forecast accuracy tracking

Forecast Accuracy Tracking — Technical Guide

This document explains how HSEM tracks forecast-vs-actual accuracy for PV production and house load predictions. The system is purely diagnostic — it does not influence planner decisions. It was introduced in issue #373.

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Table of Contents

1. Overview
2. Architecture
3. ForecastTracker — core data structure
4. Error metrics
5. Coordinator integration
6. Sensor attributes
7. Reboot persistence
8. Tests

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Overview

HSEM relies on forecasts: predicted PV production from Solcast and predicted house load from weighted historical averages. These forecasts are never perfect. The forecast accuracy tracking system:

1. Stores the forecasted PV and load values for every planning slot.
2. Accumulates actual PV and load energy from instantaneous power readings during each coordinator cycle.
3. Finalises each slot after its end time passes, computing error metrics (MAE, bias, RMSE, MAPE).
4. Exposes the aggregated metrics via a diagnostic Home Assistant sensor.
5. Persists the record history across HA restarts so long-term trends are not lost.

What it does NOT do

• It does not change planner behaviour — no adaptive corrections, no confidence weighting, no feedback into the cost function.
• It does not require any new configuration options or feature flags.
• It does not write to the inverter or any hardware.
• It does not depend on Home Assistant — the core tracker is pure Python and fully testable with plain pytest.

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Architecture

flowchart TD
    A[async_collect_all_states]
    B[LiveState with instantaneous power readings]
    C[Planner runs]
    D[PlannerOutput with slot forecasts]
    E[_accumulate_forecast_actuals now, live]
    F[Read elapsed time and power from LiveState]
    G[compute_accumulated_energy power, elapsed]
    H[Accumulate kWh into current slot record]
    I[finalise_past_records for slots whose end time is before now]
    J[_register_forecasts_from_planner planner_output]
    K[Copy solcast_pv_estimate_kwh and avg_house_consumption_kwh]
    L[CoordinatorData packaged and pushed to subscribers]
    M[HSEMForecastAccuracySensor reads tracker]
    N[native_value is PV MAE in kWh]
    O[extra_state_attributes include error metrics and latest slot]
    P[_forecast_tracker_data serialized into attributes]

    A --> B --> C --> D --> E --> F --> G --> H --> I --> J --> K --> L --> M --> N --> O --> P

Loading

File layout

File	Responsibility
utils/forecast_tracker.py	Pure-Python tracker, slot records, summary, serialization
custom_sensors/forecast_accuracy_sensor.py	HA diagnostic sensor (coordinator subscriber)
coordinator.py	Integrates accumulation & forecast registration into update cycle
sensor.py	Registers the sensor entity
utils/sensornames.py	Name/unique_id/entity_id helpers

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ForecastTracker — core data structure

The ForecastTracker class in utils/forecast_tracker.py is a rolling ring-buffer of ForecastSlotRecord objects. It has no Home Assistant dependencies and can be used in isolation.

ForecastSlotRecord

Each record captures one planning slot:

Field	Type	Description
start	datetime	Timezone-aware slot start
end	datetime	Timezone-aware slot end
forecast_pv_kwh	float	Solcast PV forecast for this slot (kWh)
forecast_load_kwh	float	Weighted average load forecast (kWh)
actual_pv_kwh	float	Accumulated actual PV energy (kWh)
actual_load_kwh	float	Accumulated actual load energy (kWh)
finalised	bool	True after slot's end time passed and metrics computed
mae_pv	float | None	Mean absolute error PV (kWh), set on finalise
mae_load	float | None	Mean absolute error load (kWh), set on finalise
bias_pv	float | None	Signed bias PV (kWh), set on finalise
bias_load	float | None	Signed bias load (kWh), set on finalise

Key methods:

• accumulate_pv(energy_kwh) / accumulate_load(energy_kwh) — Add measured energy to the accumulator. Called multiple times per slot as the coordinator cycles.
• finalise() — Freezes the record and computes mae_pv, mae_load, bias_pv, bias_load. Idempotent — calling a second time is a no-op.
• to_dict() / from_dict(data) — JSON-safe serialization for reboot persistence (see below).

ForecastTracker

Property / Method	Description
records	Copy of all slot records, oldest first
summary	Computes and returns a ForecastErrorSummary from finalised records
get_or_create_record(start, end)	Returns existing record or creates a new one
find_record(start)	Look up a record by slot start time
finalise_record(start)	Finalise a specific record
finalise_past_records(now)	Finalise all records whose end <= now
set_forecasts(start, pv_kwh, load_kwh)	Set forecast values (only if not finalised)
to_dict() / load_from_dict(data)	Serialize / deserialize the full record list

The default maximum is 192 records, which covers approximately 48 hours of 15-minute slots. Older records are automatically pruned.

Energy accumulation

Instantaneous power readings (Watts) are converted to energy (kWh) using:

energy_kwh = power_w × (elapsed_seconds / 3600.0) / 1000.0

The helper function compute_accumulated_energy(power_w, elapsed_seconds) handles this conversion. Elapsed time is computed as the difference between the current coordinator cycle timestamp and the previous cycle's timestamp, so the accuracy depends on the coordinator update interval (default 5 minutes).

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Error metrics

Once a slot is finalised, the ForecastErrorSummary dataclass aggregates across all finalised records:

MAE — Mean Absolute Error

MAE = (1/n) × Σ |forecast_kwh − actual_kwh|

Units: kWh. Averages the absolute deviation. Lower is better.

Bias (signed error)

Bias = (1/n) × Σ (forecast_kwh − actual_kwh)

Units: kWh. Positive bias = systematic over-forecast (predicted more than actually occurred). Negative bias = under-forecast. Zero bias means the forecast is accurate on average (but may have large cancellations).

