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feat: add short-interest conviction context - #1498

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stranske merged 5 commits into
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codex/issue-1470-short-interest-conviction
Jul 31, 2026
Merged

feat: add short-interest conviction context#1498
stranske merged 5 commits into
mainfrom
codex/issue-1470-short-interest-conviction

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@stranske

@stranske stranske commented Jul 31, 2026

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Closes #1470

Summary

  • ingest finite FINRA-style short-interest records for issuers managers currently hold
  • expose the latest short-interest percentage as optional conviction context without changing scoring
  • add SQLite/Postgres schema parity, idempotent upserts, and graceful feed-failure coverage

Scope boundary

Validation

  • pytest -q tests/test_short_interest_flow.py tests/test_signals_api.py tests/test_schema.py
  • ruff check adapters/short_interest.py etl/short_interest_flow.py api/signals.py tests/test_short_interest_flow.py tests/test_signals_api.py alembic/versions/018_short_interest.py
  • black --check adapters/short_interest.py etl/short_interest_flow.py api/signals.py tests/test_short_interest_flow.py tests/test_signals_api.py alembic/versions/018_short_interest.py
  • python scripts/check_dialect_portability.py
  • alembic heads -> 018 (head)

Summary by CodeRabbit

  • New Features

    • Added short-interest data ingestion from FINRA and exchange sources.
    • Conviction score results now include short-interest percentage, report date, and source when available.
    • Added storage and lookup for historical short-interest metrics.
    • Added configurable short-interest data endpoint settings.
  • Bug Fixes

    • Short-interest fetch failures can be handled gracefully without interrupting conviction results.
  • Tests

    • Added coverage for ingestion, annotations, fetch failures, and API responses.

@stranske stranske added agent:codex autofix Triggers autofix on PR agents:keepalive Enables keepalive automation for PR agent:retry Add to trigger agent retry after rate limit or pause labels Jul 31, 2026
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⚙️ Run configuration

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Review profile: ASSERTIVE

Plan: Pro

Run ID: edd95767-6620-4e55-800c-29f090b26631

📥 Commits

Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between 996080d and ed08640.

📒 Files selected for processing (6)
  • .gitignore
  • adapters/short_interest.py
  • alembic/versions/018_short_interest.py
  • etl/short_interest_flow.py
  • tests/test_schema.py
  • tests/test_short_interest_flow.py
📝 Walkthrough

Walkthrough

This PR adds a short-interest data feed to the conviction scoring system. It includes an adapter module to fetch and normalize FINRA/exchange short-interest data, a short_interest database table with schema and Alembic migration, an ETL pipeline for ingestion and annotation lookup, and integration into the conviction API response with new optional fields.

Changes

Short-interest feed and annotation

Layer / File(s) Summary
Table schema and migration
schema.sql, alembic/versions/018_short_interest.py
Adds the short_interest table with ticker, CUSIP, short-interest metrics, report date, source, uniqueness constraint on (ticker, report_date, source), and indexes on (ticker, report_date DESC) and (cusip, report_date DESC).
Adapter: fetch, normalize, parse
adapters/short_interest.py, .env.example
Adds numeric and date parsing helpers, row normalization with percentage derivation from short interest and float shares, JSON and CSV payload decoding, an HTTP fetcher with configurable endpoint and timeout, an injectable fetcher contract, and error wrapping in ShortInterestFetchError. Environment configuration adds FINRA_SHORT_INTEREST_URL.
ETL: table creation, upsert, ingestion, annotation
etl/short_interest_flow.py, tests/test_short_interest_flow.py
Adds ensure_short_interest_table, upsert_short_interest with dialect-aware SQL for SQLite and PostgreSQL, ingest_short_interest_for_issuers and ingest_short_interest_for_manager with non-fatal error handling, and short_interest_annotation to query the latest record by ticker or CUSIP. Tests validate successful ingestion, failure handling that preserves conviction rows, and explicit error propagation when graceful handling is disabled.
Conviction API annotation
api/signals.py, tests/test_signals_api.py
Adds optional short_interest_pct, short_interest_report_date, short_interest_source fields to ConvictionScoreResponse. Conviction endpoint independently detects and loads the short-interest annotation helper alongside the insider-flow helper. Each conviction result attaches annotation data per ticker and CUSIP, and the response exposes the annotation fields. Test fixture adds resolved_ticker values to holdings, and a new test verifies short-interest field exposure.

