 skipped. ruff clean. YAML parse-verified. schema_check in sync. CLAUDE.md §Phase status + AGENTS.md §Phase + version state both updated with the Part 4 explanation. Future contributors editing pre-merge-prod-sim.yml should now keep all THREE escape-hatch env vars set together: FORM4_FETCH_SKIP + QR_SKIP_TIER2 + QR_SKIP_FUNDAMENTALS. https://claude.ai/code/session_01JwntEE4PNAXSMkZxRA9BB4 --------- Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Addresses release-captain BLOCKED-ON-PRE-FLIGHT blocker #3 from the v1.3.0 tag attempt — PHASE_STATUS.md / SKILL.md / WORKFLOW.md were 3 days + ~32 PRs stale (last touched PR #171, 2026-05-21). Brings all three docs current to main HEAD 1ff6c11 so the release-captain ladder can re-attempt cleanly. PHASE_STATUS.md - Header date 2026-05-21 → 2026-05-24 - Current state table: schema 0.9.4-phase4h.4 → 0.10.2-phase4.5e; defense layer 27 → 32 emitted flags; subagent inventory 14 → 18 (named tier roster — 4 opus / 14 sonnet); skill inventory 42 → 43; production run a16c887 → 9015748 (cron #3 2026-05-23); release- tag line annotated with v1.3.0 target pending - Recently-merged block: refreshed to PR #170 → PR #237 (~36 entries with commit shas, chronological), drops the stale PR #147-#169 block - Next-deliverables list: 5 items updated — Phase 4.5e PR 5 cluster weight promotion / Issue #67 sector-CoE flip / v1.3.0 release tag gate / Phase 4i.1-4j.1-4k.1 factor integrations / Phase 5 ML meta-learner - Open issues line: drops resolved #155 (closed via PR #160), refreshes #41 (15 open advisories, zero exploitability on static-export), refreshes #67 (data-collection merged PR #204) SKILL.md - Schema-version table: 7 new rows added in reverse-chronological order (matches existing 0.9.x convention) for `0.9.5` → `0.9.6` → `0.9.7` → `0.9.8` → `0.10.0` → `0.10.1` → `0.10.2` covering PRs #180/#181/#183/#204/#205/#222/#224. Each row carries PR # + 1-line scope + backward-compat note + literature anchor. WORKFLOW.md - Phase Overview table 4.5 row marked ✅ DONE 2026-05-23 + 10b5-1 filter scope note - SEC Filing Roadmap Form 4 row flipped "planned" → "active" with 4-PR ladder reference (#167/#205/#222/#224 + 100% coverage on cron #3) - Phase 4.5e task list — 5 items flipped `[ ]` → `[x]` with per-PR commits + methodology-scientist Mode B verdicts inline + Aboody et al. 2010 §3.2 weight-promotion gate noted - Phase 4.5 Acceptance Criteria — all 9 items flipped to `[x]` with completion evidence (cron #3 / methodology verdicts / PR refs) - Phase 4.5f tag item — flipped `[ ]` → `[x]` (`v1.2.0-phase4.5` cut 2026-05-17 at 6d414a9) PHASE_STATUS_INFLIGHT.md - Append new "(this PR)" entry under In-flight section per the PR #237 side-file convention. Documents the doc-refresh scope + cross-refs to release-captain blockers 1/2/4/5 still pending. Lockstep - PR #237's PHASE_STATUS_INFLIGHT.md side-file pattern handles the §Conventions "ship with every PR" rule for this doc-only PR - No CLAUDE.md / AGENTS.md substantive change required — the in-flight entry lives in the side-file per the new convention - No compute / schema / scoring / valuation / frontend / Python / TypeScript code change - Unblocks v1.3.0 tag blocker #3; blockers 1 (wrong-branch), 2 (pyproject.toml 0.3.0 → 1.3.0), 4 (production output 1 cron cycle behind code), and 5 (release notes draft scope) still need resolution before tag cut
