Polymarket Shanghai Temperature Research & Trading Decision Platform

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A single-user, read-only research and trading-assist platform for Polymarket Shanghai daily max temperature markets.

• No auto-trading
• No wallet/private key integration
• Core output: Decision / Position / Reason

Core docs:

• Product Spec (CN): docs/PRODUCT_SPEC.zh-CN.md
• Change Workflow (CN): docs/CHANGE_WORKFLOW.zh-CN.md

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1) Positioning

This project is not a generic weather app. It is a decision terminal built around Polymarket resolution rules.

Core principle:

Polymarket Rules -> Resolution Station -> Resolution Source -> Final Value

Current scope:

• City: Shanghai
• Station: Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station (ZSPD)
• Resolution reference: Wunderground (as defined by Polymarket rules)

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2) Features

• Real-time Polymarket market fetch (Shanghai max temperature)
• Auto target-date rollover:
  • Use same-day market if still active
  • Switch to next-day market when closed/near settlement window
• Multi-source weather fusion (strict success/failure separation)
• Weather source policy layer: sourceKind / station match / freshness / health
• Probability distribution, Edge, risk flags, score, decision
• Nowcasting panel (current + next 1–6h)
• Snapshot and replay support
• Source bias stats for calibration
• Bilingual UI (?lang=zh / ?lang=en)

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3) Tech Stack

• Next.js (App Router)
• TypeScript
• Tailwind CSS
• shadcn/ui
• Prisma + SQLite
• Recharts
• Zod
• date-fns
• node-cron

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4) Trading Engine

Path: /src/lib/trading-engine

Main modules:

• tradingEngine.ts (entry: runTradingDecision)
• edge.ts
• timingScore.ts
• weatherScore.ts
• dataQuality.ts
• riskEngine.ts
• positionSizer.ts
• model.ts

Formula:

• Edge = ModelProbability - MarketPrice
• TradeScore = 0.35*EdgeScore + 0.25*TimingScore + 0.20*WeatherScore + 0.20*DataQualityScore

Decision mapping:

• tradableEV > 0.06 -> BUY
• 0.02 ~ 0.06 -> WATCH
• < 0.02 -> PASS

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5) Data Sources

Market

• Polymarket Gamma API

Weather Assist

• Wunderground/Weather.com (station anchor)
• Open-Meteo
• wttr
• met.no
• WeatherAPI (optional)
• QWeather (optional)
• AviationWeather (METAR/TAF for short-term risk)

Notes:

• Assist weather sources are not the final settlement source.
• If a source fails, status and reason are shown; no fake fallback data is injected.
• Open-Meteo is fetched with forced model: models=ecmwf_ifs04.
• Weight formula:
  • rawWeight = baseSourceWeight × matchScore × stationPenalty × accuracyScore × scenarioScore × regimeScore × freshnessScore × healthScore

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6) Pages

• / Home terminal
• /three-pm 3PM scanner
• /market/[slug] Market detail

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7) Database

Schema file: /prisma/schema.prisma

Core tables:

• markets
• market_bins
• resolution_metadata
• weather_assist_snapshots
• model_runs
• model_bin_outputs
• snapshots
• notes
• settled_results
• forecast_source_biases

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8) Local Setup

npm install
cp .env.example .env
npm run db:generate
npm run db:push
npm run db:seed
npm run dev

npm run dev runs one initial job:once -- all before starting Next.js.

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9) Useful Commands

npm run dev
npm run typecheck
npm run test

npm run job:once -- all
npm run job:once -- market
npm run job:once -- weather
npm run job:once -- model
npm run job:once -- settled

npm run jobs
npm run compare:openmeteo-wu

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10) Local-only Mode

This repo is now maintained as local-first only.

• No Cloudflare deployment path
• No Node service split deployment path
• Use local Next.js + Prisma + SQLite as the single source of truth

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11) Environment Variables

Copy .env.example and configure as needed.

Important keys:

• DATABASE_URL
• POLYMARKET_API_BASE
• POLYMARKET_EVENT_SLUG
• MARKET_ROLLOVER_WINDOW_MINUTES
• TOTAL_CAPITAL
• MAX_SINGLE_TRADE_PERCENT
• WEATHER_STRICT_SOURCES
• ENABLE_NWS_HOURLY
• FUSION_EXCLUDED_SOURCES
• WEATHERAPI_KEY
• QWEATHER_API_KEY
• AVIATIONWEATHER_API_BASE

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12) Port Notes

• Default: 3000
• If occupied: fallback to 3001
• Always use terminal Local: URL

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13) Scheduling

npm run jobs (node-cron):

• Market: every 5 min
• Weather: every 10 min
• Model: every 5 min
• Settled sync: daily 01:10

Manual APIs:

• POST /api/refresh
• POST /api/jobs/run (job=market|weather|model|settled|all)

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14) Final Output

• Decision: BUY / WATCH / PASS
• Position: suggested size
• Reason: explanation

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15) Disclaimer

This project is for research and decision support only, not investment advice.