Estimated code review effort: 3 (Moderate) | ~25 minutes

Sequence Diagram(s)

sequenceDiagram
  participant Client
  participant SignalsAPI
  participant ShortInterestFlow
  participant Database
  Client->>SignalsAPI: request conviction scores
  SignalsAPI->>ShortInterestFlow: short_interest_annotation(ticker, cusip)
  ShortInterestFlow->>Database: query short_interest table
  Database-->>ShortInterestFlow: latest record or none
  ShortInterestFlow-->>SignalsAPI: annotation dict or null
  SignalsAPI-->>Client: ConvictionScoreResponse with short_interest fields
Loading
sequenceDiagram
  participant Scheduler
  participant IngestFlow
  participant ShortInterestAdapter
  participant FINRAEndpoint
  participant Database
  Scheduler->>IngestFlow: ingest_short_interest_for_issuers(issuers)
  IngestFlow->>ShortInterestAdapter: fetch_short_interest(ticker)
  ShortInterestAdapter->>FINRAEndpoint: HTTP GET short-interest data
  FINRAEndpoint-->>ShortInterestAdapter: JSON/CSV payload
  ShortInterestAdapter-->>IngestFlow: normalized rows
  IngestFlow->>Database: upsert_short_interest(rows)
  Database-->>IngestFlow: inserted count
Loading

Possibly related PRs

  • stranske/Manager-Database#1410: This PR implements the short-interest ingestion and annotation feature designed in that PR, including the database schema, adapter module, and conviction API integration.
🚥 Pre-merge checks | ✅ 3 | ❌ 2

❌ Failed checks (2 warnings)

Check name Status Explanation Resolution
Out of Scope Changes check ⚠️ Warning The PR includes langsmith-fleet-worker-attempt.json, an execution record unrelated to short-interest ingestion or conviction annotations. Remove langsmith-fleet-worker-attempt.json from the pull request unless the linked issue explicitly requires this execution record.
Docstring Coverage ⚠️ Warning Docstring coverage is 0.00% which is insufficient. The required threshold is 80.00%. Write docstrings for the functions missing them to satisfy the coverage threshold.
✅ Passed checks (3 passed)
Check name Status Explanation
Description Check ✅ Passed Check skipped - CodeRabbit’s high-level summary is enabled.
Title check ✅ Passed The title clearly describes the primary change: adding short-interest context to conviction results.
Linked Issues check ✅ Passed The PR implements Phase 1 short-interest ingestion, storage, annotation, graceful failures, and tests without changing conviction scores or starting options work [#1470].
✨ Finishing Touches
🧪 Generate unit tests (beta)
  • Create PR with unit tests
  • Commit unit tests in branch codex/issue-1470-short-interest-conviction

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stranske temporarily deployed to agent-standard July 31, 2026 14:11 — with GitHub Actions Inactive
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Fixed the concrete Gate failure in a9b023d by documenting FINRA_SHORT_INTEREST_URL in .env.example. Validation: 26 focused tests passed (env coverage, short-interest flow, signals API, schema); focused Ruff and git diff --check passed. Fresh CI is now required; no review threads were open.

Base automatically changed from codex/issue-1469-peer-similarity-cosine-crowding to main July 31, 2026 14:39
@stranske
stranske force-pushed the codex/issue-1470-short-interest-conviction branch from a9b023d to e5e36eb Compare July 31, 2026 14:45
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Closer lane: stack unwound after #1497 merged.

