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Add official observation facts for Thesis resolutions#52

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MaxGhenis wants to merge 6 commits into
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codex/thesis-ledger-facts
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Add official observation facts for Thesis resolutions#52
MaxGhenis wants to merge 6 commits into
mainfrom
codex/thesis-ledger-facts

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@MaxGhenis

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Summary

  • add a PolicyEngine Ledger facts directory for official observation rows
  • record five May 2026 labor-market resolution facts used by Thesis
  • validate the rows as source-backed aggregate facts and ensure they do not contain prediction fields

Tests

  • uv run pytest tests/test_policyengine_ledger.py

MaxGhenis and others added 6 commits June 8, 2026 09:29
Record eight source-backed delivery observations for Thesis resolutions:
FY2024 national SNAP payment error rates (total, over, under) from the
FNS QC release; California FY2024 SNAP application processing timeliness;
and California February 2026 Medicaid renewal counts (renewed total,
ex parte, disenrolled total, procedural) from the CMS State Medicaid and
CHIP Eligibility Processing Data dataset.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…B June decisions, UK April GDP, Canada April permits

Each value recorded from the publisher's release and cross-checked
against an independent mirror; source_record_id keys match the Thesis
catalog's dataPointIds for resolution pairing.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis

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Superseded by #73. The concept this PR introduced — observation facts for Thesis resolutions with a hard "no prediction fields" guarantee — is now first-class schema: every fact carries assertion: observation | source_projection, PolicyEngine-computed values fail validation, and consumer rows expose the assertion explicitly, so Thesis can select assertion: observation rows as a model-free resolution substrate.

The five May-2026 BLS labor-market rows themselves should re-land as a proper packages/bls/ source package (news-release HTML artifact, guard cells, lineage) rather than a hand-maintained JSONL inside the Python package — tracked in #74. Closing in favor of those two.

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis closed this Jul 2, 2026
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