test(cliffs): raising n - WEST replicates, "west specifically" does NOT (#84)

[wormeyman]

The check six mechanism hunts were spent without. #150's z = 3.01 edge split and #151's four sweep-order arms all reuse the same 14 regions, so every one of them was a re-slice of a single sample - the shape this repo has been burned by before.

New capture: oracle-vulcanus-cliff-entities-west-oos, eight fresh Vulcanus regions with the same paired ON / ALL-resources-OFF ore lever, disjoint from all 15 already in use and spread away from spawn and from each other.

	unexplained	on border	W	N	E	S	z(W)	z(N)	z(E)
in sample (14 regions)	25	19	9	5	3	2	2.60	0.41	−1.21
out of sample (8 new)	34	23	10	9	4	7	2.29	1.79	−1.04

What replicates

West is the most enriched edge again (z = 2.29), and east is the depleted edge in both samples. The concentration is real - it is not an artifact of re-slicing one sample.

What does not

"West specifically." In sample, north sat at its base rate (z = 0.41) and west led it by more than 2 sigma. Out of sample north is 1.79, trailing west by half a sigma. The claim that survives both samples is weaker and differently shaped:

the low-coordinate edges - west and north - are enriched, and east is depleted.

That widens the target rather than narrowing it, and it matters because "west" and "west + north" point at different mechanisms. Note #151 already refuted, by permutation, the one rule whose asymmetry is literally west-then-north: the repair sweep's L, T, R, B clear order.

The cost of not doing this earlier

#150's headline was a 4-bin split on 17 cells from one sample. Its Bonferroni note was the right caution about the wrong risk: the multiple-comparison correction survived, and it was the sample that did not. Raise n before slicing again.

Contents

• the vulcanus-cliff-entities-west-oos capture target
• the fixture, and its PROVENANCE.json entry (2.1.12; pnpm refs:sync --check reported in sync at capture time)
• test/cliffWestOutOfSample.spec.ts, which asserts both halves - what replicated and what did not

Verification

pnpm run verify green - 1588 app (up 4) + 13 worker + 3 container tests, 0 warnings, exit 0. Measurement only; shipping accuracy unchanged.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

https://claude.ai/code/session_01HKjzpWJw1HbnigPP9udqN2