[Global-PGM S3] Summary layers: MAP, P(any violence), HDI90/95 upper + probability colour scale (#233) - #253
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…#233) Sample forecasts now collapse into FOUR map layers per PGM target, each an S==1 frame through the same ADR-020 seam: MAP (headline, hover heatmap at step +1), P(any violence) = share of draws > 0, and the upper 90%/95% HDI bounds. CM keeps MAP only (its line graph already carries HDI). New calculate_exceedance_frame in the statistics tower (NaN policy mirrors the MAP collapse; threshold parameterized, strict >). New colour-mode seam through plot_map → raster/PNG renderers: count layers keep the C-191 nonzero-anchored log scale; the probability layer gets a linear 0-1 scale with quarter ticks and a probability-labelled bar — validated at the plot_map boundary, and unit_interval on the choropleth path fails loud. Measured on the real rusty_bucket global ensemble: report = 45.8 MB, 201 s — 60 step PNGs (4 layers x 5 steps x 3 targets) + 3 hover heatmaps. The motivating number: at step +1, P(any) shows 1,399 at-risk cells where MAP shows 80 (163 cells at >=50%) — the layer surfaces the risk a zero-inflated posterior's mode structurally hides. 396 tests green (12 new: exceedance laws incl. the P(any)-superset-of-MAP coverage law, layer plumbing on a real sample frame, colour-mode dispatch on both renderers). Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…f B) Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This was referenced Jul 21, 2026
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Closes #233. Part of epic #230 (tracker #237).
What
Sample forecasts now collapse into four map layers per PGM target — MAP (headline, hover heatmap at +1), P(any violence) (share of draws > 0), and the upper 90%/95% HDI bounds — each an S==1 frame through the same ADR-020 seam, each rendered at every horizon step. CM keeps MAP only (its line graph already carries HDI).
The motivating number (real rusty_bucket data, sb, step +1)
MAP shows 80 at-risk cells; P(any) shows 1,399 (163 at ≥50% probability). The probability layer surfaces the risk surface a zero-inflated posterior's mode structurally hides — this was the epic's founding question.
Colour correctness
New
color_modeseam throughplot_map→ raster/PNG renderers: count layers keep the C-191 nonzero-anchored log scale; the probability layer gets a linear 0–1 scale (quarter ticks, probability-labelled bar). Unknown modes and unit-interval-on-choropleth fail loud (ADR-008).Measured
Report = 45.8 MB, 201 s — 60 step PNGs (4 layers × 5 steps × 3 targets) + 3 hover heatmaps. Under the ~70 MB ceiling with room for S4's polish.
Changes
statistics/dataset_statistics.py:calculate_exceedance_frame(NaN policy mirrors the MAP collapse; strict >, threshold parameterized); exported.templates/reports/forecast.py: layer list construction + layers × steps render loop; heatmap only for the headline layer at +1.mapping/mapping.py:color_modeonplot_map/raster/PNG;_unit_interval_scale; probability colourbar titles; boundary validation.Ritual
review-diff: one docstring finding, fixed. ship-it: ruff clean, 396 passed (2 skipped, 1 xfailed).
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