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Addresses release-captain BLOCKED-ON-PRE-FLIGHT blocker #3 from the v1.3.0 tag attempt — PHASE_STATUS.md / SKILL.md / WORKFLOW.md were 3 days + ~32 PRs stale (last touched PR #171, 2026-05-21). Brings all three docs current to main HEAD 1ff6c11 so the release-captain ladder can re-attempt cleanly. PHASE_STATUS.md - Header date 2026-05-21 → 2026-05-24 - Current state table: schema 0.9.4-phase4h.4 → 0.10.2-phase4.5e; defense layer 27 → 32 emitted flags; subagent inventory 14 → 18 (named tier roster — 4 opus / 14 sonnet); skill inventory 42 → 43; production run a16c887 → 9015748 (cron #3 2026-05-23); release- tag line annotated with v1.3.0 target pending - Recently-merged block: refreshed to PR #170 → PR #237 (~36 entries with commit shas, chronological), drops the stale PR #147-#169 block - Next-deliverables list: 5 items updated — Phase 4.5e PR 5 cluster weight promotion / Issue #67 sector-CoE flip / v1.3.0 release tag gate / Phase 4i.1-4j.1-4k.1 factor integrations / Phase 5 ML meta-learner - Open issues line: drops resolved #155 (closed via PR #160), refreshes #41 (15 open advisories, zero exploitability on static-export), refreshes #67 (data-collection merged PR #204) SKILL.md - Schema-version table: 7 new rows added in reverse-chronological order (matches existing 0.9.x convention) for `0.9.5` → `0.9.6` → `0.9.7` → `0.9.8` → `0.10.0` → `0.10.1` → `0.10.2` covering PRs #180/#181/#183/#204/#205/#222/#224. Each row carries PR # + 1-line scope + backward-compat note + literature anchor. WORKFLOW.md - Phase Overview table 4.5 row marked ✅ DONE 2026-05-23 + 10b5-1 filter scope note - SEC Filing Roadmap Form 4 row flipped "planned" → "active" with 4-PR ladder reference (#167/#205/#222/#224 + 100% coverage on cron #3) - Phase 4.5e task list — 5 items flipped `[ ]` → `[x]` with per-PR commits + methodology-scientist Mode B verdicts inline + Aboody et al. 2010 §3.2 weight-promotion gate noted - Phase 4.5 Acceptance Criteria — all 9 items flipped to `[x]` with completion evidence (cron #3 / methodology verdicts / PR refs) - Phase 4.5f tag item — flipped `[ ]` → `[x]` (`v1.2.0-phase4.5` cut 2026-05-17 at 6d414a9) PHASE_STATUS_INFLIGHT.md - Append new "(this PR)" entry under In-flight section per the PR #237 side-file convention. Documents the doc-refresh scope + cross-refs to release-captain blockers 1/2/4/5 still pending. Lockstep - PR #237's PHASE_STATUS_INFLIGHT.md side-file pattern handles the §Conventions "ship with every PR" rule for this doc-only PR - No CLAUDE.md / AGENTS.md substantive change required — the in-flight entry lives in the side-file per the new convention - No compute / schema / scoring / valuation / frontend / Python / TypeScript code change - Unblocks v1.3.0 tag blocker #3; blockers 1 (wrong-branch), 2 (pyproject.toml 0.3.0 → 1.3.0), 4 (production output 1 cron cycle behind code), and 5 (release notes draft scope) still need resolution before tag cut
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…239) Addresses release-captain BLOCKED-ON-PRE-FLIGHT blocker #3 from the v1.3.0 tag attempt — PHASE_STATUS.md / SKILL.md / WORKFLOW.md were 3 days + ~32 PRs stale (last touched PR #171, 2026-05-21). Brings all three docs current to main HEAD 1ff6c11 so the release-captain ladder can re-attempt cleanly. PHASE_STATUS.md - Header date 2026-05-21 → 2026-05-24 - Current state table: schema 0.9.4-phase4h.4 → 0.10.2-phase4.5e; defense layer 27 → 32 emitted flags; subagent inventory 14 → 18 (named tier roster — 4 opus / 14 sonnet); skill inventory 42 → 43; production run a16c887 → 9015748 (cron #3 2026-05-23); release- tag line annotated with v1.3.0 target pending - Recently-merged block: refreshed to PR #170 → PR #237 (~36 entries with commit shas, chronological), drops the stale PR #147-#169 block - Next-deliverables list: 5 items updated — Phase 4.5e PR 5 cluster weight promotion / Issue #67 sector-CoE flip / v1.3.0 release tag gate / Phase 4i.1-4j.1-4k.1 factor integrations / Phase 5 ML meta-learner - Open issues line: drops resolved #155 (closed via PR #160), refreshes #41 (15 open advisories, zero