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Introduce 2030 upper bounds for electrolysis and increase its adjustement costs to slow down near-term growth - #2126

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fschreyer merged 6 commits into
remindmodel:developfrom
fschreyer:hydrogen
Jun 17, 2025
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Introduce 2030 upper bounds for electrolysis and increase its adjustement costs to slow down near-term growth#2126
fschreyer merged 6 commits into
remindmodel:developfrom
fschreyer:hydrogen

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@fschreyer

@fschreyer fschreyer commented Jun 16, 2025

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Purpose of this PR

To address

https://github.com/remindmodel/development_issues/issues/596

  • added global bound of 100 GW(el) electrolysis in 2030 broken down to regions by GDP
  • doubled adjustment cost parameter and halved seed value for electrolysis to make near-term growth more expensive

Also added some more comments and structure to adjustment cost parameter setting.

Type of change

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Parts concerned

  • ☑️ GAMS Code
  • ◻️ R-scripts
  • ☑️ Documentation (GAMS incode documentation, comments, tutorials)
  • ◻️ Input data / CES parameters
  • ◻️ Tests, CI/CD (continuous integration/deployment)
  • ◻️ Configuration (switches in main.gms, default.cfg, and scenario_config*.csv files)
  • ◻️ Other (please give a description)

Impact

  • ◻️ Bug fix
  • ◻️ Refactoring
  • ◻️ New feature
  • ◻️ Change of parameter values or input data (including CES parameters)
  • ☑️ Minor change (default scenarios show only small differences)
  • ◻️ Fundamental change of results of default scenarios

Checklist

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  • I executed the automated model tests (make test) after my final commit and all tests pass (FAIL 0)
  • I adjusted the reporting in remind2 if and where it was needed
  • I adjusted the madrat packages (mrremind and other packages involved) for input data generation if and where it was needed
  • My code follows the coding etiquette
  • I explained my changes within the PR, particularly in hard-to-understand areas
  • I checked that the in-code documentation is up-to-date
  • I adjusted forbiddenColumnNames in readCheckScenarioConfig.R in case the PR leads to deprecated switches
  • I updated the CHANGELOG.md correctly (added, changed, fixed, removed, input data/calibration)

Further information (optional)

  • Runs with these changes are here:
    /p/tmp/schreyer/Modeling/remind/Current/output/SSP1-PkBudg650-slowH2_2_2025-06-16_15.57.29 (VLLO scenario)
  • Comparison of results (what changes by this PR?):

@robertpietzcker

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Looks good, thanks!

what GW value results in 2030 in the SSP1-650? (assuming that not all regions will go to their maximum)

@lecfab

lecfab commented Jun 16, 2025

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Let us know if you have a cs2 for VLLO: it seems for scenarioMIP was already below that bound right? not sure what impact the new adjustment params will have on that.
image /p/projects/piam/scenariomip/main_v6p7/remind/output/C_SMIPv06-VLLO-SSP1-PkPrice500-def-rem-5/REMIND_generic_C_SMIPv06-VLLO-SSP1-PkPrice500-def-rem-5.mif

Not urgent:
Now that so many technologies have specific adj seeds and factors, should we put them in a generisdata file? (maybe together with flexibility that @robertpietzcker preferred not to into datatech)
Should we find a way to make them more systematic / interpretable?

@fschreyer
fschreyer marked this pull request as ready for review June 17, 2025 14:00
@fschreyer
fschreyer merged commit ece52a2 into remindmodel:develop Jun 17, 2025
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3 participants