Hexatrade - Polymarket BTC 15-Minute Trading Bot

A terminal-based trading bot for Polymarket's BTC 15-minute prediction markets using the "Gabagool" strategy - a delta-neutral hedging approach that aims to profit regardless of market outcome.

Strategy Overview

The Gabagool strategy exploits price inefficiencies in binary prediction markets:

1. Entry: When market is skewed (one side cheaper than the other), buy the cheap side
2. Hedge: Buy the opposite side to create a delta-neutral position
3. Profit: If avg_YES + avg_NO < $1.00, you profit regardless of outcome (since winning side pays $1.00)

Example

Buy 50 YES @ $0.45 = $22.50
Buy 50 NO  @ $0.52 = $26.00
Total cost: $48.50

Outcome (either way): 50 shares x $1.00 = $50.00
Profit: $1.50 (guaranteed)

Urgency Levels

As market close approaches, the bot accepts higher pair costs:

• Normal (>10 min): max pair cost 0.995 (small profit)
• Eager (5-10 min): max pair cost 1.005 (tiny loss acceptable)
• Urgent (2-5 min): max pair cost 1.01 (1% loss acceptable)
• Emergency (<2 min): max pair cost 1.02 (2% loss to close position)

Features

• Real-time price streaming via WebSocket
• Terminal UI (TUI) with live prices, positions, and P&L
• Paper trading mode for testing
• Risk management (exposure limits, position limits)
• Automatic market discovery for BTC 15-minute markets

Installation

# Clone the repository
git clone <repo-url>
cd hexatrade

# Create virtual environment
python3 -m venv venv
source venv/bin/activate

# Install dependencies
pip install -r requirements.txt

Configuration

Copy the example environment file and configure:

cp .env.example .env

Edit .env with your credentials (only needed for live trading):

POLYMARKET_API_KEY=your_api_key
POLYMARKET_SECRET=your_secret
POLYMARKET_PASSPHRASE=your_passphrase
WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY=your_wallet_private_key

Key Settings (in config.py)

# Trading mode
TRADING_MODE = "paper"          # "paper" or "live"
PAPER_TRADING_BALANCE = 100.0   # Starting balance for paper trading

# Entry conditions
ENTRY_MIN_SKEW = 0.10           # Minimum price difference to enter
ENTRY_MAX_CHEAP_PRICE = 0.50    # Max price for cheap side

# Risk limits
MAX_TOTAL_EXPOSURE = 100.0      # Max $ across all markets
MAX_PER_MARKET_EXPOSURE = 50.0  # Max $ per market
MAX_UNHEDGED_MARKETS = 1        # Complete hedge before new position

Usage

Run the bot

source venv/bin/activate
python main.py

TUI Layout

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ Open Positions          │ Summary        │ Recent Activity  │
│ - Market positions      │ - Balance      │ - Trade logs     │
│ - P&L per position      │ - Exposure     │ - Blocked trades │
│                         │ - Expected P&L │                  │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│                    LIVE MARKET PRICES                       │
│ MARKET          YES        NO       SUM      SKEW   SIGNAL  │
│ BTC-15M-00AM   $0.5600   $0.4500   $1.0100  $0.11  BUY NO   │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Controls

• Ctrl+C - Graceful shutdown with final summary

Project Structure

hexatrade/
├── main.py              # Entry point, orchestrates components
├── config.py            # Configuration constants
├── trading_strategy.py  # Gabagool strategy implementation
├── position_tracker.py  # Tracks positions and calculates P&L
├── risk_manager.py      # Enforces trading limits
├── order_executor.py    # Paper/live order execution
├── market_discovery.py  # Finds active BTC 15-min markets
├── price_monitor.py     # Processes price updates
├── websocket_client.py  # WebSocket connection to Polymarket
├── tui.py              # Terminal user interface
└── requirements.txt     # Python dependencies

How It Works

1. Market Discovery: Finds active BTC 15-minute prediction markets on Polymarket
2. WebSocket Connection: Subscribes to real-time price updates
3. Strategy Evaluation: On each price update, evaluates if entry/hedge conditions are met
4. Risk Check: Validates trade against exposure limits
5. Execution: Places order (paper or live)
6. Position Tracking: Updates positions and calculates guaranteed profit

Risk Warnings

• This is experimental software for educational purposes
• Paper trading mode is recommended for testing
• Past performance does not guarantee future results
• Only trade with funds you can afford to lose
• Polymarket may have terms of service restrictions in your jurisdiction

Dependencies

• rich - Terminal UI
• websockets - WebSocket client
• requests - HTTP client
• python-dotenv - Environment variable loading