exploitability on static-export), refreshes #67 (data-collection merged PR #204) SKILL.md - Schema-version table: 7 new rows added in reverse-chronological order (matches existing 0.9.x convention) for `0.9.5` → `0.9.6` → `0.9.7` → `0.9.8` → `0.10.0` → `0.10.1` → `0.10.2` covering PRs #180/#181/#183/#204/#205/#222/#224. Each row carries PR # + 1-line scope + backward-compat note + literature anchor. WORKFLOW.md - Phase Overview table 4.5 row marked ✅ DONE 2026-05-23 + 10b5-1 filter scope note - SEC Filing Roadmap Form 4 row flipped "planned" → "active" with 4-PR ladder reference (#167/#205/#222/#224 + 100% coverage on cron #3) - Phase 4.5e task list — 5 items flipped `[ ]` → `[x]` with per-PR commits + methodology-scientist Mode B verdicts inline + Aboody et al. 2010 §3.2 weight-promotion gate noted - Phase 4.5 Acceptance Criteria — all 9 items flipped to `[x]` with completion evidence (cron #3 / methodology verdicts / PR refs) - Phase 4.5f tag item — flipped `[ ]` → `[x]` (`v1.2.0-phase4.5` cut 2026-05-17 at 6d414a9) PHASE_STATUS_INFLIGHT.md - Append new "(this PR)" entry under In-flight section per the PR #237 side-file convention. Documents the doc-refresh scope + cross-refs to release-captain blockers 1/2/4/5 still pending. Lockstep - PR #237's PHASE_STATUS_INFLIGHT.md side-file pattern handles the §Conventions "ship with every PR" rule for this doc-only PR - No CLAUDE.md / AGENTS.md substantive change required — the in-flight entry lives in the side-file per the new convention - No compute / schema / scoring / valuation / frontend / Python / TypeScript code change - Unblocks v1.3.0 tag blocker #3; blockers 1 (wrong-branch), 2 (pyproject.toml 0.3.0 → 1.3.0), 4 (production output 1 cron cycle behind code), and 5 (release notes draft scope) still need resolution before tag cut Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
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… open-issues list (#291) Closes deferred substance items from PR #286 + PR #290 that opted to keep scope tight under the `pointer-to-CLAUDE.md` delegation pattern. Changes (1 file, AGENTS.md): - Line 377 — Production-verified run pointer bumped from cron #51 (`b1588b2a`, 2026-05-14) → cron #69 (`233117ac`, 13m 16s warm-cache, 2026-05-28). Cross-tool agents now have the current known-good baseline; verified by defense-layer-auditor + stock-detail-auditor on schema `0.10.7-phase4.6`. - Lines 380-382 — "Open Phase 4+ issues" list refreshed from 4 → 11 entries. Removed stale qualifier on #67 (PR #204 already landed data-collection; #67 is Phase 4 follow-up not Phase 5+). Added 7 missing issues: #115 (JKP license) · #130 (Q3 cohort) · #137 (9arm-skills license deadline 2026-06-17) · #150 (Phase 2-3 epic) · #287 (FORM4 revert + durable timeout) · #288 (GOOG/GOOGL XBRL) · #289 (NVR DQIC false positive). Added zero-exploitability context to #41. Doc-only PR. No compute / schema / scoring / valuation / frontend / Python / TS code change. CLAUDE.md substance untouched this PR (PR #286 + PR #290 already bumped it); this PR closes the AGENTS.md side of the lockstep. PHASE_STATUS_INFLIGHT.md side-file satisfies §Conventions lockstep per PR #237 convention. Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
This was referenced May 28, 2026
