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Merged
MaxGhenis merged 1 commit into from
Jun 20, 2026
Merged

Use 2024 SOI filing-season EITC totals #152

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33 changes: 28 additions & 5 deletions packages/populace-build/src/populace/build/us/fiscal_targets.py
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -688,11 +688,11 @@ def _uprate_cross_period_eitc_decompositions(
continue
kind = _eitc_total_kind(spec)
source_period = spec.metadata.get("source_period", "")
target_total = target_totals.get(kind)
target_total = target_totals.get(kind or "")
source_total = source_totals.get((kind, source_period))
if target_total is None or source_total in (None, 0):
continue
factor = target_total / source_total
factor = target_total.value / source_total
specs.append(
replace(
spec,
Expand All @@ -702,22 +702,45 @@ def _uprate_cross_period_eitc_decompositions(
"uprating_index": _eitc_uprating_index(kind),
"uprating_from_period": source_period,
"uprating_to_period": str(spec.period),
"uprating_index_source_period": target_total.source_period,
"uprating_index_source_record_id": target_total.source_record_id,
"uprating_factor": _format_float(factor),
},
)
)
return TargetRegistry(specs, country=registry.country)


def _eitc_active_totals(registry: TargetRegistry) -> dict[str, float]:
totals: dict[str, float] = {}
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class _EitcActiveTotal:
value: float
source_period: str
source_record_id: str
period_key: tuple[int, int, str]


def _eitc_active_totals(registry: TargetRegistry) -> dict[str, _EitcActiveTotal]:
totals: dict[str, _EitcActiveTotal] = {}
for spec in registry.specs:
kind = _eitc_total_kind(spec)
if kind is None:
continue
if spec.metadata.get("target_role") not in _eitc_total_roles(kind):
continue
totals[kind] = spec.value
source_period = spec.metadata.get("source_period", "")
candidate = _EitcActiveTotal(
value=spec.value,
source_period=source_period,
source_record_id=spec.metadata.get("ledger_source_record_id", spec.name),
period_key=_period_key_from_value(source_period),
)
current = totals.get(kind)
if current is None or _prefer_candidate(
candidate.period_key,
current.period_key,
target_period_key=_period_key_from_value(spec.period),
):
totals[kind] = candidate
return totals


Expand Down
5 changes: 3 additions & 2 deletions packages/populace-build/src/populace/build/us/source_coverage.py
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@

This is a pinned Populace-side copy of the Ledger source coverage contract
merged in ``PolicyEngine/ledger-data`` commit
``4fee6d0ac90b7b58257d025db03ed905fb08fca7``. Ledger owns source packages;
``e2fc882c35f9203c788a7159e7b08b0b5e5ceb58``. Ledger owns source packages;
Populace owns whether source families are active hard targets, validation-only
diagnostics, or explicit source gaps in a release profile.
"""
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -30,7 +30,7 @@
"validation_only_family_ids",
]

LEDGER_US_SOURCE_COVERAGE_CONTRACT_COMMIT = "4fee6d0ac90b7b58257d025db03ed905fb08fca7"
LEDGER_US_SOURCE_COVERAGE_CONTRACT_COMMIT = "e2fc882c35f9203c788a7159e7b08b0b5e5ceb58"

CoverageRole = Literal["hard_target", "validation_only", "source_gap"]

