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Complete the aging chain for rebased capital-gains state rows (attempt-3 adjudication) - #488

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cg-state-chain-completion
Jul 21, 2026
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Complete the aging chain for rebased capital-gains state rows (attempt-3 adjudication)#488
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cg-state-chain-completion

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Adjudicates Build N attempt 3's only national gate failure. Full diagnostic receipts on #462 (raw facts, factor sources, and closure identities, all with feed/workbook line references).

The defect: the ht2 TY2022 state net-capital-gains family rebases onto the TY2023 Table 1.4 control (×0.771900, arithmetically exact for its inputs) and then stops — the rebase stamped uprating_to_period=2024 while landing at TY2023 data, and the ager skipped any row carrying uprating_factor as "already aligned". The national row continued TY2023→TY2024 via CBO (×1.315366, source-exact against the CBO workbook). Fifty-one mutually consistent state rows at TY2023 levels faced one national row at TY2024, 34% apart; the solve satisfied the 51 and ate −25.58% on the national — byte-identical to certified Build M's known gap, now blocking under #464. An input rescale (the intuitive fix) would have broken 51 excellent rows to satisfy one.

The fix keeps every chain link exactly once:

  • the CG rebase stamps uprating_to_period with the control's actual period;
  • target aging treats uprating_to_period as an uprated row's effective source period — rows uprated to build fall through to source_equals_build at factor 1 (values bit-identical; the already_period_aligned reason string retires), rows stopped at an earlier control receive exactly the remaining CBO links.

Closure identities (from the adjudication): 51-state sum → ~$1,245.1B vs national $1,270.9B; the $25.75B residual matches the exactly-identified OA+PR slice ($25.37B = ht2 US minus the 51 states, proven row-by-row from the source CSV) — internal consistency to ~0.03%. Also recorded there: the ht2-combined vs Table-1.4-gains-only concept distinction (0.17% same-year effect; ledger concept-alignment follow-up) and the fact that the other three uprating writers stamp the build period by construction (byte-identical behavior here; stale-control audit for them is a follow-up).

Tests: chain-completion law pinned (a TY2023-control row receives exactly the 2023→2024 CBO net-capital-gain factor, aged from the control, nothing twice); the rebase's control-period stamp pinned; the double-age guard updated to the truthful reason. Full test_us_fiscal_targets.py plus builder/plan/parity/SSI suites green locally.

Expected on attempt 4: the state family binds ~31.5% higher, the national row becomes honestly reachable, and the solve reconciles the $25B coverage sliver across both families (~1% each, inside all tolerances). Part of #462/#464.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis and others added 3 commits July 21, 2026 18:13
Build N attempt 3's sole national blocker adjudicated (full receipts on
populace#462): the ht2 TY2022 state net-capital-gains family rebases to
the TY2023 Table 1.4 control (x0.7719) and then STOPPED — the rebase
stamped uprating_to_period=2024 while landing at TY2023 data, and the
ager skipped anything carrying uprating_factor. The national row
continued to TY2024 via CBO (x1.31537, source-exact). Result: 51
mutually consistent state rows at TY2023 levels vs one national row at
TY2024, 34% apart; the solve satisfied the 51 and ate the national miss
at -25.58% (byte-identical to certified M's known gap, now blocking
under #464).

The fix keeps every chain link exactly once:
- the CG rebase now stamps uprating_to_period with the CONTROL's actual
  period (TY2023), not the build period;
- target aging treats uprating_to_period as an uprated row's effective
  source period: rows uprated all the way to build fall through to
  source_equals_build at factor one (bit-identical values; the
  already_period_aligned reason string retires), and rows stopped at an
  earlier control receive exactly the remaining CBO links.

Closure arithmetic from the adjudication: the 51-state sum moves to
~$1,245.1B vs the national $1,270.9B — residual $25.75B ~= the exactly
identified OA+PR coverage slice ($25.37B, ht2 US minus the 51 states),
i.e. the target system becomes internally consistent to ~0.03% of the
national row. The other three uprating writers stamp the build period
by construction and keep byte-identical behavior; auditing their
controls for the same stale-control class is a noted follow-up.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…t controls, model version

1. A malformed uprating_to_period now raises instead of failing open
   into a silent factor-one pass through the period contract (HIGH).
2. The taxable-interest and EITC-total rebase writers stamp the
   CONTROL's actual period instead of the build period — on the real
   feed this un-masks 467 taxable-interest state specs stopped at
   TY2023, which now age the remaining CBO AGI link (+8.72%, +$21.59B
   family-wide), the same defect class as the CG rows and consistent
   with their aged-to-2024 national row. The EITC AGI-group writer
   blends multiple source periods and keeps its stamp (its rows resolve
   factor-one under the new ager; group-period semantics are the noted
   remaining audit).
3. AGING_MODEL_VERSION 1.1.0 -> 1.2.0 per the version-bump contract.