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…ector Ke) (#294) Closes Issue #67 — flips `USE_SECTOR_COE` False → True per methodology- scientist Mode B verdict 2026-05-28 + cron #69 empirical confirmation. Consumes the data-collection module landed in PR #204 (2026-05-22). Empirical gate satisfied (cron #69 metadata): - value_trap_risk_count_without_sector_coe: 132 (flat 10% Ke baseline) - value_trap_risk_count_with_sector_coe: 109 (per-GICS Ke 6-12%) - Delta: -23 tickers, -17.4% reduction - Absolute landing point (109) inside original PR #204 target band [80, 110] - 38%-vs-17% spread vs original projection explained by baseline drift (PR #166 Issue #11 RIM equity-denominator fix already removed ~44 FP from the pre-PR-#204 ~176 baseline; proportional difference is baseline drift, not signal failure) Methodology-scientist verdict (Damodaran 2019 Ch. 8.4 §"Industry Beta" + NYU January 2025 betas dataset): APPROVED. Lower-Ke sectors (Utilities/REIT/Staples) gain leniency; higher-Ke sectors (Tech/Energy) gain stringency; net is negative because S&P 500 has more market-cap exposure to defensives than the flat 10% baseline assumed. Changes (5 files): - compute/config.py:86 — USE_SECTOR_COE flipped True. Docstring rewritten to cite methodology verdict + cron #69 numbers + load-bearing-default semantics (flipping back requires separate methodology-scientist verdict). - compute/scoring/cost_of_equity.py:73-79 — module docstring updated to reflect post-flip state. - tests/test_scoring/test_value_trap_risk_sector_coe.py:134-156 — test renamed (`_flat_coe_path_unchanged_...` → `_use_sector_coe_default_ post_issue_67_flip`); assertion inverted from `not config.USE_SECTOR_COE` → `config.USE_SECTOR_COE`. Would BREAK on flip otherwise. - tests/test_config.py — new `test_use_sector_coe_flipped_true` pin added per methodology-scientist Q5b recommendation (Phase 2.4/2.5 convention: pin every config-value flip in tests/test_config.py). Impact (first methodology-affecting flip post-v1.4.0): - value_trap_risk universe count: 132 → 109 (per cron #69 dual-counter) - 23 newly-not-flagged tickers regain RIM as a contributing valuation method - Composite ranks shift for the cyclical-vs-defensive cohort (magnitude bounded by per-pillar weight + median-of-6 aggregation) - Rule 16 + Top-5 rotation mechanics UNCHANGED (only Ke parameter shift) - No schema change (Metadata dual-counter fields already shipped PR #204) - No new defense flag (defense layer count unchanged at 33 declared) Verification: - `ruff check .` — PASS - `python -m pytest tests/test_config.py tests/test_scoring/test_value_trap_risk_sector_coe.py tests/test_scoring/test_cost_of_equity.py tests/test_valuation/ -q -m "not network"` — 256 passed - `python -m pytest tests/ -q -m "not network" --ignore=tests/test_validation` — 1207 passed - methodology-scientist Mode B verdict — APPROVED (LITERATURE-ANCHORED) Deferred follow-ups (NOT in this PR): - Per-sector delta instrumentation (Metadata.value_trap_risk_delta_by_sector) — separate PR; universe-wide count sufficient for THIS flip per the gate contract - Q3 2026-08-19 cohort audit — natural review point for per-sector shape verification (~12 weekly crons of post-flip data by then; already in the issue #130 pre-prep checklist) Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
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… instrumentation Methodology-scientist Mode B Q2 follow-up deferred from PR #294 (sector- CoE flip, 2026-05-28 05:39 UTC). Adds `Metadata.value_trap_risk_delta_by_sector: dict[str, int] | None` so Q3 2026-08-19 quarterly cohort audit has visible per-sector shape evidence — not just the aggregate `value_trap_risk_count_*_sector_coe` scalars that landed in PR #204. Schema PATCH bump 0.10.9 → 0.10.10-phase4.6 (additive Metadata-only). Methodology context (Damodaran 2019 Ch. 8.4 §"Industry Beta"): After `USE_SECTOR_COE = True` per-sector Ke replaces the flat 10% baseline at SECTOR_COST_OF_EQUITY (11 GICS sectors, Ke 6%-12%). Directional predictions: - Lower-Ke sectors (Utilities ~6-7% / Real Estate ~7-8% / Consumer Staples ~7-8%): ROE ≥ Ke threshold relaxed → fewer RIM-skipped → POSITIVE delta (sector DROPPED flags) - Higher-Ke sectors (Information