What changed

  • feat: add cosine similarity crowding alerts #1497 was squash-merged into main at 872569b36adc91f238325c6672172264bff69ad6 (2026-07-31T14:39:12Z) and carries verify:compare.
  • This PR's base was retargeted from codex/issue-1469-peer-similarity-cosine-crowding to main, which also re-enables CodeRabbit review (it had been skipped with "reviews are disabled for this base branch").
  • The branch was rebased with git rebase --onto origin/main 4e574c4, dropping feat: add cosine similarity crowding alerts #1497's now-merged commits and replaying only this PR's own two commits (f756764 short-interest conviction context, e5e36eb .env.example endpoint override) on top of 872569b. No conflicts. Pushed as e5e36eb with --force-with-lease.
  • The diff against main is now exactly this issue's scope: 8 files, +506/-11 (adapters/short_interest.py, etl/short_interest_flow.py, api/signals.py, alembic/versions/018_short_interest.py, schema.sql, .env.example, plus the two test modules).

Validation on the rebased head

  • pytest -o addopts= tests/test_short_interest_flow.py tests/test_signals_api.py tests/test_schema.py tests/test_env_example_coverage.py = 26 passed.
  • Cross-feature check against feat: add cosine similarity crowding alerts #1497's merged surface: pytest -o addopts= tests/test_alert_engine.py tests/test_manager_similarity_flow.py tests/test_conviction_flow.py tests/test_crowded_contrarian.py = 37 passed.
  • ruff check clean; black --check clean (6 files unchanged); scripts/check_dialect_portability.py exit 0; git diff --check clean.
  • Migration chain is single-headed after the rebase: ScriptDirectory.get_heads() = ['018'], with 018.down_revision == '017' and merged 017.down_revision == '016'.

Pre-existing main defect found while validating (not from this PR, no action taken here)
tests/test_crowded_contrarian.py::test_conviction_flow_deployment_allows_env_overrides reloads etl.conviction_flow with CONVICTION_FLOW_CRON / CONVICTION_FLOW_TIMEZONE set and does not restore the module, so a later same-session read of the module-level deployment sees the override. Running tests/test_crowded_contrarian.py before tests/test_conviction_flow.py makes test_conviction_deployment_nightly_utc_schedule fail with assert '15 3 * * *' == '0 2 * * *'. CI is green only because pytest's alphabetical file order happens to collect test_conviction_flow.py first. Reproduced on this branch and caused by files already on main; it is out of scope for this PR and is being tracked separately.

Fresh CI and CodeRabbit review are now running against main as base; no wait was performed in this round.

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Actionable comments posted: 8

🤖 Prompt for all review comments with AI agents
Verify each finding against current code. Fix only still-valid issues, skip the
rest with a brief reason, keep changes minimal, and validate.

Inline comments:
In `@adapters/short_interest.py`:
- Around line 40-51: Validate the normalized date produced by _date_value before
persistence, and have normalize_short_interest_row reject rows when report_date
is missing or not a real calendar date such as 2026-99-99. Add tests covering
both missing and invalid report_date inputs, while preserving valid date
normalization.
- Line 123: Update the URL selection in the short-interest adapter around the
environment lookup to fall back to DEFAULT_FINRA_SHORT_INTEREST_URL when
FINRA_SHORT_INTEREST_URL is unset or empty. Retain the empty documented override
in .env.example at line 76; it requires no direct change because the adapter
fallback corrects its behavior.
- Around line 63-72: Update the field selection in the short-interest
normalization flow around _finite_float so each alias chain selects the first
present value rather than the first truthy value, preserving numeric zero for
short_interest and short_interest_pct (and the related fields). Add a test
covering short_interest=0 and short_interest_pct=0 that verifies the row is
retained and normalized correctly.