Tests: fail-closed malformed stamp; interest-flavored chain completion;
existing ty2024-control interest fixture unchanged by construction.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Round-2 finding 1: uprated count/non-USD/projection rows bypassed the
unparseable-stamp check via the not-ageable early return. The guard now
runs for every row carrying uprating_factor before any classification —
such rows never age, but a populace-authored stamp that does not parse
is a code bug and fails closed. Count-row regression added.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis

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Round-2 disposition: finding 1 fixed in 5cf06ce — the malformed-stamp guard now runs for every row carrying uprating_factor, ahead of the not-ageable early return, with a count-row regression (counts never age, but a populace-authored stamp that doesn't parse fails closed). Finding 3 verified passing in round 2 (model 1.2.0 on all 2,007 aged specs, zero 1.1.0 pins).

Finding 2 is adjudicated out of this PR as pre-existing and improved by it: the repaired AGI-bin sub-surface closes to its own CD-lineage control at 0.020%; the residual 9.76% gap is between the HT2 national all-row and the bins' partition — a source-level HT2-vs-CD-table discrepancy that existed on main (~20% there, since the bins also sat one CBO link behind) and that no blocking gate binds. Filed with the round-2 receipts as #489 alongside the EITC group-stamp audit.

Verified value delta remains exactly the adjudicated classes: 51 CG rows ×1.3153658 + 467 interest rows ×1.0872135, 518 changed / 5,697 total, nothing else moved. Merging on green CI; attempt 4 runs against the vintage-consistent surface.

@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis merged commit c3e378a into main Jul 21, 2026
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MaxGhenis deleted the cg-state-chain-completion branch July 21, 2026 22:54
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Jul 22, 2026
… bound (#490)

Owner decision (Max, 2026-07-22): the N release does not hold on this
row. Build N's truthful capital-gains/interest target moves (#462,
#488) re-equilibrated the solve and pushed medical_dental from
certified M's +4.4% to +20.8%, stable across a 2x-epoch run — a
loss-signal gap (the solver has no knowledge of publish-contract
rows), not a data defect. Relaxed to the established 0.25 broad-fit
bound with the adjudication recorded in the register; the #462
loss-contract alignment (shared critical register + contract-row loss
boost, branch ready) restores the 0.15 bar once a boosted run holds
it. The no-incumbent-improvement law is unchanged and re-pinned at the
new cap.

Co-authored-by: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Jul 24, 2026
…ual (#489)

The populace#489 adjudication, every value from official IRS SOI workbooks:

- HT2 is a correct photo of its own tax year: TY2022 US A00300 $133.122B
  vs Pub 1304 Table 1.4 TY2022 $133.597B (-0.36%; TY2021 identity -0.13%).
- Taxable interest grew x2.349 from TY2022 to TY2023 ($133.597B ->
  $313.813B, 22in14ar.xls -> 23in14ar.xls) as the 2022-23 rate hikes hit a
  full tax year of T-bills/CDs; interest dollar targets age on the CBO AGI
  default (x1.1203 over 2022->2024) because the aging model has no interest
  series, so the family missed the explosion entirely.
- The compiled surface pinned the same unfiltered model sum at two live
  values 2.28x apart (HT2-all $149.1B vs Table 4.3 $340.4B) plus an
  itemized-only sub-target ($180.0B) EXCEEDING the smaller national total —
  logically impossible; certified Build N wrote off ~470 HT2/CD-lineage
  rows past the loss cap (+128% national all-row) while sitting exactly on
  the Table 4.3 truth. The Build G export-mass parity reference ($320.159B,
  computed through the gate's own code path) sits at 102% of the raw TY2023
  official actual: the reference was right, the targets were wrong.
- The AGI-bin rebase control (irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022
  us $123.791B) is doubly defective: the CD table is a processing-window
  subset (92.7% of the same-year Table 1.4 actual) and its ty2023 feed
  stamp is a vintage error — IRS's latest CD publication is TAX YEAR 2022
  (22incd.csv).

Remedy (the net-capital-gains x0.7719 doctrine): every stale HT2 interest
row — state_agi bins, state_broad rows, US bins — rebases by ONE national
realized factor onto the latest Pub 1304-class national actual (Table 4.3,
bridged from the all-returns-excluding-dependents universe with the bridge
declared in metadata; the dependent sliver is 0.22% of amount / 2.0% of
returns, and a Table 1.4 interest fact outranks the bridge when the feed
gains one). The stale HT2 national all-rows retire because the live
Table 4.3 rows own the national concept; congressional-district aggregates
are never interest controls. The rebase lands at the control's period and
target aging completes the remaining links (#488 chain-completion law).

On the pinned v9.2 feed the corrected family is exactly coherent: US bins
sum $340.428B == the Table 4.3 national row; bin returns 54,167,421 vs
54,167,410; the 51-state sum's $5.58B residual is the OA/PR coverage
sliver; the itemized sub-target is 52.9% of the family (feasible at last);
and the export-mass parity gate passes truthfully at +6.3% vs the Build G
reference — no exclusion needed, so the register instead documents the
reference's vindication. The 9.76% HT2-vs-bins internal gap (#489) dies by
construction: every surviving row binds at the same national mass.

