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Record blocked SOTA-v3 design and route catalog - #103

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nedcut merged 3 commits into
mainfrom
chore/sota-v3-prereg-freeze
Jul 28, 2026
Merged

Record blocked SOTA-v3 design and route catalog#103
nedcut merged 3 commits into
mainfrom
chore/sota-v3-prereg-freeze

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@nedcut

@nedcut nedcut commented Jul 28, 2026

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Outcome

Records the no-spend SOTA-v3 preregistration work without claiming execution readiness.

  • freezes an eight-model public route metadata catalog and pricing snapshot
  • adds exact-route validation coverage
  • adds exact paired sign-flip confidence interval support and power-design tooling
  • corrects the power simulation to include the historical shared seed effect
  • records the resulting negative design finding: no supported 9-20 seed by 1-3 repeat allocation reaches the predeclared 0.80 familywise target for all eight models
  • hardens private-seed salt creation to owner-only, non-overwriting plaintext with explicit encrypted-escrow guidance
  • keeps all authenticated smoke, panel, spend, and publication authorizations disabled

Validation

  • 651 tests passed
  • Ruff format and lint passed
  • contract validation passed
  • web lint and build passed
  • clean-checkout SOTA-v3 rehearsal passed at zero dollars
  • public route metadata validation passed for all eight registered routes
  • exact paired sign-flip implementation checked against exhaustive enumeration

Remaining gates

Before any paid work: choose a viable statistical design or revise the preregistered claim; prove authenticated account route access and privacy/retention behavior; resolve the Luna reasoning-policy ambiguity with an explicitly authorized strict smoke; freeze the output token cap and cost ceiling; then separately authorize private seed generation, smoke spend, and panel spend.

Summary by CodeRabbit

  • New Features

    • Added a frozen public catalog of eight model routes, supported options, and point-in-time pricing.
    • Added stronger private seed-panel commitment and execution-hash safeguards.
    • Added exact familywise power analysis for evaluating panel allocations.
  • Bug Fixes

    • Improved exact sign-flip calculations, including boundary handling and shared-variance modeling.
  • Documentation

    • Updated publication readiness, route-catalog, statistical audit, and seed-protection guidance.
  • Validation

    • SOTA-v3 publication remains blocked because no tested allocation meets the required power threshold.

Copilot AI review requested due to automatic review settings July 28, 2026 04:53

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Copilot was unable to review this pull request because the user who requested the review has reached their quota limit.

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coderabbitai Bot commented Jul 28, 2026

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Review details
⚙️ Run configuration

Configuration used: defaults

Review profile: CHILL

Plan: Pro Plus

Run ID: 299afa30-a96e-4d4c-9b11-615da4a1331a

📥 Commits

Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between 0692d1f and 2ab7435.

📒 Files selected for processing (7)
  • config/sota_v3_pricing_snapshot.json
  • results/analysis/output-budget-cost-estimate.json
  • scripts/estimate_publication_cost.py
  • scripts/seed_panel_commitment.py
  • tests/test_publication_cost.py
  • tests/test_seed_panel_commitment.py
  • tests/test_sota_v3_route_catalog.py
📝 Walkthrough

Walkthrough

SOTA-v3 preregistration now records a blocked power design, while public model and pricing catalogs are frozen as metadata-only snapshots. Statistical tooling adds exact familywise simulation and optimized sign-flip calculations. Seed commitment tooling adds protected secret creation, ordered execution hashing, and validation gates.