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -82,6 +82,7 @@ class SourceCoverageEntry:
"soi-table-2-1",
"soi-table-2-5",
"soi-table-2-5-eitc-agi-children-2023",
"soi-filing-season-week47-2024-eitc-total",
"soi-table-4-3",
"soi-state-2022",
"soi-historic-table-2",
Expand Down
19 changes: 11 additions & 8 deletions packages/populace-build/tests/test_us_fiscal_refresh_builder.py
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -94,13 +94,15 @@ def diagnostic(name, target, final_estimate):
17_100_000.0,
),
diagnostic(
"irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.us.all.eitc_amount",
59_204_610_000.0,
63_000_000_000.0,
"irs_soi.ty2024.filing_season_week47.eitc_all_returns."
"earned_income_credit.total_earned_income_credit_amount",
69_041_649_000.0,
70_000_000_000.0,
),
diagnostic(
"irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.us.all.eitc_claims",
23_692_200.0,
"irs_soi.ty2024.filing_season_week47.eitc_all_returns."
"earned_income_credit.total_earned_income_credit_returns",
23_837_149.0,
23_800_000.0,
),
diagnostic(
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1136,10 +1138,11 @@ def test_release_gate_failures_reject_bad_national_credit_and_ss_fits() -> None:
43_994_700.0,
),
(
"irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.us.all.eitc_amount",
"irs_soi.ty2024.filing_season_week47.eitc_all_returns."
"earned_income_credit.total_earned_income_credit_amount",
"Earned Income Tax Credit amount",
59_204_610_000.0,
70_208_900_000.0,
69_041_649_000.0,
83_000_000_000.0,
),
(
"irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.us.all.premium_tax_credit_amount",
Expand Down
127 changes: 120 additions & 7 deletions packages/populace-build/tests/test_us_fiscal_targets.py
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -764,6 +764,92 @@ def test_cross_period_soi_eitc_decomposition_uprates_to_active_total() -> None:
assert scaled_child_total.metadata["uprating_factor"] == "1.2"


def test_cross_period_soi_eitc_decomposition_uses_latest_source_backed_total() -> None:
source_record_id = (
"irs_soi.ty2023.table_2_5.eitc_by_agi_children.one_qualifying_child."
"25k_to_30k.eitc_total"
)
registry = compile_us_fiscal_target_registry(
[
*packaged_reference_facts(),
_soi_eitc_total_fact(
2023,
measure_id="total_earned_income_credit_amount",
value=66_270_000_000,
),
*_soi_eitc_child_total_facts(
2023,
measure_id="eitc_total",
values={"all_qualifying_children": 66_270_000_000},
),
_soi_eitc_filing_season_total_fact(
measure_id="total_earned_income_credit_amount",
value=69_041_649_000,
),
_soi_eitc_child_fact(
2023,
source_record_id=source_record_id,
measure_id="eitc_total",
value=66_270_000,
),
],
target_period=2024,
)

spec = {spec.name: spec for spec in registry.specs}[source_record_id]
assert spec.value == 69_041_649
assert spec.metadata["uprating_index"] == "total_eitc_amount"
assert spec.metadata["uprating_index_source_period"] == "2024"
assert spec.metadata["uprating_index_source_record_id"] == (
"irs_soi.ty2024.filing_season_week47.eitc_all_returns."
"earned_income_credit.total_earned_income_credit_amount"
)
assert spec.metadata["uprating_factor"] == "1.04182358533273"


def test_cross_period_soi_eitc_returns_uprate_to_filing_season_total() -> None:
source_record_id = (
"irs_soi.ty2023.table_2_5.eitc_by_agi_children.one_qualifying_child."
"25k_to_30k.eitc_returns"
)
registry = compile_us_fiscal_target_registry(
[
*packaged_reference_facts(),
_soi_eitc_total_fact(
2023,
measure_id="total_earned_income_credit_returns",
value=24_439_936,
),
*_soi_eitc_child_total_facts(
2023,
measure_id="eitc_returns",
values={"all_qualifying_children": 24_439_936},
),
_soi_eitc_filing_season_total_fact(
measure_id="total_earned_income_credit_returns",
value=23_837_149,
),
_soi_eitc_child_fact(
2023,
source_record_id=source_record_id,
measure_id="eitc_returns",
value=24_439.936,
),
],
target_period=2024,
)

