MacroArc

Multi-currency macro & FX prediction markets on Arc, Circle's stablecoin-native L1.

Parimutuel markets on central bank decisions, inflation prints and FX levels — settled instantly in USDC and EURC, with fiat-denominated gas. A market on ECB policy settles in EURC; a market on the Fed settles in USDC.

Built as a direct implementation of Circle's Arc Blueprint "Build Institutional Grade Prediction Markets on Arc".

Live on Arc Testnet

Live app	https://letitwork.store
Contract (MacroMarkets)	0xff95939b9eda771188ae5be523becc2098ffdbe7
Chain	Arc Testnet, chain ID 5042002
Settlement tokens	USDC 0x3600…0000 (native gas) · EURC 0x89B5…D72a
Deploy tx	0x2140…3e0f
Verified lifecycle (bet→resolve→claim)	0xb751…dac5f

Seeded markets: FOMC Sept 2026 rate decision (USDC) · US CPI Aug 2026 (USDC) · ECB Sept 2026 deposit rate (EURC) · EUR/USD ≥ 1.10 on Dec 31, 2026 (USDC) · Euro-area flash HICP Sept 2026 (EURC).

How it works

• Parimutuel pools — no order book, no market-maker dependency. Users stake YES or NO; winners split the losing pool pro-rata (1% protocol fee on winnings).
• Implied probability as an onchain signal — impliedYesBps(id) exposes market-implied odds to any contract or agent on Arc.
• Multi-currency by design — each market chooses its settlement stablecoin. USDC is also the gas token, so users never touch a volatile asset.
• Explicit resolution sources — every market names its source (BLS release, ECB reference rate, Fed statement). MVP resolves via operator; optimistic resolution module is next on the roadmap.

Repo layout

contracts/MacroMarkets.sol   core protocol (parimutuel, multi-token, claims)
compile.js                   solc compilation -> build/
deploy.js                    deploy + seed markets on Arc testnet
e2e.js                       full lifecycle test against Arc testnet
site/index.html              dApp frontend (ethers v6, zero-build static)
questbook-application.md     Circle Grants application draft

Run it yourself

npm install
node compile.js
echo "PRIVATE_KEY=0x..." > .env   # fund at https://faucet.circle.com (Arc Testnet)
node deploy.js
node e2e.js create && sleep 95 && node e2e.js finish

Frontend is a single static file — serve site/ with anything (nginx, python3 -m http.server). The wallet flow auto-adds Arc Testnet (chain 0x4CEF52).

Roadmap

1. Optimistic resolution (propose → challenge window → escalation)
2. Full G10 macro calendar + public probability API
3. Circle Wallets (passkey onboarding) + gasless first bet
4. Arc mainnet + CCTP/Gateway funding from any chain
5. StableFX: cross-currency positions (hold USDC, trade EURC markets)

Disclaimer

Testnet software, unaudited. Not an offer of financial services. Prediction markets may be regulated in your jurisdiction.