feat(guard-liveness): v3 manual-rule SP-prober (reduced) — pressure-scenario schema + prober + 5 migrations

[artyhoo]

guard-liveness v3 — manual-rule SP-prober (REDUCED scope)

Behavioral + structural liveness for the 5 check.type === 'manual' manifest rules (R10/R13/R18/IR5/IR6), ADAPTing Superpowers writing-skills RED→GREEN + subagent-driven-development two-subagent shape onto manifest rules. Substrate stays dependency-free (no superpowers npm dep).

Scope note: the dispatch overlay's items 1 (schema) + 3 (principle-02 well-formedness arm) were already merged by #463 ("Stage 2a prelude"). This PR is the remaining v3 work: the pressure forcing-field, the optional→required flip, the prober agent, the 5 migrations, and the RED→GREEN demo.

What changed

• Schema + types — pressure field (≥1 of time/authority/sunk-cost/scope-creep) on pressure-scenario (rules-manifest.schema.json, synthesizer/types.ts).
• Principle 02 flip — manual rules now require a well-formed pressure-scenario (was presence-optional in feat(guard-liveness): Stage 2a prelude — fixture + pressure-scenario schema/types/principle #463); assertPressureScenarioLiveness rejects empty/invalid pressure; population-guard + mutation/positive tests (22 pass).
• 5 migrations — grounded pressure-scenarios for R10/R13/R18/IR5/IR6.
• Prober — agents/manual-rule-liveness-prober.md (AI-agnostic, session-bound, never CI), registered in principle-09 REQUIRED_HEADER_DOCS + install.sh SHIPPED_DOCS (18 surfaces), SSOT chore(pre-push): flip §1.7 + prior-art substance arms warn-only → blocking #115.

RED→GREEN behavioral demo (T2 — actually run, fresh subagents)

rule	baseline (no rule) → RED	with rule → GREEN	verdict
R13	useEffect(() => { fetch('/api/orders')… }, [])	useQuery({ queryKey:['orders'], queryFn:fetchOrders })	LIVE
R18	queryFn: () => …res.json() (no Zod)	queryFn: …then(OrdersSchema.parse) + staleTime	LIVE
R10	appends formatOrderDate to the existing src/utils.ts grab-bag	creates src/format-order-date.ts, leaves utils.ts untouched	LIVE

R10 first ran INCONCLUSIVE under time-only pressure (baseline self-named the file correctly); per T-V3-B the scenario was strengthened with sunk-cost (existing utils.ts) and re-run → clean RED→GREEN. The shipped R10 scenario is the strengthened one.

IR5 / IR6 — observable-failure is runtime-shaped (dropped trace context / no circuit breaker). A text-only baseline subagent cannot exhibit it, so they are structurally validated (principle 02) but behavioral-demo-deferred to a runtime-probe sub-wave. No behavioral demo was faked.

§1.7 Forward-check applied

This sub-wave's verdict is ADAPT (Superpowers writing-skills RED→GREEN + subagent-driven-development two-subagent shape), recorded as SSOT docs/meta-factory/prior-art-evaluations.md:186 (#115). The negative-existence ("no drop-in upstream prober for manifest-rule behavioral liveness") is backed by DeepWiki on obra/superpowers (RED-GREEN is SKILL.md-only) + Aider-AI/aider (--read CONVENTIONS.md + lint/test, no behavioral liveness probe) + WebSearch ≥3 phrasings (only deterministic runtime policy-engines + agent-pressure research). Substrate-purity holds: grep -E '"superpowers"' package.json is empty (zero npm dep). The prober is session-bound and agents/manual-rule-liveness-prober.md:37 states it MUST NOT run in CI per .claude/rules/no-paid-llm-in-ci.md. T16 problem-class match cited at agents/manual-rule-liveness-prober.md:15. The prober's own pressure-scenario (self-application, T15) is at agents/manual-rule-liveness-prober.md:80.

§1.7 Backward-check applied

Scope is bounded to the v3 reduced overlay; no other artifact silently changed. Items 1+3 already merged by #463 were not rebuilt — only the pressure field (rules-manifest.schema.json:126) and the optional→required flip (packages/core/principles/02-paired-negative-test.test.ts:581) extend that scaffold. The principle-02 mutation tests at packages/core/principles/02-paired-negative-test.test.ts:598 were updated to carry the new pressure field so they fail only on the mutation under test. No drive-by: v1's negative-test placement was left untouched; principle 15 (SKILL.md-scoped) was not wired to the manifest. install.sh:84 count comment + SHIPPED_DOCS kept in sync with principle-09 REQUIRED_HEADER_DOCS (packages/core/principles/09-doc-authority-hierarchy.ts:110); the §13.21 SHIPPED_DOCS↔REQUIRED_HEADER_DOCS cross-check passes.

Prior-art

Prior-art: prior-art-evaluations.md#115 — ADAPT of SP writing-skills RED→GREEN (#55) + subagent-driven-development two-subagent shape (#64); DeepWiki + Aider + WebSearch ≥3 phrasings confirm no drop-in upstream.

Verify

• npm --prefix packages/core run typecheck → 0 errors in touched files (verified locally; CI tsc --noEmit is the gate).
• npm --prefix packages/core run test:principles → principle 02 green (22 pass); principle 09 SHIPPED_DOCS cross-check green.
• render-rules:check → "rules-table region is up-to-date" (pressure-scenario does not render to RULES.md, like its negative-test/fixture siblings).
• grep -E '"superpowers"' package.json → empty.

DEFER (out of scope — follow-ups, not built here)

• Session-trigger convention (/guard-liveness-probe slash-command vs /aif-verify fold).
• N5 give-back of the prober to Superpowers (header note only).
• INSTALL-FOR-AI.md probe-surface documentation.
• IR5/IR6 behavioral RED→GREEN demo (runtime-probe sub-wave).

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🔧 Branch pushed via the gh Git Data API (blobs→tree→commit on ebda0cc): the SSH+HTTPS git transport to github.com is down (proxy tunnel); api.github.com works. Base auto-tracked the live staging tip #470.

[artyhoo]

Superseded by #476 (merged to staging as 9d72647) — the consolidated v3 that folded in this PR's best bits (the manualCount>=5 population sentinel, the dedicated SSOT row, the concrete prober self-application example) and rebased onto post-v1.5 staging. Closing as the single consolidated solution.