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⚛️ Flux Time Series Prediction in Tokamak Reactors

Python 3.13 UV

Welcome to the Fusion Time Series playground — example code and notebooks for experimenting with flux time-series forecasting models and surrounding tooling.

🧰 Installation

See the Installation Guide for detailed setup instructions.

📚 Documentation

docs/
├── methods/
│   ├── BilinearLoRA.md
│   ├── OSSBilinearLoRA.md
│   └── RSSBilinearLoRA.md
├── poster/
├── report/
│   └── 0126-progress-report.md
├── results/
│   ├── finetuning/
│   │   ├── chronos2/
│   │   └── timesfm/
│   └── zeroshot/
└── installation.md

📊 Results

Zero-Shot Results

Base Model ID $\bar{Q}$ (↓) OOD $\bar{Q}$ Inference Time [s]
google/timesfm-2.0-500m 156.17 ± 67.31 98.61 ± 23.55 5.65 ± 5.82e-2
amazon/chronos-bolt-tiny 110.15 ± 14.08 92.89 ± 21.16 0.030 ± 1.08e-3
amazon/chronos2 107.09 ± 15.74 87.47 ± 22.08 0.073 ± 1.72e-3
google/timesfm-2.5-200m 104.23 ± 14.87 87.20 ± 25.05 0.231 ± 7.23e-3
NX-AI/TiRex 79.49 ± 14.38 64.03 ± 19.53 1.95 ± 1.63e-2

Zero-shot performance across five time-series foundation models.

Finetuning Results

Base Model Finetuning Type ID $\bar{Q}$ (↓) OOD $\bar{Q}$ Trainable Params (%) Trainable Params (#Mio.) Inference Time [s]
google/timesfm-2.0-500m Full Finetuning* 20.67 ± 7.43 12.01 ± 3.21 100.0 498.8 0.091 ± 1.65e-3
google/timesfm-2.0-500m BilinearLoRA 20.15 ± 7.79 7.11 ± 1.32 1.22 6.2 0.245 ± 2.17e-3
google/timesfm-2.0-500m OSSBilinearLoRA 19.24 ± 7.87 7.74 ± 2.08 28.91 202.8 0.291 ± 3.85e-3
GyroSwin-1B [1] - 18.35 ± 1.56 26.43 ± 9.49 100.0 1000.0 2.849**
google/timesfm-2.0-500m RSSBilinearLoRA 18.03 ± 6.81 7.86 ± 2.20 1.39 7.0 0.304 ± 2.50e-3
google/timesfm-2.0-500m LoRA* 17.76 ± 8.05 16.07 ± 4.18 1.02 5.1 0.081 ± 1.51e-3
amazon/chronos2 LoRA* 16.73 ± 6.67 5.08 ± 1.22 1.0 1.2 0.067 ± 2.95e-2
amazon/chronos2 RSSBilinearLoRA 16.33 ± 5.39 5.65 ± 2.03 1.86 2.3 0.170 ± 6.26e-3
amazon/chronos2 OSSBilinearLoRA 16.11 ± 6.18 3.19 ± 0.73 25.0 39.8 0.159 ± 4.59e-3
amazon/chronos2 Full Finetuning* 15.50 ± 4.47 4.76 ± 0.89 100.0 119.5 0.050 ± 7.07e-4
amazon/chronos2 BilinearLoRA 13.83 ± 4.18 4.86 ± 0.68 1.54 1.9 0.136 ± 8.64e-4
  • Comparison of finetuned performance across base models and GyroSwin
  • For average heat flux $\bar{Q}$ we report RMSE of time-averaged predictions after an autoregressive rollout
  • Time-series models are trained and benchmarked on a NVIDIA RTX 4070 16GB Ti Super
  • (*) No operating parameter conditioning
  • (**) To compare the inference speed to GyroSwin we use the reported 15.4ms forward pass inference speed and multiply by the number of rollout steps (185). The large speed gap can be mainly attributed to the fact that time-series models forecast 64 timesteps in one forward-pass. GyroSwin was benchmarked on a NVIDIA H100 80GB HBM3.

References

@misc{paischer2025gyroswin5dsurrogatesgyrokinetic,
      title={GyroSwin: 5D Surrogates for Gyrokinetic Plasma Turbulence Simulations},
      author={Fabian Paischer and Gianluca Galletti and William Hornsby and Paul Setinek and Lorenzo Zanisi and Naomi Carey and Stanislas Pamela and Johannes Brandstetter},
      year={2025},
      eprint={2510.07314},
      archivePrefix={arXiv},
      primaryClass={physics.plasm-ph},
      url={https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.07314},
}

Ruff check

repos:

rev: v0.15.0

hooks:

- id: ruff-check

args: ["--fix"]

- id: ruff-format

rev: 0.9.0

hooks:

- id: nbstripout

args:

["--extra-keys=metadata.celltoolbar cell.metadata.heading_collapsed"]

rev: v6.0.0

hooks:

- id: end-of-file-fixer

- id: trailing-whitespace

About

Time series prediction of heat flux time traces in Tokamak reactors.

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