spacecost 0.4.0

The launch table, re-audited and more than doubled: 36 rows to 76, every
figure given a stated range with the headline at its centre, and a new
delivered-price model built on it. Data contract 1.15.0 → 1.16.0, and
VALUES moved, so this is the direction of the rule that obliges the bump.
operational_costs gains one row (below). The other four tables are
value-for-value identical apart from their catalog_date and
pipeline_version stamps.

🚨 This release re-prices economicspace in BOTH Stage 2 and Stage 3.
Stage 2: every in-space price comes from delivered_cost_usd_per_kg, and that
model changed (next section). Stage 3: the launch CSV, the cross-join summary
(39,852 → 84,132 rows) and every $/kg a Module 4 ranking reads have moved. The
20-cell campaign and its frozen campaign/stage2/ prices were measured under
0.3.x, so nothing measured there compares across this release until it is
re-run. delivered_cost_usd_per_kg(dest, 4253.0, stage_hardware=False)
reproduces every 0.3.x delivered price bit for bit, which is what re-deriving
an old result needs. downleg_cost_usd_per_kg did not move.

Delivered prices: a new model, chosen for today's market

delivered_cost_usd_per_kg is the launch cost a kilogram already in space
avoids, and it is the miner's REVENUE. Two things were wrong with it. Both are
fixed against today's market, reading the same central figures as the
rest of the package: each launch row's headline and each cost row's value.

• The LEO price was Falcon 9 (reusable) at $4,253/kg, chosen as "the
  cheapest operational figure", which it never was. It is now whatever a
  stated rule selects: operational, open, priced by the launcher itself
  (published or contract), lowest headline usd_per_kg_to_leo. That is
  Falcon Heavy (expendable), $2,414/kg, SpaceX's $150-159M for 63.8 t. New
  Glenn's $1,922 is excluded because the bottom of its range is a rival's
  estimate; Starship because it does not fly. The rule is asserted at import, so a table edit
  that changes the winner fails loudly instead of re-pricing every
  destination. New exports: LEO_LAUNCH_VEHICLE, leo_anchor_candidates().
• Every stage a chain expends was charged for its launch and never for
  being built. delivery_hardware_usd_per_kg() now charges tug dry mass at
  the new Expendable upper stage recurring cost row, lander dry mass at
  Surface lander recurring cost, what an entry discards at the TPS rate, and
  the propellant at the hydrolox price, each at its row's value.

destination	0.3.x	0.4.0	of which hardware
leo	4,253	2,414	0
geo	12,526	8,046	937
cislunar	10,810	6,878	742
mars_orbit	13,496	8,706	1,046
lunar_surface	21,210	42,635	30,597
mars_surface	45,105	184,811	159,209

Orbital destinations fall about a third; the two surfaces rise steeply,
because a lander ($200k/kg) and an aeroshell ($50k/kg) were being thrown away
for free. Two new tests hold the result
against the market: GEO may not exceed buying GTO directly and flying only the
apogee burn, and cislunar may not exceed the cheapest direct escape launch.
delivered_cost_usd_per_kg gains stage_hardware=True; with it False the
function is linear in leo_usd_per_kg again, as before.

⚠️ Still a lower bound, and meant to be. No NRE, no programme overhead,
and a hydrolox tug nobody sells as a product yet. Lunar surface at $42,635/kg
sits against real CLPS delivery at roughly $1M/kg.

New operational_costs row Expendable upper stage recurring cost,
$4,800/kg of stage dry mass: the geometric centre of a range from $1,750
(Falcon 9's mass-produced kerolox stage, $7-10M on ~4 t) to $13,400 (Centaur
III, the hydrolox stage the chains actually fly, built at a low rate).

Falcon Heavy (reusable)'s optimistic 57 t LEO is removed. It had no
source, and a headline centred on an unsourced end would carry the error into
every figure derived from it. Its band collapses onto 30 t.

Errors fixed in existing rows

These were wrong rather than stale. Each row's notes now says what it used
to carry.

