estate: rehydrate #1108 fat upgrade stack as fork-only soup layer

[heavygee]

Summary

Upstream tiann#1108 landed thin (skew banner + caps ads + soft-fail reopen + supervised Restart). Hub-push auto-upgrade was cut by Tiann (2026-08-02) and is not returning on tiann/hapi unless we open a new Lane A fight.

Estate still wants onboard-then-auto fleet upgrade. Replay fat upgrade paths onto current main (which already has the thin squash) as a fork-only soup layer. Do not re-open tiann#1108.

Blocked by

Meta remat of upstream squash 1cd4d1137 into driver soup. Do not remat fat tip 99568368f / 687982a84 as the tiann#1108 layer — thin already landed via upstream.

Pins (do not delete)

• origin/backup/hub-runner-version-governance-fat @ 687982a84
• origin/backup/hub-runner-version-governance-pr-head-fat @ fee9084b

After remat

1. Worktree off current upstream/main
2. Replay cli/src/upgrade/* + hub artifact/tunwg/fleet policy only (not duplicate banner/caps)
3. Soup layer e.g. estate/fleet-runner-upgrade
4. Dogfood: onboarded runner with live runner-self-upgrade auto-applies; legacy host must not 15m toast-loop

Plan: docs/plans/2026-08-11-operator-hold-chip.md Track B

Issues

Fork-only. Not a tiann PR unless operator explicitly says so.

[heavygee]

Remat blocker cleared.

Upstream squash 1cd4d1137 is in live driver soup (f5f96a423). Did not remat fat tips 99568368f / 687982a84 / fee9084b as the tiann#1108 layer.

Pins still present:

• origin/backup/hub-runner-version-governance-fat @ 687982a84
• origin/backup/hub-runner-version-governance-pr-head-fat @ fee9084b

Track B remains parked (not this wave). Hub process may still be the 16:54 bounce; disk soup is current.