Refit distributional tail and validate state factors - #13
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Three adversarial reviews of revision 3 (methodology, red-team, round-diff; archived verbatim in paper/reviews/round-3/) found that the revision fixed one instance of a three-instance staleness event and mis-attributed the coverage change. All findings applied: The validation paragraph now names the true coverage channel, verified in the PR #13 diff: the evaluation moved from the through-FY2023 primary model to the shipped frozen-through-FY2022 configuration (62,984 training deviators against 79,919); none of the three fixes enters the coverage computation. The two stale siblings from the same refit are corrected with supersession notes: sign AUC 0.700 → 0.686 (E4) and E6's pre-#13 NY/CO comparison → the current ratio form (NY 0.508, CO 0.692), which conveys a larger raw gap. "Structural" weakens to "not specific to the gradient-boosted quantile stack" with shared-cause candidates named. The sign-disagreement passage states the robust interval-exclusion form (all three CIs exclude +$7.1M, maximum upper bound +$0.6M), imports the artifact's own warning against reading the model's sign as causal, grounds lever retirement in the identity-versus-prediction mismatch, and names the classifier leg. The review-history count is consistent everywhere (three rounds, seventeen reports); the raw-facts leg's 845/856 agreement is disclosed beside the certified chain's 856/856. Attestations move into the repo: the five engine-leg manifests (hash-verified against the pins in COUNTERFACTUAL.md) under paper/snapshot/engine-leg/ with a provenance README, and a QRF cross-process determinism attestation. scripts_build_data.py accepts the documented arguments (output byte-identical). FACTS B3/E5/E9/I5 residue corrected. app/public/paper/ is re-rendered from this source, resolving the stale published copy. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis
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Aug 7, 2026
…ision 3) (#18) * Align paper, docs, and pipeline provenance with the model-primary release The manuscript's validation section described the pre-correction pipeline: coverage within 3 points at seven of nine levels and the model mode disabled pending fixes. The corrected pipeline (PR #13) attains within-3-points coverage at only two of nine levels, and the fixes shipped. Revision 3 states the current numbers with a disclosure of the change, adds the pre-registered QRF benchmark as evidence the under-coverage is not specific to the shipped estimator, reports the Colorado engine leg end to end — the SMD-in-the-editing circularity, the censoring-bounded repricing, and the sign disagreement between the model-implied and accounting-reverse cost-share changes — and updates the limitations and review-history passages to the deployed reality. FACTS.md corrects E3 with a supersession note, updates E6 and the tool-status prohibition, and adds section I tracing every claim of the model-primary round to its committed artifact. The pipeline's browser_consumer_status string and FINDINGS narrative now describe the live consumer; regeneration is otherwise byte-identical (111 tests). Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Apply round-3 review findings and re-render the published manuscript Three adversarial reviews of revision 3 (methodology, red-team, round-diff; archived verbatim in paper/reviews/round-3/) found that the revision fixed one instance of a three-instance staleness event and mis-attributed the coverage change. All findings applied: The validation paragraph now names the true coverage channel, verified in the PR #13 diff: the evaluation moved from the through-FY2023 primary model to the shipped frozen-through-FY2022 configuration (62,984 training deviators against 79,919); none of the three fixes enters the coverage computation. The two stale siblings from the same refit are corrected with supersession notes: sign AUC 0.700 → 0.686 (E4) and E6's pre-#13 NY/CO comparison → the current ratio form (NY 0.508, CO 0.692), which conveys a larger raw gap. "Structural" weakens to "not specific to the gradient-boosted quantile stack" with shared-cause candidates named. The sign-disagreement passage states the robust interval-exclusion form (all three CIs exclude +$7.1M, maximum upper bound +$0.6M), imports the artifact's own warning against reading the model's sign as causal, grounds lever retirement in the identity-versus-prediction mismatch, and names the classifier leg. The review-history count is consistent everywhere (three rounds, seventeen reports); the raw-facts leg's 845/856 agreement is disclosed beside the certified chain's 856/856. Attestations move into the repo: the five engine-leg manifests (hash-verified against the pins in COUNTERFACTUAL.md) under paper/snapshot/engine-leg/ with a provenance README, and a QRF cross-process determinism attestation. scripts_build_data.py accepts the documented arguments (output byte-identical). FACTS B3/E5/E9/I5 residue corrected. app/public/paper/ is re-rendered from this source, resolving the stale published copy. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Sol model-fix round per the adversarial statistical review, gated by independent byte-identical reproduction of all committed artifacts:
🤖 Generated with Claude Code