spec = {spec.name: spec for spec in registry.specs}[source_record_id]
assert spec.value == 23_837.149
assert spec.metadata["uprating_index"] == "total_eitc_returns"
assert spec.metadata["uprating_index_source_period"] == "2024"
assert spec.metadata["uprating_index_source_record_id"] == (
"irs_soi.ty2024.filing_season_week47.eitc_all_returns."
"earned_income_credit.total_earned_income_credit_returns"
)
assert spec.metadata["uprating_factor"] == "0.975335982876551"


def test_soi_eitc_layout_child_count_filter_reaches_compiled_target() -> None:
source_record_id = (
"irs_soi.ty2024.state_2022.us.eitc_three_or_more_children_returns."
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1621,24 +1707,51 @@ def _soi_eitc_total_fact(
)


def _soi_eitc_filing_season_total_fact(
*,
measure_id: str,
value: float,
) -> dict[str, object]:
source_record_id = (
"irs_soi.ty2024.filing_season_week47.eitc_all_returns."
f"earned_income_credit.{measure_id}"
)
suffix = "count" if measure_id.endswith("_returns") else "amount"
return _dynamic_ledger_fact(
source_record_id=source_record_id,
source_name="irs_soi",
measure_id=measure_id,
value=value,
period_value=2024,
dimensions={"income_range": "all", "filing_status": "all"},
layout_record_set_id=(
f"irs_soi.ty2024.filing_season_week47.eitc_all_returns.{suffix}"
),
groupby_dimension="irs_soi.filing_season_line",
groupby_value_id="earned_income_credit",
)


def _soi_eitc_child_total_facts(
source_period: int,
*,
measure_id: str,
values: dict[str, float] | None = None,
) -> list[dict[str, object]]:
values = {
"no_qualifying_children": 100,
"one_qualifying_child": 200,
"two_qualifying_children": 300,
"three_or_more_qualifying_children": 400,
}
if measure_id == "eitc_returns":
if values is None and measure_id == "eitc_returns":
values = {
"no_qualifying_children": 5,
"one_qualifying_child": 10,
"two_qualifying_children": 15,
"three_or_more_qualifying_children": 20,
}
elif values is None:
values = {
"no_qualifying_children": 100,
"one_qualifying_child": 200,
"two_qualifying_children": 300,
"three_or_more_qualifying_children": 400,
}
return [
_dynamic_ledger_fact(
source_record_id=(
Expand Down
1 change: 1 addition & 0 deletions packages/populace-build/tests/test_us_source_coverage.py
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -16,6 +16,7 @@

def test_us_source_coverage_snapshot_has_expected_roles() -> None:
assert len(LEDGER_US_SOURCE_COVERAGE_CONTRACT_COMMIT) == 40
assert "soi-filing-season-week47-2024-eitc-total" in hard_target_package_aliases()
assert "ssa-ssi-table-7b1-2024" in hard_target_package_aliases()
assert "cms-aca-oep-state-level-2025" in hard_target_package_aliases()
assert "census_cps_spm" in validation_only_family_ids()
Expand Down
11 changes: 9 additions & 2 deletions tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -129,12 +129,18 @@
"max_abs_relative_error": 0.10,
},
{
"name": (f"irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.us.all.eitc_amount@{PERIOD}"),
"name": (
"irs_soi.ty2024.filing_season_week47.eitc_all_returns."
f"earned_income_credit.total_earned_income_credit_amount@{PERIOD}"
),
"label": "Earned Income Tax Credit amount",
"max_abs_relative_error": 0.10,
},
{
"name": (f"irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.us.all.eitc_claims@{PERIOD}"),
"name": (
"irs_soi.ty2024.filing_season_week47.eitc_all_returns."
f"earned_income_credit.total_earned_income_credit_returns@{PERIOD}"
),
"label": "Earned Income Tax Credit claims",
"max_abs_relative_error": 0.10,
},
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -187,6 +193,7 @@
"soi-table-2-1",
"soi-table-2-5",
"soi-table-2-5-eitc-agi-children-2023",
"soi-filing-season-week47-2024-eitc-total",
"soi-table-4-3",
"soi-state-2022",
"soi-historic-table-2",
Expand Down
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