• SLS Block 1B was operational; it never flew, and NASA cancelled it
  with the Exploration Upper Stage in Feb 2026. Now concept. Its $4.1B
  was NASA OIG's per-Artemis-flight figure including Orion; it now carries
  the launch-only $2.5-2.8B. Its 41 t GTO had been scaled, not published, and
  is gone. SLS Block 1, which has flown twice, is added.
• Zhuque-3 carried 21 t / 18.3 t LEO, which are the figures for the
  enlarged ZQ-3E. The ZQ-3 that flies lifts 8 t reusable (11.8 t expendable).
  Promoted to operational after two successful orbital flights.
• Terran R paired its 33.5 t expendable LEO with a reusable price; now
  23.5 t. Nova carried 5 t as fully reusable; the figure is 3 t.
• Vulcan VC6 was priced at $110M, which is ULA's starting price for the
  smallest configuration. Its 7,200 kg "escape" was the GEO payload. And it
  has never flown (every Vulcan to date was VC2S or VC4S), so it drops from
  TRL 9 to 8 while staying operational as a configuration of a flying
  vehicle.
• PSLV-XL carried 1,100 kg to escape. Chandrayaan-1 and the Mars Orbiter
  Mission were both put into Earth orbit and raised themselves; now 0.
• H3 (24L) cited the ¥5B target, which is for the H3-30.
• Soyuz-2.1b GTO was the Kourou figure; Soyuz has not flown from Kourou
  since 2022.
• Atlas V is still operational but ULA stopped selling it in 2021; it is
  now marked sold_out.
• Prose: LVM3 was called human-rated (Gaganyaan has not flown crew); H-IIA was
  "49 flights" (50); New Glenn's "3 successful flights" omitted that NG-3 left
  its payload in the wrong orbit.

Every figure is a range, and the headline is its centre

Where a source gave a range, the row used whichever end was to hand, which for
New Glenn was the LOW price. Every row now states either one figure, where the
source gives one, or the low and high ends of a credible range, and a ranged
headline price and payload are DERIVED as the range's geometric centre,
sqrt(low x high) to three significant figures (vehicles.band_centre). A
narrow range barely moves; a wide one lands in the middle rather than at an
end. Geometric rather than arithmetic, because launch prices are uncertain by
factors: the Shuttle's $450M-$2.1B centres at $972M, not $1.28B.

The ranges themselves lean conservative, and that is where the conservatism
now lives: a target (anything not yet flying) is always the optimistic end,
never the headline. The largest LEO moves: Zhuque-3 $1,429 → $4,425/kg,
Starship $900 → $1,603 (a 35-100 t range, from what Block 2 delivered to the V3
target), Falcon Heavy reusable $1,702 → $3,333 (30 t, since SpaceX publishes no
LEO figure for that mode), Vega C $11,212 → $16,581, New Glenn $1,511 → $1,922.
Starship's tanker_flights_for_escape stays at 12, the centre of the 8-16
quoted. The full value-by-value list is recoverable with a git diff of
reference/launch_vehicles.csv.

40 new rows

Configurations people actually price: Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy expendable,
Vulcan VC2 and VC4, H3-30. Flying vehicles that were missing: SLS Block 1,
Minotaur IV, Soyuz-2.1a, Angara A5, Proton-M, Spectrum, GSLV Mk II, SSLV, Nuri,
Long March 2C, 2D, 3B/E, 4C, 6A, 8A, 10B and 12, Kuaizhou-1A and -11, Ceres-1,
Gravity-1, Kinetica-1 and -2, Jielong-3, Zhuque-2E, Pallas-1. In development:
New Glenn 9x4, Soyuz-5, Epsilon S, Hyperbola-3. Retired, for the historical
figures a reader will meet: Pegasus XL, Ariane 5 ECA, Vega, Space Shuttle,
Saturn V.

Deliberately not added, for want of a price or payload worth citing:
Angara-1.2, Antares 330, Long March 11, 12A and 12B, Hyperbola-1, Ceres-2,
RFA One, Astra Rocket 4, and the Iranian and North Korean launchers, which are
not a market.

Schema: 20 new columns on launch_vehicles.csv

Appended after the existing 18, so no existing column moved position.

• country, availability (open / restricted / government_only /
  sold_out / unavailable), reusability, core_propellant,
  first_flight_year, price_basis.
• list_price_usd_low / _high and payload_{leo,gto,escape}_kg_low /
  _high.
• usd_per_kg_to_{leo,gto,escape}_low / _high, derived.

⚠️ usd_per_kg_to_* is now DERIVED at import, not typed. A row that
types one raises. So does a headline outside its own band, a vocabulary typo,
an unknown key, or a row that does not state availability.

⚠️ payload_gto_kg and payload_escape_kg are now float columns. A
payload of NaN means "no figure published", which is not the same as 0, "does
not go there", and a column holding NaN cannot be int64. The CSV writes
5500.0 where it wrote 5500. first_flight_year is nullable Int64, so it
writes 2010, or nothing for a vehicle that has not flown.

API

• cheapest_launch_to(..., purchasable_only=False) and spacecost launch --open-only: keep only availability == "open". Off by default.
• validate holds the launch price and payload bands to the same
  inside-its-own-range rule as operational_costs.
• tests/test_delivery.py pinned DATA_VERSION == "1.15.0" as a stand-in for
  "delivery is not an output". It now checks that directly.