docs(phase4.5c): mark 4.5c wave ✅ DONE + bump next deliverable to 4.5d#96
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Phase 4.5c Roychowdhury REM shipped via PR #95. Production verified on run #49 (commit `65097703`, warm-cache 6m25s — all 9 cache layers populated). ## What shipped `rem_suspect` annotate via per-sector OLS regressions on 3 abnormal proxies (CFO, Production, Discretionary Expenses). Module `compute/scoring/rem.py` (~420 LOC, pure-numpy via `np.linalg.lstsq`, no sklearn/statsmodels dep). 14 offline tests including golden numerical test recovering known-DGP coefficients. ## Production verification | Metric | Value | |---|---| | Fire rate | **16 / 502 (3.2%)** — within H0-to-correlation expected 2.8-7% | | Tickers fired | SMCI · WAT · ADM · TSN · HRL · STLD · FSLR · JBL · COHR · LII · LDOS · POOL · OMC · WY · TECH · RVTY | | Orthogonality check | NVDA / PLTR (Beneish-veto fired) **NOT** in REM list — confirms 4.5c captures real-manipulation signal orthogonal to accrual targets | | Real-world coverage | ADM (2024 SEC investigation) · SMCI (2024 investigation) · TSN / HRL (periodic scrutiny) · FSLR (solar channel-stuffing history) | ## End-state defense layer - Active vetoes: **7** (unchanged — 4.5c is annotate-only) - Annotate flags: 7 → **8** (+ `rem_suspect`) - Reason taxonomy: 31 → **32** - **Defense layer 9 → 14 after 4.5a + 4.5b + 4.5c** No schema delta — `rem_suspect` is a string in existing `valuation_warnings: list[str]`. `SCHEMA_VERSION` stays `0.7.1-phase4g`. ## Triple-doc lockstep changes | File | Change | |---|---| | `CLAUDE.md` | "Next deliverable" 4.5c → 4.5d. Defense layer "9 → 13 after 4.5a+4.5b" → "9 → 14 after 4.5a+4.5b+4.5c". 4.5c results + ticker list + orthogonality note inserted between 4.5b and the post-completion roadmap. | | `PHASE_STATUS.md` | Phase 4.5 row updated with 4.5c production stats. §4.5c header flipped to ✅ DONE 2026-05-17 with results table + orthogonality note. Original plan text preserved below for audit. | | `WORKFLOW.md` | §4.5c checkboxes [ ] → [x] with PR-number / LOC / test-count / production-verification citations + golden-test reference. | ## Next deliverable **Phase 4.5d — earnings-quality time-series + Burgstahler-Dichev kink at zero** (~180 LOC, ~7 days): - `m_score_deteriorating` annotate — Δ(Beneish M-score) > +0.5 over trailing 3y (manipulation gathering steam) - `loss_avoidance_pattern` annotate — NI ∈ [0, $5M] OR EPS ∈ [0, $0.05] for 3+ consecutive years (Burgstahler-Dichev 1997 kink) ## Audit trail (post-v1.0 doc PRs) | PR | Purpose | |---|---| | #81 | 4g ✅ DONE | | #86 | Phase 4.5 roadmap added | | #87 | "PR 4b next" → "§3 polish next" (was wrong) | | #88 | "§3 polish next" → "Phase-5 blocked" (was wrong) | | #92 | 4.5a wave ✅ DONE | | #94 | 4.5b wave ✅ DONE | | **this PR** | 4.5c wave ✅ DONE | ## Verification - No code changes; docs only - `grep "Next deliverable.*4.5c"` returns 0 hits (all moved to 4.5d) - `grep "9 → 14"` appears in CLAUDE.md (new defense layer count) - `grep "rem_suspect"` appears in PHASE_STATUS.md + WORKFLOW.md active-flags references https://claude.ai/code/session_015649aRyi2bvciQYZVNACd2
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…als_momentum_high + loss_avoidance_pattern) (#97) Phase 4.5 manipulation-defense cluster sub-PR 6 of 6 (the last purely-defense sub before 4.5f composite + UI bundling). Two annotate-only flags derived from the per-ticker fundamentals history (annual XBRL). ## What's new ### `accruals_momentum_high` — Δ(TATA) over 3y > +0.05 - TATA = (NetIncome − OperatingCashFlow) / TotalAssets, the Sloan 1996 / Beneish 1999 accruals backbone. - Threshold +0.05 ≈ Beneish 1999 ΔM > +0.5 via the β_TATA = 4.679 coefficient (ΔM ≈ 4.679 × ΔTATA → ΔM > 0.5 ⇔ ΔTATA > 0.107). We use 0.05 — more sensitive since TATA alone captures less than the full 8-ratio