test(cliffs): RESULT - the unexplained residual sits on CHUNK BORDERS, 2.91 sigma (#84) - #132
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…, 2.91 sigma (#84) #131 reported a chunk-border enrichment as a lead and said one more capture round would settle it. It did. | batch | unexplained | on border | base | z | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | original 3 regions | 14 | 9 (64.3%) | 45.0% | 1.45 | | +4 regions (#131) | 13 | 9 (69.2%) | 47.2% | 1.59 | | +8 regions (here) | 17 | 12 (70.6%) | 46.0% | 2.03 | | combined, 15 regions | 44 | 30 (68.2%) | ~46.3%| 2.91 | p is about 0.002. This is a RESULT, not a lead. THE PREDICTION WAS REGISTERED BEFORE THE CAPTURE, in `captureVulcanusCliffEntitiesBorderBatch`'s own doc comment: ~26 more unexplained cells with ~17 on a border if the enrichment is real at ~66%, combined ~2.9 sigma - and a FALL back toward the base rate if it is noise. It came back 12 of 17, at a higher rate on fewer cells, combined landing on 2.91. Effect size stable across all three batches (64-71%) against a stable base rate (45-47%). The first row was correctly dismissed as noise when it was all there was. Its value came from being written down so it could be re-tested once n grew. WHY IT POINTS AT `updateConnections`: chunk borders are that rule's entire domain - `applyCliffs` gates it on `tryToAddCliff`'s fifth argument, which is `!onChunkBorder`. Nothing else in the pipeline treats border cells differently. And it is the rule the port has the weakest grip on: measured firing ZERO times on our own set, modelled as an UPPER bound (the one place the port is knowingly not a transcription), promoted from inert to load-bearing by #122, and shown by #127 to be unscoreable from map-gen output. This is the first positive evidence it does anything. WHAT IT DOES NOT SAY: not that those 30 are destroyed BY updateConnections. An enrichment on a rule's domain is not the rule firing, and 14 of the 44 are not on a border at all - if this is one cause it is not the only one. The port also generalises: 5581 raw / 5134 game cliffs, strict superset in all eight regions, precision 0.9818, recall 0.8434. Two regions have no unexplained cells and [-1600,3200] reproduces the game exactly (686 = 686), so the residual is concentrated rather than a background rate - itself a constraint on any mechanism proposed for it. New fixture + PROVENANCE entry; capture ~31s. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_015jeznBmWiZywUc7cBw9xFU
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…ism REFUTED (#84) (#134) #132 gave `updateConnections` the lead on the clause "nothing else in the pipeline treats border cells differently at all". That clause was false, and the counter-example makes the lead stronger rather than weaker. A cliff's collision box reaches 3.371 tiles; a border cell's centre is 1.5-2.5 tiles from the chunk edge and every interior cell's is 5.5-6.5. So 16 of the 20 orientations cross a chunk edge from the outer ring and none can from anywhere else - a second border-only channel. And there is a rule on the far side of it: `Surface::checkTileCollisions` skips a tile whose id is 0, and `getEffectiveTileID` returns 0 for an absent chunk, so a box reaching into a not-yet-generated chunk reads no tile and does not collide. Scored on twelve regions already on disk, with the losing condition registered before the run - "a non-crossing border rate that is not lower than the crossing one refutes it": | population | unexplained | rate | | --- | --- | --- | | interior | 9 / 4484 | 0.20% | | border, box crosses an edge | 7 / 1407 | 0.50% | | border, box does not cross | 14 / 2479 | 0.56% | No-information predicts 7.6 crossing cells; observed 7. Refuted. Its own direction fails too: an absent chunk makes the game KEEP a cliff, so its signature is a false rejection with a blocking tile across an edge - 0 of 9, and the predicate is non-vacuous. The gain is a property the 2.91-sigma result did not have: the enrichment is orientation-BLIND, which is what a cell-index gate looks like. Both halves keep the 2.7x enrichment over the interior. `Cliff`'s connection system is also now decompiled whole. Three facts change what to try next: - `onDestroy`'s cascade has FOUR gates, including `map->[0x240] == 0` and an entity flag set from the creation parameters. Map generation satisfies all four; a Lua or editor probe need not - a hazard for exactly the runtime probe #127 asked for. - `crater-cliff` has no connections at all: the whole system is gated on `proto->place_as_crater == nullptr`. - There is no second connection pass during map generation. `updateAndFixConnections` is called from one site in the binary, `CliffEditor::buildCliffs`. No new fixtures, no shipping behaviour change. Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01MmitdaFJxN9Wm8LkQu33kc Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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#131 reported a chunk-border enrichment as a lead and said one more capture round would settle it. It did.
p ≈ 0.002. This is a result, not a lead.
The prediction was registered before the capture
Written into
captureVulcanusCliffEntitiesBorderBatch's own doc comment, before it ran: roughly 26 more unexplained cells with about 17 on a border if the enrichment is real at ~66%, taking the combined figure to ~2.9 sigma - and a fall back toward the base rate if it is noise.It came back 12 of 17, at a higher rate than predicted on fewer cells, and the combined figure landed on 2.91. Effect size is stable across all three batches (64-71%) against a base rate that is also stable (45-47%) - which is what says the comparison is sound rather than the numerator being lucky.
The first row was correctly dismissed as noise when it was all there was. Its value came from being written down, so it could be re-tested once n grew.
Why it points at
updateConnectionsChunk borders are that rule's entire domain.
applyCliffsgates it ontryToAddCliff's fifth argument, which is!onChunkBorder, so it runs on the chunk's outer ring and nowhere else. Nothing else in the pipeline treats border cells differently at all.And it is the rule the port has the weakest grip on:
cliffConnections.spec.tsmeasures it firing zero times on our own cell set, andapplyCliffConnectionsdocuments its model as an upper bound - the one place the port is knowingly not a transcriptionModelled approximately, unobservable directly, and the residual it cannot explain is enriched 1.47x on precisely its domain. First positive evidence that
updateConnectionsdoes anything.What it does NOT say
It does not say those 30 cells are destroyed by
updateConnections. An enrichment on a rule's domain is not the rule firing, and 14 of the 44 are not on a border at all - so if this is one cause, it is not the only one.The port generalises, across fifteen regions
Two of the eight have no unexplained cells at all, and
[-1600,3200]reproduces the game exactly (686 = 686). The residual is concentrated, not a background rate - itself a constraint on any mechanism proposed for it.Verification
pnpm run verifygreen - 1499 app (up 6) + 13 worker + 3 container tests, 0 warnings, exit 0. New fixture +PROVENANCE.jsonentry; capture ~31s. Nothing shipping changed.🤖 Generated with Claude Code
https://claude.ai/code/session_015jeznBmWiZywUc7cBw9xFU