In `@alembic/versions/018_short_interest.py`:
- Line 20: The metric_id column definition uses sa.BigInteger() which causes
SQLite to store NULL for auto-generated values instead of proper identifiers.
Update the column type for metric_id from sa.BigInteger() to
sa.BigInteger().with_variant(sa.Integer(), "sqlite") to ensure SQLite uses the
appropriate INTEGER type for auto-increment generation while maintaining
compatibility with other database backends.

In `@etl/short_interest_flow.py`:
- Around line 109-120: Restrict the try/except in the short-interest processing
flow to only the fetch_short_interest(ticker, fetcher=fetcher) call. Keep fetch
failures appended to errors and handled by raise_on_fetch_error, but move row
normalization and upsert_short_interest(conn, rows) outside the guarded block so
database or persistence errors propagate unchanged.
- Around line 149-157: The current query uses OR to join ticker and cusip
conditions, which can return a newer record for a different issuer when both
identifiers are present. Replace the logic that appends both conditions to the
clauses list with a priority-based approach where cusip takes precedence: when
cusip is available, add only the cusip clause to clauses and skip the ticker
clause; when cusip is not available but ticker exists, add only the ticker
clause. This ensures the query uses CUSIP as the primary identifier and falls
back to ticker only when CUSIP is absent. Additionally, add a regression test
that verifies the query returns the correct short-interest data when both ticker
and cusip rows exist with different dates or values.
- Line 143: Remove the ensure_short_interest_table(conn) call from
short_interest_annotation so the annotation read path performs no schema
initialization or commit. Leave schema setup to the migration or ingestion
initialization flow, while preserving the existing annotation logic.

In `@tests/test_short_interest_flow.py`:
- Around line 44-52: Add an idempotent-upsert regression test alongside
test_ingest_stubbed_short_interest_and_annotation that ingests the same ticker,
report date, and source twice with updated values, then verifies the database
retains exactly one row containing the latest values. Reuse the existing
short_interest_flow ingestion and annotation helpers and preserve the current
successful single-ingest assertions.
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ℹ️ Review info
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Review profile: ASSERTIVE

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Run ID: 6ef0de1d-16c5-43e4-8e99-7a828a87e77d

📥 Commits

Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between 872569b and e5e36eb.

📒 Files selected for processing (8)
  • .env.example
  • adapters/short_interest.py
  • alembic/versions/018_short_interest.py
  • api/signals.py
  • etl/short_interest_flow.py
  • schema.sql
  • tests/test_short_interest_flow.py
  • tests/test_signals_api.py

Comment thread adapters/short_interest.py Outdated
Comment thread adapters/short_interest.py Outdated
Comment thread adapters/short_interest.py Outdated
Comment thread alembic/versions/018_short_interest.py Outdated
Comment thread etl/short_interest_flow.py
Comment thread etl/short_interest_flow.py Outdated
Comment thread etl/short_interest_flow.py Outdated
Comment thread tests/test_short_interest_flow.py
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Runner dispatch state for codex on PR #1498. Do not edit.

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🤖 Keepalive Loop Status

PR #1498 | Agent: Codex | Iteration 0/12

Current State

Metric Value
Iteration progress [----------] 0/12
Action run (agent-run-failed)
Agent status ❌ AGENT FAILED
Gate unknown
Tasks 0/5 complete
Timeout 45 min (default)
Timeout usage 6m elapsed (14%, 39m remaining)
Keepalive ✅ enabled
Autofix ❌ disabled

Last Codex Run

Result Value
Status ❌ AGENT FAILED
Reason agent-run-failed
Exit code unknown
Failures 2/3 before pause

To retry immediately:

  • Add the agent:retry label to this PR

Or wait for the next successful Gate run to automatically retry.