signal; standard practitioner adaptation when shortening to one ratio. - Catches manipulation **gathering steam** — the snapshot-only Sloan + Beneish flags miss the trajectory entirely. **Practical note on naming**: PR #86 plan §4.5d called this `m_score_deteriorating` (full Δ(Beneish M-score) > +0.5). We chose TATA momentum as a practical equivalent: building 3 historical 8-ratio Beneish snapshots from XBRL history would require expanding the annual-history coverage of 6+ supplementary ratios (DSRI / GMI / AQI / etc.) that often have gaps for prior years. TATA is the single Beneish component that's a level rather than a ratio-of-ratios, and Sloan 1996 established it as the standalone accruals signal — so this is a clean shortening, not a weakening. ### `loss_avoidance_pattern` — Burgstahler-Dichev 1997 kink at zero - Fires when **3+ consecutive fiscal years** of tiny-positive earnings: NI ∈ [\$0, \$5M] **OR** EPS ∈ [\$0.00, \$0.05]. - Per-share band catches the high-share-count case where NI alone is above the absolute floor but per-share is still tiny. - Empirical kink-at-zero signature of managers shading reported earnings just enough to clear the loss / loss-threshold. ## Architecture | File | Change | |---|---| | `compute/scoring/earnings_quality.py` | **NEW** ~250 LOC — `check_accruals_momentum` + `check_loss_avoidance` + history-walk helpers (`_annual_values`, `_value_at_year`). Pure pandas; no new deps. | | `compute/main.py` | + 2 import lines + 2 per-ticker annotate appends in the Step-8 loop, slotting after `rem_suspect`. | | `tests/test_scoring/test_earnings_quality.py` | **NEW** ~225 LOC — 14 offline tests covering both flags (fires / doesn't fire / improves / threshold pins / EPS-band fallback / negative-NI rejection / large-NI rejection / multi-year streak / streak break / constants sanity). | ## Defense-layer end-state (after this PR ships) - Active vetoes: **7** (unchanged — 4.5d is annotate-only) - Annotate flags: 8 → **10** (+ `accruals_momentum_high`, `loss_avoidance_pattern`) - Reason taxonomy: 32 → **34** stable identifiers - Total defense layers: **9 → 16** after 4.5a + 4.5b + 4.5c + 4.5d No schema delta — both flags are strings in existing `valuation_warnings: list[str]`. `SCHEMA_VERSION` stays `0.7.1-phase4g`. ## Backward compat - Both check functions take `(snap, history)` — no caller changes elsewhere. Missing inputs (snap=None, no history, insufficient years) cleanly return fired=False. - No new EDGAR fetches — both flags read from existing fundamentals + fundamentals_history caches. ## Verification ladder - ✅ `ruff check .` — clean - ✅ `pytest tests/test_scoring/test_earnings_quality.py` — **14 passed** - ✅ `pytest tests/ -m "not network"` — **831 passed** (was 817; +14 new) - ✅ schema_check — N/A (no schema delta) - ⏳ Production verification deferred. Expected fire rates on S&P 500: - `accruals_momentum_high` ~3-8% (~15-40 tickers) — H0 from Δ(TATA) > 0.05 base rate - `loss_avoidance_pattern` ~1-3% (~5-15 tickers) — S&P 500 firms rarely report tiny-positive earnings for 3+ years (mega-cap distribution); base rate higher on small-caps per Burgstahler- Dichev 1997 original sample ## Sibling sub-PRs (Phase 4.5 cluster) - ✅ **4.5a wave** (PRs #89 / #90 / #91 + #92 docs) - ✅ **4.5b** (PR #93 + #94 docs) - ✅ **4.5c** (PR #95 + #96 docs) - **4.5d (this PR)** — earnings-quality time-series - ⬜ **4.5e** — Form 4 insider clustering (~420 LOC, ~12 days — needs new SEC Form 4 parser) - ⬜ **4.5f** — `manipulation_index` composite + composite-score penalty + UI pillar card + README Honest Limitations + schema bump → **v1.2.0-phase4.5** https://claude.ai/code/session_015649aRyi2bvciQYZVNACd2 Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