Changes

SOTA-v3 readiness controls

Layer / File(s) Summary
Blocked statistical design and exact power evaluation
config/sota_v3_lane.json, scripts/panel_power.py, scripts/analyze_publication_panel.py, tests/test_panel_power.py, tests/test_publication_analysis.py, tests/test_sota_v3_preregistration.py, docs/run_logs/sota-v3-statistical-design-audit-2026-07-28.md, docs/PUBLISH_READINESS.md
The evaluated seed/repeat grid remains blocked; exact reference-family simulation, sensitivity Wilson bounds, corrected sign-flip p-values, and corresponding tests and audit records are added.
Frozen public route catalog with fail-closed authorization
config/sota_v3_models.json, config/sota_v3_pricing_snapshot.json, tests/test_sota_v3_route_catalog.py, tests/test_sota_v3_preregistration.py, docs/run_logs/sota-v3-route-catalog-freeze-2026-07-28.md
Eight model routes and pricing records are frozen as public metadata, with route limitations and authorization flags preserving blocked provider phases.
Private seed commitment and execution identity controls
scripts/seed_panel_commitment.py, gm_bench/publication.py, tests/test_seed_panel_commitment.py, tests/test_publication_runner.py, docs/production_benchmark.md, docs/PUBLISH_READINESS.md
Commitment creation now uses exclusive mode-0600 files, while ordered private seeds can be validated and hashed without exposing seed values.

Estimated code review effort: 4 (Complex) | ~60 minutes

Possibly related issues

  • nedcut/gm-bench#93 — The PR freezes SOTA-v3 route metadata and formalizes preregistration and private-seed gates.
  • nedcut/gm-bench#84 — The PR adds the exact familywise power audit and records the blocked allocation decision.

Possibly related PRs

  • nedcut/gm-bench#99 — Both changes extend scripts/panel_power.py with panel-power and variance-simulation behavior.
  • nedcut/gm-bench#102 — Both changes update SOTA-v3 fail-closed publication validation and related tests.

Sequence Diagram(s)

sequenceDiagram
  participant panel_power
  participant ResultFiles
  participant sign_flip_p_value
  participant holm_adjust
  panel_power->>ResultFiles: Load reference lift cells
  panel_power->>panel_power: Simulate allocation and sensitivity trials
  panel_power->>sign_flip_p_value: Calculate contrast p-values
  panel_power->>holm_adjust: Apply Holm correction
  holm_adjust-->>panel_power: Return familywise rejection metrics
Loading
🚥 Pre-merge checks | ✅ 4 | ❌ 1

❌ Failed checks (1 warning)

Check name Status Explanation Resolution
Docstring Coverage ⚠️ Warning Docstring coverage is 26.67% which is insufficient. The required threshold is 80.00%. Write docstrings for the functions missing them to satisfy the coverage threshold.
✅ Passed checks (4 passed)
Check name Status Explanation
Description Check ✅ Passed Check skipped - CodeRabbit’s high-level summary is enabled.
Title check ✅ Passed The title clearly summarizes the main change: blocking the SOTA-v3 design and freezing the route catalog.
Linked Issues check ✅ Passed Check skipped because no linked issues were found for this pull request.
Out of Scope Changes check ✅ Passed Check skipped because no linked issues were found for this pull request.
✨ Finishing Touches
🧪 Generate unit tests (beta)
  • Create PR with unit tests
  • Commit unit tests in branch chore/sota-v3-prereg-freeze

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Actionable comments posted: 1

🧹 Nitpick comments (2)
tests/test_sota_v3_route_catalog.py (1)

45-53: 📐 Maintainability & Code Quality | 🔵 Trivial | 💤 Low value

Assert authorization flags are exactly False.

Truthiness passes for 0, None, or "", which would let a malformed registry look "locked". The sibling assertions in this file use is False.

♻️ Proposed tightening
-    assert not any(
-        registry[key]
-        for key in (
-            "spend_authorized",
-            "route_preflight_authorized",
-            "panel_execution_authorized",
-            "publication_authorized",
-        )
-    )
+    for key in (
+        "spend_authorized",
+        "route_preflight_authorized",
+        "panel_execution_authorized",
+        "publication_authorized",
+    ):
+        assert registry[key] is False, key
🤖 Prompt for AI Agents
Verify each finding against current code. Fix only still-valid issues, skip the
rest with a brief reason, keep changes minimal, and validate.