Technology ~11-12% / Energy ~10-12%): ROE ≥ Ke tightened → more RIM-skipped → NEGATIVE delta - Neutral sectors (6 GICS sectors at ~9-11%): small delta near zero Cron #69 + Run #71 universe-wide already confirmed the aggregate: 132 → 109 (−23 tickers, −17.4%). This PR breaks the −23 down by sector. Scope (10 files, additive only): - compute/output/schemas.py — new value_trap_risk_delta_by_sector field with full docstring (methodology-scientist verdict + Damodaran 2019 anchor + direction semantics) - frontend/lib/types.ts — mirror TS field as Record<string, number> | null - frontend/lib/schema-snapshot.json — regenerated via --update-snapshot - compute/config.py — SCHEMA_VERSION = "0.10.10-phase4.6" - compute/main.py — 3 surgical edits mirroring existing scalar dual-counter pattern (init two dict[str, int] counters / per-sector increment co-located with the existing scalar bump in both branches / delta computation in Metadata constructor) - tests/test_config.py — schema version pin bump + docstring rewrite - tests/test_output/test_value_trap_delta_by_sector_schema.py (NEW) — 2 active GREEN schema-contract tests (mirror test_wall_clock_schema.py pattern from PR #297) - CLAUDE.md — §Phase status pointer block refresh - AGENTS.md — open-issues #67 status: flip landed + per-sector follow-up in flight this PR - PHASE_STATUS_INFLIGHT.md — full in-flight entry per PR #237 side-file convention Implementation note: Per-sector dict construction uses `sorted(set(without) | set(with))` for stable key ordering; `.get(sec, 0)` fallback handles sectors appearing in only one path; `{} or None` falls back to None when both dicts are empty (test-mode universe). Co-located with the existing scalar bump in both `_rim_flat` (flat-Ke) and `_rim_sector` (sector-Ke) branches at the same `value_trap_risk_roe_below_cost_of_equity` reason guard — scalar and dict always stay in lockstep. Verification ladder: - ruff check . PASS - python -m compute.output.schema_check PASS (triple in sync 0.10.10) - pytest tests/test_config.py -v 11/11 PASS (pin held) - python -m pytest tests/test_output/ 2/2 NEW PASS - Full offline suite via test-engineer 1367 → 1369 (+2 NEW) Pre-push 3-reviewer gate: - schema-sentinel (sonnet) PASS (52 fields, triple aligned, PATCH bump correct, snapshot alphabetical ordering held) - test-engineer (sonnet) GREEN (2/2 new tests pass, 1367 → 1369, 0 regressions, 0 skipped stubs) - quantrank-reviewer (opus) READY-TO-PUSH (0 FAIL, 4 WARN all pre-existing PR-#297-era drift, defer to next housekeeping PR — incl. SKILL.md/PHASE_STATUS.md schema-table tops still on 0.10.8) Empirical validation gate (post-merge, next cron Run #72): - metadata.value_trap_risk_delta_by_sector populates as non-null dict - Damodaran shape directionally correct: Util/Real Estate/Staples POSITIVE, Information Technology/Energy NEGATIVE - sum(delta.values()) == without_sector_coe_count - with_sector_coe_count (= 23 per Run #71 universe-wide; matches within rounding) Note: per-sector accumulation runs in the Step 8 per-ticker loop, INDEPENDENT of cache-v5 cache busting (PR #298). Field populates on next cron regardless of warm/cold fetch path. Hard constraints honored: - No new defense flag · No scoring formula change · No Rule 16 / Top-5 violation - Additive-only schema change (PATCH bump) - Field nullable per Rule 18 graceful-degradation - Phase 4.5e PR 5 (cluster weight promotion) gate-data UNCHANGED — independent track Methodology decision: methodology-scientist verdict NOT re-requested — this is the EXACT field shape Mode B Q2 verdict from PR #294 explicitly authorized. Future re-trigger only if post-merge cron shows sector breakdown contradicting Damodaran prediction OR Q3 2026-08-19 audit reads ≥ 6 crons of data and per-sector decay pattern needs interpretation. https://claude.ai/code/session_01AGU8d6pm4u2fQQ5cebg9qa
