Edge Spectrum 🟢

A unified multi-tool hub for sports betting, investing, gambling, and odds analysis. Compare expected returns across time horizons, backtest sports wagering strategies over 25 years of game data, and analyze edges.

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🚀 Overview

Edge Spectrum is an interactive playground for exploring mathematical edges. It brings together two core analytical applications:

1. The Edge Spectrum Expected-Return Visualizer (/spectrum/): Compares expected cumulative returns across 187 financial, investing, trading, and gambling activities over 7 time horizons (1 Bet to 10 Years), standardized using the DU/CED framework.
2. The Backtest Simulator (/backtester): Backtests sports wagering strategies across 25 years of MLB, NFL, NHL, and NBA games, providing ROI diagnostics, equity curves, live ESPN scores, and an AI Strategy Advisor powered by Gemini.

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🛠️ Applications & Features

1. The Edge Spectrum Expected-Return Visualizer

Served as a static page at /spectrum/index.html (internally routes to public/spectrum/index.html).

• 13 Asset/Bet Categories: Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate, Crypto, Precious Metals, Collectibles, Insurance/Annuities, Sports Betting, Casino, Poker, Prediction Markets, and Lottery.
• Universal DU/CED Framework: Standardized expected returns via: $$\text{Expected Return} = \text{Decision Units (DU)} \times \text{Capital Exposure per Decision (CED)} \times \text{Edge}$$
• Interactive Controls: Toggle any combination of categories, adjust time horizons (1 Bet to 10 Years), switch overlays (Raw Returns, Fee-Adjusted, After-Tax).
• Insights Overlays:
  • Addiction Risk Scoring: Color-coded border alerts based on feedback loops and documentation of problem behavior.
  • Ruin Calculator: Projects hand/bet count until a $1,000 bankroll hits zero under negative-edge scenarios.
  • Dollar Cost Comparison: Translates percentages into actual dollar outcomes based on a $100/week contribution.

2. The Sports Wagering Backtester

Served inside the SPA React shell at /backtester.

• 25 Years of Historical Odds & Results: In-depth database for MLB, NFL, NHL, and NBA.
• Custom Strategy Builder: Define wager filters based on home/away status, bookmaker odds (favorites/underdogs), and custom edge margins.
• Position Sizing Models: Standard flat betting vs. Kelly Criterion sizing (Full/Fractional).
• Interactive Reports: Analyze cumulative profit curves, win rates, ROI, Kelly diagnostics, and drawdowns.
• Live Scoreboard integration: Pulls real-time ESPN scoreboard updates.
• Gemini AI Strategy Advisor: Iterates on backtest results to suggest portfolio optimizations, staking alterations, or parameter tuning.

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🏗️ Repository Architecture

edge-spectrum/
├── site/                  # ← THE WEB APP (Vercel Root Directory = site)
│   ├── api/               # Vercel serverless functions (backtest, ESPN, Gemini advisor)
│   ├── public/
│   │   ├── favicon.svg    # The served app icon
│   │   └── spectrum/      # The Edge Spectrum static Plotly visualization page
│   ├── src/
│   │   ├── components/    # Backtester UI components (AiAdvisor, StrategyBuilder, ProfitChart, etc.)
│   │   ├── pages/
│   │   │   └── Home.tsx   # Landing page (dashboard tile grid mapping over tools.ts)
│   │   ├── server/        # Shared backend engines (backtest, ESPN score, Gemini prompt engines)
│   │   ├── App.tsx        # Main router shell & top-nav bar
│   │   ├── main.tsx       # React bootstrap
│   │   └── tools.ts       # The Registry — SINGLE SOURCE OF TRUTH for all tools
│   ├── server.ts          # Express local dev server (proxies/runs Vite + serverless local engines)
│   ├── package.json       # Scripts & node dependencies
│   └── vercel.json        # Vercel configuration (SPA routing overrides & API serverless mappings)
├── Docs/                  # In-depth logs, standardized analysis, and future ideas
├── Data/                  # Current and legacy edge datasets
├── Images/                # Logos, icons, screenshots, and favicon.svg (archived copy of the app icon)
└── Versions/              # Legacy and alternate versions (Streamlit port, original themes)

Note: everything the site needs lives under site/; the repo root holds only docs and archives. Run all app commands (npm …, vercel …) from inside site/.

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⚡ Quick Start (Local Development)

1. Prerequisites

• Node.js (v18+ recommended)
• Gemini API Key (to enable the AI Advisor)

2. Installation

Clone the repository, then install the dependencies from the site/ directory (where the app lives):

cd site
npm install

3. Environment Setup

Create a .env file inside site/:

GEMINI_API_KEY=your_gemini_api_key_here
PORT=3001

4. Running the Development Server

Starts the local Express server at http://localhost:3001 with Vite middleware for React hot-reloading:

npm run dev

5. Build and Test Production Build

npm run build
npm start

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🔌 Adding a New Tool

To add a new tool to the Edge Spectrum hub, follow the three-step recipe:

1. Register the Tool: Add an entry to the TOOLS array in tools.ts:

   {
     slug: 'my-new-tool',
     title: 'My Custom Tool',
     blurb: 'Brief description of the tool...',
     icon: MyIconName,
     href: '/my-new-tool', // or direct static path
     kind: 'route',        // 'route' | 'static' | 'external'
     status: 'live',       // 'live' | 'wip' | 'soon'
     accent: 'violet',     // Color scheme name
     tag: 'Utility'
   }

2. Mount the Code:
   • route kind: Build the page component under site/src/pages/MyNewTool.tsx and add its <Route> path inside App.tsx.
   • static kind: Put your HTML/CSS/JS folder inside site/public/my-new-tool/ and link its href to /my-new-tool/index.html.
   • external kind: Set href to the external destination URL (it will open in a new tab).
3. Accent Setup: Ensure the selected accent name exists inside the Tailwind literal mapping inside Home.tsx so the JIT compiler generates the appropriate borders and glows.

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🚀 Deployment

The site is hosted on Vercel (edge-spectrum.mikesailab.com). The Vercel project's Root Directory is set to site, so it builds from the app subdirectory.

• Production branch: main (automatically deployed on push/merge).
• Local deployment check: You can use the Vercel CLI (run from site/) to verify preview environments before merging:

  cd site
  vercel deploy

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⚠️ Disclaimer

Expected returns are modeled averages derived from historical market data, bookmaker averages, and retail-trader statistics. Individual results vary drastically due to short-term variance.

Caution

For educational purposes only. This tool does not constitute investment or gambling advice.

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_{Managed by Mike's AI Lab · Standalone HTML/CSS/Plotly viz and React/Vite dashboard
GAMBLING: LINEAR DECAY · INVESTING: COMPOUND APPRECIATION}