Hindsight 2026.1

First tagged release of the Hindsight dataset: published forecasts, graded against what happened.

What is in it (data/out, JSON and CSV with JSON Schemas and a datapackage.json)

• 28,102 dated claims from 36 sources, 1,052 editions, 5,938 subjects.
• 1,927 published verdicts on judgment claims (two blind grading agents, an adjudicator on disagreements, an audit agent on a fixed-seed sample).
• 18,559 numeric grades (forecast against the actual on the forecast's own definition, deterministic).
• validation: per source, the sample sizes, grader agreement (kappa), audit results and the intervals behind every rate (D11, D28, D44).

No total score and no ranking of publishers (D6, D17).

Licences. Code MIT. Data CC BY 4.0, except the Banco Central do Brasil Focus rows (ODbL 1.0). See NOTICE.md.

Rules. Every design choice is in docs/DECISIONS.md (D1 to D47).

Dispute a verdict with the issue template; a dispute reopens the claim and its history stays in the record.