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…ta instrumentation (#300) Methodology-scientist Mode B Q2 follow-up deferred from PR #294 (sector- CoE flip, 2026-05-28 05:39 UTC). Adds `Metadata.value_trap_risk_delta_by_sector: dict[str, int] | None` so Q3 2026-08-19 quarterly cohort audit has visible per-sector shape evidence — not just the aggregate `value_trap_risk_count_*_sector_coe` scalars that landed in PR #204. Schema PATCH bump 0.10.9 → 0.10.10-phase4.6 (additive Metadata-only). Methodology context (Damodaran 2019 Ch. 8.4 §"Industry Beta"): After `USE_SECTOR_COE = True` per-sector Ke replaces the flat 10% baseline at SECTOR_COST_OF_EQUITY (11 GICS sectors, Ke 6%-12%). Directional predictions: - Lower-Ke sectors (Utilities ~6-7% / Real Estate ~7-8% / Consumer Staples ~7-8%): ROE ≥ Ke threshold relaxed → fewer RIM-skipped → POSITIVE delta (sector DROPPED flags) - Higher-Ke sectors (Information Technology ~11-12% / Energy ~10-12%): ROE ≥ Ke tightened → more RIM-skipped → NEGATIVE delta - Neutral sectors (6 GICS sectors at ~9-11%): small delta near zero Cron #69 + Run #71 universe-wide already confirmed the aggregate: 132 → 109 (−23 tickers, −17.4%). This PR breaks the −23 down by sector. Scope (10 files, additive only): - compute/output/schemas.py — new value_trap_risk_delta_by_sector field with full docstring (methodology-scientist verdict + Damodaran 2019 anchor + direction semantics) - frontend/lib/types.ts — mirror TS field as Record<string, number> | null - frontend/lib/schema-snapshot.json — regenerated via --update-snapshot - compute/config.py — SCHEMA_VERSION = "0.10.10-phase4.6" - compute/main.py — 3 surgical edits mirroring existing scalar dual-counter pattern (init two dict[str, int] counters / per-sector increment co-located with the existing scalar bump in both branches / delta computation in Metadata constructor) - tests/test_config.py — schema version pin bump + docstring rewrite - tests/test_output/test_value_trap_delta_by_sector_schema.py (NEW) — 2 active GREEN schema-contract tests (mirror test_wall_clock_schema.py pattern from PR #297) - CLAUDE.md — §Phase status pointer block refresh - AGENTS.md — open-issues #67 status: flip landed + per-sector follow-up in flight this PR - PHASE_STATUS_INFLIGHT.md — full in-flight entry per PR #237 side-file convention Implementation note: Per-sector dict construction uses `sorted(set(without) | set(with))` for stable key ordering; `.get(sec, 0)` fallback handles sectors appearing in only one path; `{} or None` falls back to None when both dicts are empty (test-mode universe). Co-located with the existing scalar bump in both `_rim_flat` (flat-Ke) and `_rim_sector` (sector-Ke) branches at the same `value_trap_risk_roe_below_cost_of_equity` reason guard — scalar and dict always stay in lockstep. Verification ladder: - ruff check . PASS - python -m compute.output.schema_check PASS (triple in sync 0.10.10) - pytest tests/test_config.py -v 11/11 PASS (pin held) - python -m pytest tests/test_output/ 2/2 NEW PASS - Full offline suite via test-engineer 1367 → 1369 (+2 NEW) Pre-push 3-reviewer gate: - schema-sentinel (sonnet) PASS (52 fields, triple aligned, PATCH bump correct, snapshot alphabetical ordering held) - test-engineer (sonnet) GREEN (2/2 new tests pass, 1367 → 1369, 0 regressions, 0 skipped stubs) - quantrank-reviewer (opus) READY-TO-PUSH (0 FAIL, 4 WARN all pre-existing PR-#297-era drift, defer to next housekeeping PR — incl. SKILL.md/PHASE_STATUS.md schema-table tops still on 0.10.8) Empirical validation gate (post-merge, next cron Run #72): - metadata.value_trap_risk_delta_by_sector populates as non-null dict - Damodaran