🔍 Failure Classification

| Error type | infrastructure |
| Error category | transient |
| Suggested recovery | Capture logs and context; retry once and escalate if the issue persists. |

⚠️ Failure Tracking

| Consecutive failures | 2/3 |
| Reason | agent-run-failed |

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Keepalive Work Log (click to expand)
# Time (UTC) Agent Action Result Files Tasks Progress Commit Gate
0 2026-07-31 15:07:01 Codex run (agent-run-failed) failure 31 file(s) 0 0/5 996080d success
0 2026-07-31 15:10:29 Codex run (agent-run-failed) failure 30 file(s) 0 0/5

stranske added 2 commits July 31, 2026 10:07
Rejects rows without a real calendar report_date, preserves zero short-interest values, treats a blank FINRA_SHORT_INTEREST_URL as unset, gives metric_id a SQLite INTEGER variant, keeps DB write errors out of the fetch-failure path, removes DDL from the annotation read path, and prefers CUSIP over a reassigned ticker.
The runner writes langsmith-fleet-worker-attempt.json to the repo root, so keepalive committed it into this PR (the same artifact was removed from #1497). .gitignore only covered artifacts/langsmith/.
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Closer lane: all 8 CodeRabbit findings addressed in ed08640; every thread answered and resolved.

Finding Change
adapters/short_interest.py — reject rows without a valid report_date normalize_short_interest_row resolves the date first and returns None when absent; _date_value now validates through date.fromisoformat, so 2026-99-99 is rejected before it can reach the NOT NULL column.
adapters/short_interest.pyor chains drop zero values New _first_present helper selects the first present key (only None/"" count as absent) for short interest, float shares, percentage, and the date aliases.
adapters/short_interest.py — blank FINRA_SHORT_INTEREST_URL New short_interest_url() treats an empty or whitespace override as unset and falls back to DEFAULT_FINRA_SHORT_INTEREST_URL; .env.example keeps the documented key.
alembic/versions/018 — SQLite BIGINT PRIMARY KEY stores NULL metric_id uses sa.BigInteger().with_variant(sa.Integer(), "sqlite"), matching the sqlite_autoincrement_id pattern from migration 015.
etl/short_interest_flow.py — DB write errors reported as feed failures The try now wraps only fetch_short_interest; CUSIP backfill and upsert_short_interest run outside it, so persistence errors propagate.
etl/short_interest_flow.py — DDL in the annotation read path ensure_short_interest_table removed from short_interest_annotation; api/signals.py:313 already gates on table_exists, and ingestion still initializes the schema.
etl/short_interest_flow.pyOR can annotate another issuer Ordered lookup: CUSIP first, ticker only as fallback.
tests/test_short_interest_flow.py — no idempotent-upsert test Added a double-ingest regression asserting one row with the later values.

Validation: pytest -o addopts= tests/test_short_interest_flow.py tests/test_schema.py tests/test_signals_api.py tests/test_env_example_coverage.py tests/test_conviction_flow.py = 43 passed. ruff check clean, black clean, scripts/check_dialect_portability.py exit 0, git diff --check clean. Deliberate-break spot check on the subtlest fix: reversing the CUSIP/ticker lookup order fails test_annotation_prefers_cusip_over_a_reassigned_ticker with assert 90.0 == 25.0; reverted and re-run green.

Also removed: keepalive had committed the generated langsmith-fleet-worker-attempt.json telemetry file to this PR in 996080d (the same artifact CodeRabbit flagged on #1497). It is deleted here and .gitignore now covers langsmith-fleet-*.json at the repo root, since it only listed artifacts/langsmith/. The durable fix belongs upstream in Workflows — the runner writes this telemetry into the repo working tree, so every keepalive PR picks it up.

Note for the next pass: CodeRabbit reported "Review limit reached … next review available in 40 minutes" plus an organization usage spending cap at 14:51Z, so this push may not get an automatic incremental review; trigger @coderabbitai review once the window reopens.

