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Precip+drying lit review: rag-build + 7 papers + cite map (2/3)#62

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61-precip-drying-lit-review
May 5, 2026
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Precip+drying lit review: rag-build + 7 papers + cite map (2/3)#62
NewGraphEnvironment merged 4 commits into
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61-precip-drying-lit-review

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Summary

  • Issue 2 of the climate-departure 3-split lit reviews (precipitation + drying; temperature done in Lit-review temperature-departure methodology + interpretation backing #58/Temperature-departure lit review: rag-build + 10 papers + cite map (1/3) #60/v0.2.2; interpretation framing forthcoming). Mirrors the Lit-review temperature-departure methodology + interpretation backing #58/Temperature-departure lit review: rag-build + 10 papers + cite map (1/3) #60 pattern verbatim — produces a citation backbone that the downstream vignette branch consumes via [@key] markers.
  • 7 new peer-reviewed papers added to the NewGraphEnvironment/climate Zotero collection with PDFs attached: Williams 2020 (NA megadrought attribution), Ficklin & Novick 2017 (VPD US continental-scale drying), Grossiord 2020 (plant responses to rising VPD), Trenberth 2014 (drought framework), Min 2011 (anthropogenic precip extremes), Mekis & Vincent 2011 (adjusted Canadian precip dataset), Marvel 2019 (20th-century hydroclimate signal). Plus 5 reuse-relevant existing climate-collection items + 2 cross-rag references from snow + temperature methodology stores.
  • Local ragnar DuckDB at data/rag/precip_drying_methodology.duckdb (526 chunks, 7 sources, ~25 s ingest via Ollama nomic-embed-text), built by the new scripts/rag_precip_drying_methodology_build.R. 24-query mining via scripts/rag_precip_drying_methodology_query.R produced planning/active/precip_drying_methodology_quotes.md (626 lines), synthesized into findings.md with methodology-quotes-by-topic, cross-cutting methodology, and a 15-row "cite this for that" menu (BBT-auto-derived keys ready for downstream [@key] insertion).
  • Two Lit-review temperature-departure methodology + interpretation backing #58 lessons applied cleanly: no Citation Key: overrides in the extra field (BBT auto-derives per soul#43); all 7 papers had ≥2 individual creators per CrossRef so no Pepin-style corporate-author PATCH was needed. macOS auto-restart automated via osascript -e 'tell application "Zotero" to quit'; sleep 3; open -a Zotero; sleep 30 — verified working for 7 items, ~30 s wait sufficient. Pattern documented in soul#43.

Headline finding: the v0.1.1 vignette finding that "soils dry from both ↓P and ↑ET" is now backed by Ficklin & Novick 2017 (VPD US continental-scale drying), Williams 2020 (anthropogenic warming → NA megadrought, 47% of drought severity), and Trenberth 2014 (proper PDSI methodology with Penman-Monteith ET). The atmospheric-evaporative-demand half of the drying story is well-grounded in this corpus.

Relates to NewGraphEnvironment/sred-2025-2026#23.

Fixes #61.

Test plan

  • devtools::test() clean on 61-precip-drying-lit-review (verified: 166 PASS, 0 FAIL)
  • lintr::lint() on new scripts → 0 lints (verified)
  • Rscript scripts/rag_precip_drying_methodology_build.R reproduces the store (7 sources, ~526 chunks) given the local PDF cache populated from Zotero
  • Rscript scripts/rag_precip_drying_methodology_query.R regenerates planning/active/precip_drying_methodology_quotes.md
  • All 7 BBT citation keys in findings.md Phase 2 table resolve to items in NewGraphEnvironment/climate (verified via local sqlite)
  • PWF checkboxes in planning/active/task_plan.md match landed work
  • No vignette edits on this branch (lit review is decoupled from the downstream vignette wire-up)

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Lit-review precipitation + drying methodology + interpretation
backing. Issue 2 of 3 in the climate-departure 3-split lit reviews
(temperature [done #58/v0.2.2], precip+drying [this], interpretation
framing [forthcoming]). Mirrors #58 phase structure verbatim.

PWF baseline carries forward 5 explicit lessons from #58:
  1. BBT 9.x for Zotero 8/9 (compat split)
  2. No Citation Key: overrides in extra (BBT auto-derives, soul#43)
  3. PATCH individual authors when CrossRef returns only corporate
     name (Pepin 2015 working-group case)
  4. OCR image-only scans before Zotero attach (Karl 93, Richter 05)
  5. noun_verb naming for new rag scripts
… cross-rag)

Targeted web search confirmed DOIs + OA paths for 7 new papers:
Williams 2020 (NA megadrought), Ficklin & Novick 2017 (VPD US),
Grossiord 2020 (VPD plants), Trenberth 2014 (global drought),
Min 2011 (anthropogenic precip extremes), Mekis & Vincent 2011
(Canadian precip dataset), Marvel 2019 (20th-century hydroclimate).

Skipped from initial candidate list: Donat 2013 HadEX2 (Min 2011
covers attribution; supplementary), Mass 2002 (NWP not orographic
processes per se), Daly 2008 PRISM (methodology aside; cd uses
ERA5-Land), Sheffield & Wood 2008 (superseded by Trenberth 2014).

5 existing climate-collection items + 4 cross-rag references from
snow + temperature methodology stores cover the BC-specific
hydrology, ERA5-Land soil-moisture validation, and trend-test
methodology angles without duplicate Zotero entries.

11-topic coverage matrix in findings.md maps every #61 vignette
claim type to its primary + supporting citations, ready for the
Phase 5 cite-this-for-that map. Per philosophy memory
(feedback_vignette_citations_sparse.md), the matrix is a menu —
downstream branch picks sparingly per AOI graph/table findings.