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…e Google Fonts dependency (#98) PR #96 CI run #249 (docs(phase4.5c) merge to main) failed the Frontend (build) job with: NextFontError: Failed to fetch \`IBM Plex Sans\` from Google Fonts. at app/layout.tsx — IBM_Plex_Sans({subsets: ['latin'], weight: ['400','500','600','700'], display: 'swap', variable: '--font-ibm-plex-sans'}) A transient Google Fonts network blip during CI build broke `next/font/google`. The very next CI run (PR #97 4.5d) went green again — so the failure was a flaky external service, not a code regression. Production was unaffected (compute-rankings.yml runs independently of ci.yml). This commit closes the door on the failure mode for good by moving all 3 fonts from `next/font/google` to `@fontsource/*` npm packages (SIL Open Font License, OFL — free to redistribute): - `@fontsource/ibm-plex-sans` @ ^5.2.8 - `@fontsource/jetbrains-mono` @ ^5.2.8 - `@fontsource/instrument-serif` @ ^5.2.8 @fontsource bundles the woff2 files into node_modules, so the Next.js build never touches an external host. ## Changes | File | Change | |---|---| | `frontend/package.json` | + 3 `@fontsource/*` dependencies (and corresponding `package-lock.json` entries) | | `frontend/app/layout.tsx` | Drop `next/font/google` imports (`IBM_Plex_Sans`, `JetBrains_Mono`, `Instrument_Serif`). Drop the `className={...variable}` stack on `<html>`. CSS variables now declared in globals.css. | | `frontend/app/globals.css` | + 9 `@import '@fontsource/*'` lines (Plex 400/500/600/700, JetBrains 400/500/600, Instrument 400 normal + italic — exactly matches the prior next/font config). + 3 new CSS variable declarations (`--font-ibm-plex-sans`, `--font-jetbrains-mono`, `--font-instrument-serif`) so existing `--font-sans/mono/serif` chains keep resolving the same fallback stack. | ## Backward compat - All existing consumers (Tailwind utility classes, `StockLogo.tsx`'s inline `fontFamily: 'var(--font-mono)'`, globals.css base-style font-family rules) continue to read the same CSS variable names — no rename ripple-through. - Font-display behavior: @fontsource defaults to `font-display: swap` which matches the previous `display: 'swap'` config. - Bundle size impact: +~140KB woff2 files (vs the previous Google Fonts CDN fetch). Negligible on the static export; the resilience win outweighs the size cost. ## Verification - ✅ `next build` — 506 static pages built; no NextFontError - ✅ `tsc --noEmit` — clean - ✅ No external font fetch in build logs (verified via build output) - ✅ Build offline-capable from now on ## Why @fontsource not vendored woff2 files - @fontsource packages are the OFL-compliant official source - Updates ship via `npm update` if the IBM Plex / JetBrains / Instrument projects release new revisions - No license/attribution risk vs hand-vendoring binary files ## Not in this PR - npm audit warnings (5 vulns, 1 critical) are in the existing Next.js dep tree per issue #41 (Next.js 14 → 16 bump). Not introduced by this PR; tracked separately. https://claude.ai/code/session_015649aRyi2bvciQYZVNACd2 Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Summary
Phase 4.5c Roychowdhury REM shipped via PR #95. Production verified on run #49 (commit
65097703, warm-cache 6m25s).Production stats
End-state defense layer
rem_suspect)No schema delta.
SCHEMA_VERSIONstays0.7.1-phase4g.Triple-doc lockstep
CLAUDE.mdPHASE_STATUS.mdWORKFLOW.mdNext deliverable
Phase 4.5d — earnings-quality time-series + Burgstahler-Dichev kink (~180 LOC, ~7 days):
m_score_deterioratingannotate — Δ(Beneish M-score) > +0.5 over trailing 3yloss_avoidance_patternannotate — NI ∈ [0, $5M] OR EPS ∈ [0, $0.05] for 3+ consecutive years (Burgstahler-Dichev 1997)Test plan
grep "Next deliverable.*4.5c"returns 0 hitsgrep "9 → 14"in CLAUDE.mdgrep "rem_suspect"in active referenceshttps://claude.ai/code/session_015649aRyi2bvciQYZVNACd2
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