fix(releases): Prevent false positive regressions when follows_semver flips after resolution

[shashjar]

Fixes #111393.

When has_resolution() determines that current_release_version is older than the event's release (semver), also check whether the event's release is older than the resolved-in release before declaring regression.

Fixes false positive regressions when follows_semver flips from False to True between resolution time & event arrival time.

[sentry]

Bug: The fallback version comparison == 1 incorrectly excludes cases where the event release is the same as the resolved-in release for in_next_release resolutions.
_{Severity: MEDIUM}

Suggested Fix

Change the comparison at line 147 to return compare_version_relay(res_release_raw, release_raw) >= 0 or != -1. This will correctly handle the case where the event release is equal to the resolved-in release, marking the resolution as valid.

Prompt for AI Agent

Review the code at the location below. A potential bug has been identified by an AI
agent.
Verify if this is a real issue. If it is, propose a fix; if not, explain why it's not
valid.

Location: src/sentry/models/groupresolution.py#L147

Potential issue: In the fallback logic for `in_next_release` resolutions, the version
comparison `compare_version_relay(res_release_raw, release_raw) == 1` is used. This
check only returns true if the resolved-in release is strictly greater than the event's
release. It incorrectly returns `False` (indicating a regression) when an event's
release version is the same as the release the issue was resolved in. This bug is
triggered when the `current_release_version` is stale, `follows_semver` is true, and the
event release version exactly matches the resolution release version.

_{Did we get this right? 👍 / 👎 to inform future reviews.}

[shashjar]

This is intentional:

• resolved_in_release > event_release -> NO regression
• resolved_in_release <= event_release -> regression

[scttcper]

looks good, i'd probably also tell that user to make sure their releases are all semver if they want our semver features to work