v0.14.2

Golavo v0.14.2 — The final, a leak closed, the tournament looked back on

Golavo 0.14.2 brings the 2026 World Cup final into the app, closes a training-data leak
that the tournament's own exact kickoff times made reachable, and adds a retrospective
that backtests every played match of the tournament. The source rules, the model-input
boundary, and the seal→score loop are unchanged.

Forecasts no longer train on the future

This is the reason to update.

Training rows were selected by calendar date. A date is not a time, so every fixture
on a day looked simultaneous: a result from 20:00 could inform a forecast for a match
that kicked off at 00:30 that morning. The leakage guard compared the same dates, so it
could not see the problem it existed to catch.

• What changes for you: Match Cockpit replays on days with several matches will show
  different probabilities than 0.14.1. That is the fix, not a regression — those replays
  were using information that did not exist yet.
• What does not change: sealed forecasts were never affected. A match played later
  the same day is not complete when a seal is written, so it was already excluded.
  Historical backtests cut on day boundaries and are unchanged.
• Why now: almost every row in the index is a midnight date stand-in, and midnight is
  never later than midnight — so date ordering was accidentally correct until real kickoff
  times arrived. Of the 92 completed matches carrying a true kickoff, 55 were affected,
  and all 55 are 2026 World Cup matches.

The World Cup outlook had a related fault: it treated a semifinal as decided whenever the
snapshot carried a result, without asking whether that match had kicked off at the cutoff
being requested. Asking about an earlier moment could return a later match's winner as
settled fact.

The final is in the app

• Spain v Argentina, 19 July, 19:00 UTC, and the third-place match, France v England,
  18 July, 21:00 UTC — both with exact kickoff times, so the seal window stays open until
  the whistle instead of closing at midnight the night before.
• Both semifinals now carry their results: France 0-2 Spain, England 1-2 Argentina.

A retrospective of the tournament

New in Model Lab → World Cup 2026 retrospective.

It replays every played match of the tournament at that match's own pre-kickoff cutoff —
the same cutoff a seal uses — and ranks them by how surprised the goal model was. Beside
it sits the tournament's evaluation fold, answering a different question with a different
cutoff: did the models have skill at all, judged from outside the tournament.

Every number on the page is a backtest, not a record. Nothing there was called in
advance by anyone; nothing is persisted or scored as a seal. The page says so, because a
backtest sitting alone is easy to mistake for a track record.

• Computed on demand from your active data — a few minutes, with real progress and a
  cancel button — then cached until that data changes.
• Rows whose training data includes a same-day date-proxy kickoff are marked. Their
  ordering within the day cannot be proven, and the page says that rather than implying a
  precision it does not have.

Unchanged

Installers remain OS-unsigned. The deterministic engine, source registry, licence
isolation, and the display-only OpenLigaDB overlay boundary are untouched.