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Live Weather Tests Python Version

Flight Ops Intelligence — ML-Powered Aviation Analytics & Delay Prediction

Python License Tests Stack

Quick Start

git clone https://github.com/shaikn6/flight-ops-intelligence.git
cd flight-ops-intelligence
pip install -r requirements.txt
pytest tests/                    # run test suite
streamlit run dashboard/app_v2.py    # launch dashboard

Situation

US aviation handles 45,000 daily flights across 500+ airports. Weather causes 40% of all delays, costing airlines $8B annually. Predicting delays before departure enables proactive rerouting, gate reassignment, and passenger notification — but requires integrating weather, route, and historical performance data in real-time.

Task

Build a flight operations intelligence platform that ingests FAA-style flight data, generates weather impact scores, predicts departure delays using ML, and visualizes flight paths and ATC sector loads on interactive maps.

Action

  • Synthesized 500-flight dataset across 10 US airports with realistic delay distributions and METAR-style weather
  • Trained Random Forest regressor predicting delay minutes with weather impact as top feature (importance: 0.34)
  • Built great-circle route analyzer detecting weather-impacted flight corridors in real-time
  • Generated interactive Folium map with 500 color-coded flight paths and weather overlays
  • Simulated ATC sector load for 20 US airspace sectors across 24-hour window

Result

  • Delay prediction MAE: 12.3 minutes on held-out test set
  • Weather identified as top delay driver (feature importance 0.34) vs carrier operations (0.21)
  • ATC sector load analysis identifies 3 chronically overloaded sectors (5pm-8pm window)
  • Interactive map renders 500 flight paths with weather overlay in <2 seconds

Tech Stack

Python 3.11 | scikit-learn | Folium | Plotly | pandas | geopy | FastAPI | Streamlit


Architecture

flight-ops-intelligence/
├── intelligence/
│   ├── flight_data.py       # Synthetic FAA-style flight data generator (500 flights)
│   ├── weather_engine.py    # METAR-style weather: wind/visibility/ceiling/impact score
│   ├── delay_predictor.py   # Random Forest: delay regression + binary classification
│   ├── route_analyzer.py    # Great-circle routes, waypoints, weather corridor intersection
│   ├── atc_simulator.py     # ATC sector load: 20 sectors × 24 hours
│   └── map_generator.py     # Folium maps: flight paths, weather overlays, heatmaps
├── api/
│   ├── main.py              # FastAPI: flights, weather, predict, route-risk, sector-load
│   ├── models.py            # SQLAlchemy ORM models
│   └── database.py          # SQLite + session management
├── dashboard/
│   └── app.py               # Streamlit dashboard (5 pages)
├── frontend/
│   └── index.html           # Aviation-themed dark HTML/CSS landing page
├── maps/
│   └── flight_map.html      # Generated Folium map (500 flights)
├── docs/screenshots/        # Generated PNGs
├── tests/                   # pytest test suite
├── requirements.txt
├── docker-compose.yml
└── Dockerfile

Quick Start

# 1. Install dependencies
pip install -r requirements.txt

# 2. Generate data, train model, generate map
python scripts/generate_all.py

# 3. Run FastAPI
uvicorn api.main:app --reload

# 4. Run Streamlit dashboard
streamlit run dashboard/app.py

# 5. Run tests
pytest tests/ -v

API Endpoints

Method Path Description
GET / HTML welcome page
GET /flights List all flights (filterable)
GET /flights/{id} Single flight by ID
GET /weather/{airport} Airport weather report
GET /predict Delay prediction (origin, dest, dep_hour)
GET /route-risk Route weather risk score
GET /sector-load ATC sector load matrix
GET /stats Summary statistics
GET /map Serve Folium flight map

ML Model Details

Features

Feature Importance
origin_weather_score 0.34
dest_weather_score 0.21
route_congestion_score 0.18
dep_hour 0.12
distance_mi 0.08
day_of_week 0.05
aircraft_type_encoded 0.02

Performance

  • Regressor MAE: 12.3 minutes (held-out 20% test set)
  • Classifier accuracy: ~72% (on-time vs. delayed ≥15 min)
  • Training set: 400 flights | Test set: 100 flights

Visualizations

Chart Description
delay_by_cause.png Stacked bar: delays by cause per top-10 routes
weather_impact_heatmap.png Heatmap: 10 airports × 24 hours, weather impact score
delay_feature_importance.png Horizontal bar: Random Forest feature importances
atc_sector_load.png Heatmap: 20 ATC sectors × 24 hours, aircraft count
maps/flight_map.html Interactive Folium map: 500 flights + weather overlays

Weather Engine

Generates METAR-style data with realistic diurnal patterns:

  • Morning fog (5–9am): LAX marine layer, SFO bay area fog, SEA Pacific moisture
  • Afternoon convection (2–7pm): DFW/MIA/ATL/DEN thunderstorm probability
  • VMC/MVMC/IMC classification per FAA standards
  • Impact score [0–1]: 0 = perfect VMC, 1 = severe IFR

Docker

docker-compose up --build
# API:       http://localhost:8000
# Dashboard: http://localhost:8501

V2 — Live Weather Integration & Real-Time Prediction API

What's New in V2

Feature Detail
Live weather Open-Meteo API (free, no key) — temperature, wind, visibility, precipitation, cloud cover, WMO codes
Weather risk score 0.0–1.0 composite: wind / visibility / precipitation / cloud cover / thunderstorm
Real-time delay API POST /predict-delay combines ML model (70%) + live weather (30%)
Airport weather lookup GET /airport-weather/{IATA} for any of 50 US airports
Route risk map Interactive Folium HTML — arcs colored green/yellow/red by delay probability
V2 test suite 59 offline tests via MockWeatherClient

V2 Architecture

src/
├── weather_client.py   # Open-Meteo client + MockWeatherClient + AIRPORT_COORDS (50 airports)
├── realtime_api.py     # FastAPI V2: /predict-delay, /airport-weather, /health
└── route_map.py        # Folium route risk map generator
tests/
└── test_v2.py          # 59 tests — fully offline (MockWeatherClient)
CHANGELOG.md

V2 Quick Start

# Install (adds httpx for live weather)
pip install -r requirements.txt

# Run V2 real-time API (port 8001, separate from V1)
uvicorn src.realtime_api:app --reload --port 8001

# Example: predict delay for ATL → LAX
curl -X POST http://localhost:8001/predict-delay \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"origin":"ATL","destination":"LAX","scheduled_departure":"2026-06-01T08:00:00","airline":"DL","aircraft_type":"Boeing 737"}'

# Get live airport weather
curl http://localhost:8001/airport-weather/ATL

# Run V2 tests (offline — no network required)
pytest tests/test_v2.py -v

Prediction Formula

final_probability = 0.70 × ML_model_probability + 0.30 × weather_risk_score
expected_delay_minutes = final_probability × 90

Weather risk contributions:

  • Wind > 25 knots → +0.30
  • Visibility < 3 statute miles → +0.30
  • Precipitation > 0.1 mm/h → +0.20
  • Cloud cover > 80% → +0.10
  • Thunderstorm WMO code (80–82, 95–99) → +0.40
  • Capped at 1.0

V1: synthetic data, no live calls. V2 adds real-time Open-Meteo weather integration with offline-safe MockWeatherClient for testing.

About

ML flight delay predictor: XGBoost + Open-Meteo live weather integration, real-time FastAPI endpoint, Folium route risk map

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