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M9 · EWMA throughput estimator + measured cellular ceiling #24

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@joeblau

Severity: 🟠 high · Effort: M

The ABR is reactive-only and starts at the configured max; congestion is recognized only after ~3s of queue growth, and any cellular path is hard-capped at 2.5 Mbps regardless of the real 5G uplink. Add an EWMA throughput estimator to smooth the reduction math and seed initial/post-handoff bitrate from measured capacity, and let the upward probe exceed the 2.5 Mbps cellular seed (up to the user max) once throughput + clean-queue history justify it. Validate with Network Link Conditioner 5G/LTE profiles.

Evidence: NetworkPathMonitor.swift:65; RTMPPublisher.swift:986,991,1021-1028

From the architecture audit MVP backlog.

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