feat(event): score mention confidence with a known-truth Brier rule

[seonghobae]

Summary

#37–#63 remain review-blocked (no independent APPROVE). #37 and #45 kept ready. Next no-0008 gap: mention-confidence Brier score in existing event_core (does not recreate the TDT/CHRONOS #50 slice).

• Perfect (0,1,0,1) forecasts recover Brier 0
• Constant 0.5 recovers 0.25 with computed residual RMSE
• Empty/mismatched streams fail closed

Test plan

• RED: confidence_calibration_contract failed with E0432
• cargo test -p event_core --offline
• cargo clippy -p event_core --all-targets --offline -- -D warnings
• python3 scripts/validate_documentation.py and check_docstrings.py
• exact-head required Checks (do not treat queued evidence as passed)

Do not self-approve or merge. Prefer merge #37 then #45 when eligible. Do not allocate 0008.

[coderabbitai]

Warning

Review limit reached

@seonghobae, you've reached your PR review limit, so we couldn't start this review.

Next review available in: 61 minutes

You've used all free OSS reviews for now. Wait for the free limit to reset to keep reviewing this public repository.

How can I continue?

After more reviews become available, a review can be triggered using the @coderabbitai review command as a PR comment. Alternatively, push new commits to this PR.

To avoid repeated limits, reduce automatic review volume by pausing incremental auto-reviews earlier, using label-based review opt-in, excluding WIP or generated PR titles, or requesting reviews manually when the PR is ready. If your team needs uninterrupted high-volume reviews, an organization admin can enable usage-based reviews.

How do review limits work?

CodeRabbit enforces per-developer PR review limits for each organization. Most developers receive the normal plan review availability.

For paid Pro and Pro+ PR reviews, CodeRabbit uses adaptive limits for sustained high-volume activity. When a developer's recent PR review activity reaches the 95th percentile or higher among CodeRabbit users, additional reviews become available more gradually as earlier reviews age out of the rolling window.

Please refer docs for additional details.

Review details

⚙️ Run configuration

Configuration used: Organization UI

Review profile: CHILL

Plan: Pro Plus

Run ID: 068ad758-6077-4972-b8c2-762af4ca04cb

📥 Commits

Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between b2a3f87 and b056ac9.

📒 Files selected for processing (8)

• CHANGELOG.md
• DOCUMENTATION.md
• crates/event_core/src/confidence.rs
• crates/event_core/src/lib.rs
• crates/event_core/tests/confidence_calibration_contract.rs
• docs/TRACEABILITY.md
• docs/research/mention-confidence-brier.md
• docs/validation/temporal-event-foundation.md

---

Thanks for using CodeRabbit! It's free for OSS, and your support helps us grow. If you like it, consider giving us a shout-out.

❤️ Share

• X
• Mastodon
• Reddit
• LinkedIn

_{Comment @coderabbitai help to get the list of available commands.}