PDF acquisition: 5 OA-fetchable (UCAR, NASA-GISS, escholarship,
Canada.gov, utah.edu), 2 paywalled needing user RG download
(Ficklin & Novick 2017, Min 2011).

Refs #61.
POSTed all 7 candidates to NewGraphEnvironment/climate (key
8MH9LCC9) via Zotero Web API with PDFs attached via S3. CrossRef-
driven metadata; tags precip-drying-departure-methodology +
cd-issue-61. 3 fresh uploads (Williams, Ficklin, Marvel), 4 md5-
deduped. All 7 items have >=2 individual creators per CrossRef
(no Pepin-style corporate-only authorship to PATCH around).

PDF sourcing: 4 via curl (Williams emnrd.nm.gov, Grossiord
utah.edu, Mekis Vincent ec.gc.ca, Min Edinburgh ghegerl PDF), 3
user-RG (Ficklin, Trenberth, Marvel). Marvel needed OCR (LLNL
preprint image-only scan; working title differs from published
Nature title but same DOI).

No Citation Key overrides in extra per NGE convention (soul#43
+ #58 lesson).

User action pending: restart Zotero desktop so BBT generates
citation keys. After restart, keys get captured into findings.md
+ Phase 3 rag build script.

Refs #61.
Phase 3 — adds scripts/rag_precip_drying_methodology_build.R cloning
the temp build script with a 7-paper pdf_specs map. Runs in ~25 s on
Ollama nomic-embed-text:
  Found 7 / 7 PDFs
  Chunks: 526
  Sources: 7

Phase 4 — adds scripts/rag_precip_drying_methodology_query.R running
24 queries across 8 topics and capturing top-5 chunks each to
planning/active/precip_drying_methodology_quotes.md (626 lines).
Topics: precip trend methodology, anthropogenic precip-extremes
attribution, VPD continental-scale drying, VPD ecosystem responses,
drought attribution (NA megadrought), drought framework,
20th-century hydroclimate pattern, BC/PNW summer flow.

Phase 5 — synthesis in findings.md: per-topic methodology quotes
selected from the rag retrieval, cross-cutting methodology section
(baseline window + trend test consistent with snow+temp; ERA5-Land
precip+soil-moisture validation gap noted with same caveat as #58),
no new deviations beyond #58, and a 15-row cite-this-for-that menu
mapping vignette claim types to BBT-auto-derived citation keys.

Key capture: all 7 BBT keys generated cleanly after auto-restart of
Zotero (osascript -e quit; open -a Zotero; ~30 s wait). Pattern
verified working and added to soul#43 alongside the corporate-author
guard (cf Pepin 2015) and BBT plugin compat-split note.

Trenberth 2014 BBT key surfaced as trenberth_etal2013Globalwarming
because CrossRef issued = 2013-12-17 online; print issue is 2014-01.
Leaving as-is per the auto-derived convention.

Refs #61.
@NewGraphEnvironment NewGraphEnvironment merged commit c37399c into main May 5, 2026
1 check passed
@NewGraphEnvironment NewGraphEnvironment deleted the 61-precip-drying-lit-review branch May 5, 2026 20:33
NewGraphEnvironment added a commit that referenced this pull request May 5, 2026
…/3) (#64)

* Initialize PWF baseline for #63

* Phase 1: interpretation framing candidate list (4 new + 6 reuse + 4 cross-rag)

* Phases 2+3+4+5: framing rag store + query + synthesis (with auto-restart)

Phase 2 — POSTed 4 candidates to NewGraphEnvironment/climate
(8MH9LCC9) via Web API with PDFs attached via S3. CrossRef-driven
metadata; tags interpretation-framing-methodology + cd-issue-63.
2 fresh PDF uploads (Arguez & Vose, Hawkins & Sutton), 2 md5-
deduped (Hansen 2012, Livezey 2007). Auto-restart fired and all 4
BBT keys captured cleanly:
  arguez_vose2011DefinitionStandard
  livezey_etal2007EstimationExtrapolation
  hawkins_sutton2012Timeemergence
  hansen_etal2012Perceptionclimate

Phase 3 — adds scripts/rag_interpretation_framing_build.R cloning
the precip+drying build script with a 4-paper pdf_specs map. Runs
in ~10 s on Ollama nomic-embed-text:
  Found 4 / 4 PDFs
  Chunks: 291
  Sources: 4

Phase 4 — adds scripts/rag_interpretation_framing_query.R running
16 queries across 6 topics (narrower than #58/#61's 24 queries
since framing topic surface is smaller). Captures top-5 chunks each
to planning/active/interpretation_framing_quotes.md (373 lines).
Topics: baseline window methodology, normals when trends exist,
time of emergence, cumulative-impact / loaded dice, shifting
baseline climate, departure from recent variability.

Phase 5 — synthesis in findings.md: per-topic methodology quotes
selected from the rag retrieval, cross-cutting methodology section
(Hansen 2012's choice of 1951-1980 base period validates cd's
choice for cumulative-impact reporting — strongest direct precedent
across all three lit reviews), 3 documented deviations (1951-1980
vs WMO 1961-1990 baseline, no AC correction, ToE not quantified
per-AOI), and an 11-row cite-this-for-that menu mapping vignette
framing claim types to BBT-auto-derived citation keys.

3-split scoreboard added to findings.md — pointer to the four
findings.md files (#53/#54 snow, #58/#60 temp, #61/#62 precip+
drying, this) for the downstream vignette wire-up branch.

Refs #63.
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Lit-review precipitation + drying methodology + interpretation backing (2/3)

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