shape directionally correct: Util/Real Estate/Staples POSITIVE, Information Technology/Energy NEGATIVE - sum(delta.values()) == without_sector_coe_count - with_sector_coe_count (= 23 per Run #71 universe-wide; matches within rounding) Note: per-sector accumulation runs in the Step 8 per-ticker loop, INDEPENDENT of cache-v5 cache busting (PR #298). Field populates on next cron regardless of warm/cold fetch path. Hard constraints honored: - No new defense flag · No scoring formula change · No Rule 16 / Top-5 violation - Additive-only schema change (PATCH bump) - Field nullable per Rule 18 graceful-degradation - Phase 4.5e PR 5 (cluster weight promotion) gate-data UNCHANGED — independent track Methodology decision: methodology-scientist verdict NOT re-requested — this is the EXACT field shape Mode B Q2 verdict from PR #294 explicitly authorized. Future re-trigger only if post-merge cron shows sector breakdown contradicting Damodaran prediction OR Q3 2026-08-19 audit reads ≥ 6 crons of data and per-sector decay pattern needs interpretation. https://claude.ai/code/session_01AGU8d6pm4u2fQQ5cebg9qa Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Summary
Part of #67. Behind
USE_SECTOR_COE = Falsedefault — data-collection PR per Rule 18. Flip-to-True follow-up after ≥ 1 cron measures the delta-flag-count.What this PR does
compute/scoring/cost_of_equity.py— GICS-keyed Damodaran 2019 sector cost-of-equity tableconfig.USE_SECTOR_COE = False(OFF by default — no production change)compute/valuation/ensemble.py→rim_fair_priceDamodaran 2019 Table 8.4 + NYU January 2025 dataset — per-sector values
Default fallback: 10.0% (unchanged from
COST_OF_EQUITYconstant in config.py).Citation: Damodaran, A. (2019). Investment Valuation (3rd ed., Table 8.4). Wiley. + Damodaran NYU Stern "Cost of Equity by Industry — US" (January 2025, https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/).
Rule 18 observability fields added to Metadata (schema 0.9.7-phase4h.7 → 0.9.8-phase4h.8)
Both counts are computed every cron regardless of the flag, so the delta is measurable before the production flip. Expected direction:
value_trap_riskdrops from baseline ~176 toward ~80-110 (cyclical sectors whose 3y-mean ROE sits between sector Ke and flat 10% get un-flagged); Utilities/REITs with sector Ke < 10% may pick up new flags, so net empirical confirmation is required before flipping.Files changed
compute/scoring/cost_of_equity.pycompute/config.pycompute/valuation/ensemble.pycompute/main.pycompute/output/schemas.pyfrontend/lib/types.tsfrontend/lib/schema-snapshot.jsontests/test_scoring/test_cost_of_equity.pytests/test_scoring/test_value_trap_risk_sector_coe.pytests/test_config.pyCLAUDE.md+AGENTS.mdVerification
ruff check .→ cleanpytest tests/ -m "not network"→ 1094 passed (baseline 1059 + 40 new -5 renamed = net +35)python -m compute.output.schema_check→ ✓ in syncPre-merge sim delta (flag=False vs flag=True)
With
USE_SECTOR_COE=False(this PR default): Δscore = 0, Δflag-count = 0 — data-collection only, no production behavior change.With
USE_SECTOR_COE=True(sim override — NOT merged): The per-tickervalue_trap_risk_count_with_sector_coecounter inMetadatawill show the universe-wide count under sector Ke. Threshold for flipping default: ifvalue_trap_risk_count_with_sector_coedrops from baseline ~176 to ≤ 120 on the first cron (≥ 30% reduction confirming the cyclical-sector FP hypothesis), and methodology-scientist Mode B verifies the Damodaran table values — flipUSE_SECTOR_COE = Truein a dedicated follow-up PR.Constraints respected
compute_composite()/PHASE3_WEIGHTSuntouched ✓manipulation_index.pyweights untouched ✓https://claude.ai/code/session_01D6NTyJZa5LWHWakbF5dT29
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