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@stranske
stranske merged commit 4dc7dad into main Jul 31, 2026
27 checks passed
@stranske
stranske deleted the codex/issue-1470-short-interest-conviction branch July 31, 2026 15:23
@stranske stranske added the verify:compare Runs verifier comparison mode after merge label Jul 31, 2026
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Provider Comparison Report

Provider Summary

Provider Model Verdict Confidence Summary
openai gpt-5.4 PASS 84% The merged changes appear to satisfy the stated Phase 1 acceptance criteria for short-interest ingestion and annotation. The PR adds a dedicated short-interest adapter and ETL flow, introduces Alem...
anthropic claude-opus-4-6 PASS 92% The PR correctly implements Phase 1 of issue #1470: short-interest ingestion, dialect-aware schema parity (SQLite/Postgres), idempotent upserts, conviction annotation without scoring changes, and c...
📋 Full Provider Details (click to expand)

openai

  • Model: gpt-5.4
  • Verdict: PASS
  • Confidence: 84%
  • Scores:
    • Correctness: 8.0/10
    • Completeness: 9.0/10
    • Quality: 8.0/10
    • Testing: 8.0/10
    • Risks: 7.0/10
  • Summary: The merged changes appear to satisfy the stated Phase 1 acceptance criteria for short-interest ingestion and annotation. The PR adds a dedicated short-interest adapter and ETL flow, introduces Alembic/schema parity for a new short_interest table, updates api/signals.py to surface latest short-interest percentage as optional context without changing scoring, and adds targeted tests for ingestion, schema, signal annotation, and graceful-failure behavior. Phase 2 options work remains excluded, which matches the requirement. Overall the implementation looks complete, reasonably well-structured, and aligned with the intended temporary short-interest-only scope.
  • Concerns:
    • The full diff is truncated, so some implementation details cannot be exhaustively verified from the prompt alone.
    • The new adapter relies on an external FINRA-style endpoint configured by environment variable; long-term compatibility depends on feed shape stability and availability.

anthropic

  • Model: claude-opus-4-6
  • Verdict: PASS
  • Confidence: 92%
  • Scores:
    • Correctness: 9.0/10
    • Completeness: 9.0/10
    • Quality: 9.0/10
    • Testing: 9.0/10
    • Risks: 8.0/10
  • Summary: The PR correctly implements Phase 1 of issue [Audit] Cross-ref feeds: short-interest + options (de-bias conviction) #1470: short-interest ingestion, dialect-aware schema parity (SQLite/Postgres), idempotent upserts, conviction annotation without scoring changes, and comprehensive test coverage including the deliberate-break pattern. Options metrics are intentionally excluded per acceptance criteria. All key acceptance criteria are met: adapter + ETL + schema + Alembic migration + signal annotation + tests for ingestion, null annotation, and graceful feed-failure handling.
  • Concerns:
    • PR diff was truncated, so complete verification of all function implementations was not possible, though visible code is consistent and well-structured
    • The default FINRA API URL is hardcoded; if the endpoint changes, the adapter would need updating (mitigated by env var override)

Agreement

  • Verdict: PASS (all providers)
  • Correctness: scores within 1 point (avg 8.5/10, range 8.0-9.0)
  • Completeness: scores within 1 point (avg 9.0/10, range 9.0-9.0)
  • Quality: scores within 1 point (avg 8.5/10, range 8.0-9.0)
  • Testing: scores within 1 point (avg 8.5/10, range 8.0-9.0)
  • Risks: scores within 1 point (avg 7.5/10, range 7.0-8.0)

Disagreement

No major disagreements detected.

Unique Insights

  • openai: The full diff is truncated, so some implementation details cannot be exhaustively verified from the prompt alone.; The new adapter relies on an external FINRA-style endpoint configured by environment variable; long-term compatibility depends on feed shape stability and availability.
  • anthropic: PR diff was truncated, so complete verification of all function implementations was not possible, though visible code is consistent and well-structured; The default FINRA API URL is hardcoded; if the endpoint changes, the adapter would need updating (mitigated by env var override)

🔍 LangSmith Traces

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Workflow state fingerprint for Agents Verifier. Do not edit.

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[Audit] Cross-ref feeds: short-interest + options (de-bias conviction)

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