Fixes the #492 adoption-sequence step 1: the loss-shape experiment's
effective arms were obeying the wrong side of this self-contradiction
(rational: ht2-all -4.3% but Table 4.3 -58.1%, Table 2.1 -63.6%).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Jul 24, 2026
…ual (#489 adjudication) (#518)

* Rebase stale HT2 taxable-interest rows onto the Pub 1304 national actual (#489)

The populace#489 adjudication, every value from official IRS SOI workbooks:

- HT2 is a correct photo of its own tax year: TY2022 US A00300 $133.122B
  vs Pub 1304 Table 1.4 TY2022 $133.597B (-0.36%; TY2021 identity -0.13%).
- Taxable interest grew x2.349 from TY2022 to TY2023 ($133.597B ->
  $313.813B, 22in14ar.xls -> 23in14ar.xls) as the 2022-23 rate hikes hit a
  full tax year of T-bills/CDs; interest dollar targets age on the CBO AGI
  default (x1.1203 over 2022->2024) because the aging model has no interest
  series, so the family missed the explosion entirely.
- The compiled surface pinned the same unfiltered model sum at two live
  values 2.28x apart (HT2-all $149.1B vs Table 4.3 $340.4B) plus an
  itemized-only sub-target ($180.0B) EXCEEDING the smaller national total —
  logically impossible; certified Build N wrote off ~470 HT2/CD-lineage
  rows past the loss cap (+128% national all-row) while sitting exactly on
  the Table 4.3 truth. The Build G export-mass parity reference ($320.159B,
  computed through the gate's own code path) sits at 102% of the raw TY2023
  official actual: the reference was right, the targets were wrong.
- The AGI-bin rebase control (irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022
  us $123.791B) is doubly defective: the CD table is a processing-window
  subset (92.7% of the same-year Table 1.4 actual) and its ty2023 feed
  stamp is a vintage error — IRS's latest CD publication is TAX YEAR 2022
  (22incd.csv).

Remedy (the net-capital-gains x0.7719 doctrine): every stale HT2 interest
row — state_agi bins, state_broad rows, US bins — rebases by ONE national
realized factor onto the latest Pub 1304-class national actual (Table 4.3,
bridged from the all-returns-excluding-dependents universe with the bridge
declared in metadata; the dependent sliver is 0.22% of amount / 2.0% of
returns, and a Table 1.4 interest fact outranks the bridge when the feed
gains one). The stale HT2 national all-rows retire because the live
Table 4.3 rows own the national concept; congressional-district aggregates
are never interest controls. The rebase lands at the control's period and
target aging completes the remaining links (#488 chain-completion law).

On the pinned v9.2 feed the corrected family is exactly coherent: US bins
sum $340.428B == the Table 4.3 national row; bin returns 54,167,421 vs
54,167,410; the 51-state sum's $5.58B residual is the OA/PR coverage
sliver; the itemized sub-target is 52.9% of the family (feasible at last);
and the export-mass parity gate passes truthfully at +6.3% vs the Build G
reference — no exclusion needed, so the register instead documents the
reference's vindication. The 9.76% HT2-vs-bins internal gap (#489) dies by
construction: every surviving row binds at the same national mass.

Fixes the #492 adoption-sequence step 1: the loss-shape experiment's
effective arms were obeying the wrong side of this self-contradiction
(rational: ht2-all -4.3% but Table 4.3 -58.1%, Table 2.1 -63.6%).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Harden the interest rebase per cross-family review (6 should-fixes)

Sol (gpt-5.6-sol) review of the committed diff, all findings adjudicated
real and fixed:

1. Bridge-target retirement: when an exact all-returns Pub 1304 control is
   compiled for a (measure, status), the excluding-dependents national
   surrogate retires — the bridge target must not ALSO bind (it would
   re-create a 0.22%-class copy of the dual-scale defect this pass
   removes). On the v9.2 feed no all-returns interest fact exists, so the
   Table 4.3 rows stay live (verified byte-identical surface).
2. The compile rescue for cross-period bounded interest slices is now
   scoped to Historic Table 2 — the population the rebase normalizes. A
   bounded non-HT2 slice would compile flagged but never rebase (a silent
   stale hard target); the cross-period gate drops it instead.
3. Filing-status families: both harvests use _is_all_agi_range_fact (the
   capital-gains template), so a status-sliced family finds its own
   status-keyed totals and controls instead of silently losing its bins.
4. Universe discipline: stale denominators are universe-keyed and the
   control lattice starts from the SPEC's universe; the one admitted
   bridge is all_returns -> returns_excluding_dependents. Reverse and
   itemized bridges are impossible, not merely unexercised.
5. Eligibility joined selection: an unusably old exact-universe control no
   longer shadows an eligible bridge behind it.
6. Missing source_period falls into the drop/keep policy instead of
   raising KeyError.

New laws pinned: bounded non-HT2 slice drops; status-slice rebase +
status-total retirement; reverse-bridge ban (both directions of sol's
reproduction); ineligible-exact-vs-eligible-bridge; latest-within-universe
wins; equal-period control is eligible; unanchored full-range state row
survives; end-to-end compiled aging (bin stays an exact share of the
national row through the real ager). 137 passed / 1 pre-existing skip;
builder/gates/preflight/export suites 358 passed; pinned-feed compile
invariants re-verified unchanged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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