In `@tests/test_sota_v3_route_catalog.py` around lines 45 - 53, Update the
authorization-flag assertion in the registry test to require each listed value
to be exactly False, matching the sibling assertions, rather than merely falsy;
preserve the existing keys and locked-state validation.
tests/test_seed_panel_commitment.py (1)

98-105: 📐 Maintainability & Code Quality | 🔵 Trivial | ⚡ Quick win

Optional: cover the remaining execution-hash rejection branches.

The count-mismatch and committed-preset-overlap guards in scripts/seed_panel_commitment.py (Lines 170-176) are the two gates that actually protect panel secrecy/identity, and neither is exercised. Two more assert main([...]) == 2 cases would close that.

🤖 Prompt for AI Agents
Verify each finding against current code. Fix only still-valid issues, skip the
rest with a brief reason, keep changes minimal, and validate.

In `@tests/test_seed_panel_commitment.py` around lines 98 - 105, Extend
test_execution_hash_rejects_missing_or_low_entropy_seed_env to cover the
execution-hash count-mismatch and committed-preset-overlap rejection branches in
commitment_mod.main. Add separate seed-panel environment/lane setups that
trigger each guard and assert main([...]) returns 2, preserving the existing
missing and low-entropy cases.
🤖 Prompt for all review comments with AI agents
Verify each finding against current code. Fix only still-valid issues, skip the
rest with a brief reason, keep changes minimal, and validate.

Inline comments:
In `@config/sota_v3_pricing_snapshot.json`:
- Around line 22-97: The sota-v3 cost estimation flow in
scripts/estimate_publication_cost.py currently ignores model-specific
internal_reasoning and long_context_override pricing from the models in
sota_v3_pricing_snapshot.json. Update the estimator to apply internal_reasoning
rates for Gemini and threshold-based long_context_override prompt/completion
rates for OpenAI, Qwen, and xAI; alternatively, explicitly document that
expected_output_tokens_per_decision already includes those costs.

---

Nitpick comments:
In `@tests/test_seed_panel_commitment.py`:
- Around line 98-105: Extend
test_execution_hash_rejects_missing_or_low_entropy_seed_env to cover the
execution-hash count-mismatch and committed-preset-overlap rejection branches in
commitment_mod.main. Add separate seed-panel environment/lane setups that
trigger each guard and assert main([...]) returns 2, preserving the existing
missing and low-entropy cases.

In `@tests/test_sota_v3_route_catalog.py`:
- Around line 45-53: Update the authorization-flag assertion in the registry
test to require each listed value to be exactly False, matching the sibling
assertions, rather than merely falsy; preserve the existing keys and
locked-state validation.
🪄 Autofix (Beta)

Fix all unresolved CodeRabbit comments on this PR:

  • Push a commit to this branch (recommended)
  • Create a new PR with the fixes

ℹ️ Review info
⚙️ Run configuration

Configuration used: defaults

Review profile: CHILL

Plan: Pro Plus

Run ID: ee8a8f62-78d8-4595-86e3-e5656ea27867

📥 Commits

Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between 070427a and 0692d1f.

📒 Files selected for processing (19)
  • config/sota_v3_lane.json
  • config/sota_v3_models.json
  • config/sota_v3_pricing_snapshot.json
  • config/sota_v3_publication_protocol.json
  • docs/PUBLISH_READINESS.md
  • docs/production_benchmark.md
  • docs/run_logs/sota-v3-preflight-2026-07-27.md
  • docs/run_logs/sota-v3-route-catalog-freeze-2026-07-28.md
  • docs/run_logs/sota-v3-statistical-design-audit-2026-07-28.md
  • gm_bench/publication.py
  • scripts/analyze_publication_panel.py
  • scripts/panel_power.py
  • scripts/seed_panel_commitment.py
  • tests/test_panel_power.py
  • tests/test_publication_analysis.py
  • tests/test_publication_runner.py
  • tests/test_seed_panel_commitment.py
  • tests/test_sota_v3_preregistration.py
  • tests/test_sota_v3_route_catalog.py

Comment thread config/sota_v3_pricing_snapshot.json
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