Skip to content

Hotfix: restrict 1st gen. biofuels from 2030 on - #1890

Merged
merfort merged 2 commits into
remindmodel:developfrom
merfort:dev__fix_1stgen_bio
Nov 21, 2024
Merged

Hotfix: restrict 1st gen. biofuels from 2030 on#1890
merfort merged 2 commits into
remindmodel:developfrom
merfort:dev__fix_1stgen_bio

Conversation

@merfort

@merfort merfort commented Nov 21, 2024

Copy link
Copy Markdown
Contributor

Purpose of this PR

This PR resets the bounds on 1st generation biofuels (that are exogenously prescribed and harmonized with MAgPIE) such that they are correctly applied already from 2030 on instead of only from 2045 on. This solves the issue of excessive 1st generation biofuel production in between 2030 and 2045.
This PR is only a hotfix, as it comes with the caveat that Baseline runs (and other runs that do not allow for early retirement of technologies) will be infeasible, since the bounds themselves are outdated and partially too low to reflect historic capacities.

Apart from that there is the problem (has been there before, though) that some regions phase out some capacities of pebioil and pebios technologies even in historic time steps (i.e. before 2020, see here).

In a follow-up process, these bounds need to be adjusted such that they a) do not violate historic capacities, b) are in line with current policies (e.g. limits set by the EU) and c) are better in line with updated data on 1st gen. biofuel sustainability constraints (which is the main motivation for limiting 1st gen. biofuels).
Once that is done, I would suggest to constrain REMIND such that early retirement in historic time steps is forbidden.

Type of change

(Make sure to delete from the Type-of-change list the items not relevant to your PR)

  • Bug fix
  • Refactoring
  • New feature
  • Minor change (default scenarios show only small differences)
  • Fundamental change
  • This change requires a documentation update

Checklist:

  • My code follows the coding etiquette
  • I performed a self-review of my own code
  • I explained my changes within the PR, particularly in hard-to-understand areas
  • I checked that the in-code documentation is up-to-date
  • I adjusted the reporting in remind2 where it was needed (NA)
  • I adjusted forbiddenColumnNames in readCheckScenarioConfig.R in case the PR leads to deprecated switches (NA)
  • All automated model tests pass (FAIL 0 in the output of make test)
  • The changelog CHANGELOG.md has been updated correctly

Further information (optional):

  • Test runs are here:
    /p/tmp/merfort/REMIND_bugfix_1stgen/remind
    This fix has quite some impacts on the model results in runs with a tight carbon budget.

PkBudg500:
image
Red: original REMIND version, bound only applied in 2045
Green: new, bound applied from 2030 on
Blue: new, bound applied from 2030on + phase-out afterwards (cm_1stgen_phaseout <- 1)

PkBudg650:
image
Red: original REMIND version, bound only applied in 2045
Green: new, bound applied from 2030 on
Blue: new, bound applied from 2030on + phase-out afterwards (cm_1stgen_phaseout <- 1)

For a more detailed discussion on the changes, please refer to the respective issue.

@robertpietzcker robertpietzcker left a comment

Copy link
Copy Markdown
Contributor

Choose a reason for hiding this comment

The reason will be displayed to describe this comment to others. Learn more.

thanks!

@merfort
merfort merged commit 3ed874c into remindmodel:develop Nov 21, 2024
@merfort
merfort deleted the dev__fix_1stgen_bio branch November 21, 2024 13:00
Sign up for free to join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment

Labels

None yet

Projects

None yet

Development

Successfully merging this pull request may close these issues.

2 participants