RMSE — Root Mean Squared Error

RMSE = √( (1/n) × Σ (forecast_kwh − actual_kwh)² )

Units: kWh. Penalises large errors more heavily than MAE. Useful for detecting occasional big misses.

MAPE — Mean Absolute Percentage Error

MAPE = (1/n) × Σ ( |forecast_kwh − actual_kwh| / |actual_kwh| ) × 100

Units: percent. Makes errors comparable across different power levels. Returns None when all actual values are zero (division by zero guard).

Exposure via as_dict()

The summary also includes:

• window_slots — total slots in the ring buffer (finalised + unfinalised)
• finalised_slots — how many slots contribute to the metrics

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Coordinator integration

The coordinator owns the single _forecast_tracker: ForecastTracker instance, created in __init__ with max_slots=192. Two private methods are called during each update cycle:

_accumulate_forecast_actuals(now, live)

Called every cycle after state collection. Steps:

1. Compute elapsed seconds since the last accumulation.
2. Find the current recommendation slot (the one whose time range contains now).
3. Get or create a tracker record for that slot.
4. Convert instantaneous PV and load power to energy using compute_accumulated_energy().
5. Accumulate the energy into the tracker record.
6. Call finalise_past_records(now) to finalise any slots that have ended.

_register_forecasts_from_planner(output)

Called after the planner runs, before the current slot is resolved. Iterates over every slot in the PlannerOutput and calls tracker.set_forecasts(start, pv_kwh=slot.solcast_pv_estimate_kwh, load_kwh=slot.avg_house_consumption_kwh).

This means forecasts are only registered when the planner successfully runs. If the planner is skipped (missing entities, force mode, consumption data not ready), forecasts are not updated but accumulation still happens.

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Sensor attributes

The HSEMForecastAccuracySensor is a diagnostic sensor (EntityCategory.DIAGNOSTIC) that subscribes to the coordinator.

State

The sensor's native_value is the PV MAE in kWh, rounded to 3 decimal places. Returns None while no slots have been finalised yet.

Extra state attributes

Attribute	Source	Example
window_slots	ForecastErrorSummary.window_slots	192
finalised_slots	ForecastErrorSummary.finalised_count	24
mae_pv_kwh	ForecastErrorSummary.mae_pv_kwh	0.1523
mae_load_kwh	ForecastErrorSummary.mae_load_kwh	0.0841
bias_pv_kwh	ForecastErrorSummary.bias_pv_kwh	0.0421
bias_load_kwh	ForecastErrorSummary.bias_load_kwh	-0.0112
rmse_pv_kwh	ForecastErrorSummary.rmse_pv_kwh	0.2134
rmse_load_kwh	ForecastErrorSummary.rmse_load_kwh	0.1245
mape_pv_pct	ForecastErrorSummary.mape_pv_pct	22.5
mape_load_pct	ForecastErrorSummary.mape_load_pct	8.3
latest_pv_forecast_kwh	Latest finalised record's forecast PV	1.25
latest_pv_actual_kwh	Latest finalised record's actual PV	1.18
latest_load_forecast_kwh	Latest finalised record's forecast load	0.65
latest_load_actual_kwh	Latest finalised record's actual load	0.72
latest_bias_pv_kwh	Latest finalised record's PV bias	0.07
latest_bias_load_kwh	Latest finalised record's load bias	-0.07
_forecast_tracker_data	Serialised record list (used internally)	(opaque dict)

Template examples

# Get PV MAE
{{ state('sensor.forecast_accuracy') }}

# Get PV bias
{{ state_attr('sensor.forecast_accuracy', 'bias_pv_kwh') }}

# Check if PV systematically over-forecasts
{{ state_attr('sensor.forecast_accuracy', 'bias_pv_kwh') > 0.1 }}

# Get load MAPE as percentage
{{ state_attr('sensor.forecast_accuracy', 'mape_load_pct') }}

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Reboot persistence

The forecast tracker data survives HA restarts using the standard RestoreEntity pattern already used by other HSEM diagnostic sensors:

1. Every cycle, the sensor's extra_state_attributes includes a _forecast_tracker_data key containing the full serialised record list from tracker.to_dict().

2. HA's recorder automatically stores these attributes in its database.

3. On restart, async_added_to_hass calls async_get_last_state() to retrieve the previous state, extracts _forecast_tracker_data, and passes it to tracker.load_from_dict(data).

4. After restoration, the tracker resumes normal operation — accumulation continues from the current slot, any slots that ended during the restart window are finalised on the next cycle, and the summary reflects all historical data.

This means forecast accuracy trends are preserved across reboots without any custom storage, file I/O, or database schema.

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Tests

All tests are in tests/test_forecast_tracker.py. They use the real ForecastTracker class without Home Assistant — plain pytest against pure Python code.

Test coverage (31 tests)

Category	Tests	What's covered
TestComputeAccumulatedEnergy	5	1000W/1h, 500W/30m, zero power, zero elapsed, negative power
TestForecastSlotRecord	5	Finalise metrics, exact match, accumulate, idempotent finalise
TestForecastTrackerLifecycle	10	Create/find records, finalise, prune, set forecasts, finalise past
TestForecastTrackerSummary	9	Empty, exact, over, under, mixed, MAPE div-by-zero, MAPE values, as_dict
TestForecastTrackerIntegration	3	Full cycle single slot, over+under pair, finalise past + summary
TestForecastTrackerSerialization	5	Record to_dict empty, record to_dict finalised, tracker empty, round trip, unfinalised restore

Running the tests

# Requires the venv with HA dependencies:
pytest tests/test_forecast_tracker.py

Or run the standalone tests that inline the tracker logic (no HA imports):

python -m pytest tests/test_forecast_tracker.py