Index Future Ranges and Trends

Index Futures Thread

https://twitter.com/FlawInTheMatrix/status/1605539877910560769

Opening Range

• When we have a very one-sided range overextended we generally look for the high or low to be violated later in the day. The extension gives us something to trade back into.

AM Trend

• Combine with HTF Bias finding our draw on liquidity, we ask what did London do?
• Are we likely to see a reverse or continuation
• AM SMT Divergence
  • Hunt SMTs from 5am - 9:30am NY Time. It's our SMT Kill Zone.
  • To be used in conjunction with BIAS and Order Flow.
  • If it's not clear, don't strain and force it, it will be obvious when you see it.
    • From ICT (Index SMT)
    • Between 05:00-09:30 am EST.

      • Compare relative Highs and Lows.

      • When Institutional Order Flow is Bullish = Compare Lows.

        • One index will fail to confirm Lower Lows in all three.

      • When Institutional Order Flow is Bearish = Compare Highs.

        • One index will fail to confirm Higher Highs in all three.

PM Trend

• Note NY Lunch is considered 12am-1pm, but can also be 11-2 depending on market conditions.
• If the AM session was fast price action, expect a consolidation or retracement during lunch.
• PM = AM continuation or reversal.
  • From ICT
    • PM Trend
    • After the noon NY lunch hour.
    • NY PM Session is 1:00 - 4:00.
    • True Day High or Low will tend to form between 3-4pm of NY time.
    • Between 1-4pm there is typically a trend or price swing daily [PM Trend].
    • The PM trend can be a continuation of the AM trend or an intraday reversal.
    • Measured Moves in Afternoon tend to be faster than during AM.
    • Typically 2pm sees the major move begin.
• PM SMT Divergence between 12-3pm.
  • Use in conjunction with bias and order flow.
  • From ICT
    • Index SMT

      • Between Noon and 3pm est, relative Highs and Lows should be compared.

        • When Institutional Order Flow is Bullish = Compare Lows.
        • One index will fail to confirm Lower Lows in all three.

      • When Institutional Order Flow is Bearish = Compare Highs.

        • One index will fail to confirm Higher Highs in all three.

Intraday Profiles

• These work in both directions bullish and bearish just reverse the profile in your head.

• Use in conjunction with HTF bias and Order Flow (daily/4hr)

• Two Session Up Close

  • Institutional Order Flow: Bullish.
  • AM Trend
    • Index SMT On Lows.
    • Return to discount array then rally.
    • Rely on Time of Day for High (15m-60m PDA)
  • Lunch Hour
    • Consolidation with shallow retracement.
  • PM Trend
    • Index SMT on Lows
    • Runs the Lunch lows. [Sell Stop Liq Raid]
    • Rely on Time of Day for High (15m-60m PDA) OR
    • Drops into FV Discount Array then rally into close.

  

  AM Rally PM Reversal

  • Institutional Order Flow: Bull - Under HTF Prem PDA.
  • AM Trend
    • Index SMT On Lows.
    • Rely on Time of Day for Highs (swing)
    • Return to discount array then rally.
  • Lunch Hour
    • Consolidation with shallow retracement.
  • PM Trend
    • Index SMT on Highs (15m-60m PDA)
    • Rely on Time of day for Swing
    • Runs the Lunch highs. [Buy Stop Liq Raid] - Then Reveres into Close OR
    • Run the Intraday High - Then Reveres into Close.
  • PM Trend can resume higher if AM Session Discount = HTF

  

  Consolidation AM Decline PM Rally

  • Institutional Order Flow: Neutral.

  • AM Trend

    • Index SMT On Highs.
    • Rely on Time of Day for Low (swing) (15m-60m PDA)
    • Return to Premium Array then decline. OR
    • Expand Lower from Equilibrium to Run London Sell Stops.

  • Lunch Hour

    • Consolidation with shallow retracement.

  • PM Trend

    • Index SMT on Lows
    • Rely on Time of day for Swing
    • Runs the Lunch lows. [Sell Stop Liq Raid] - Then reaches for days buy stops. OR
    • Run the Intraday Low - Then reaches for ID/London Buy Stops.

  • PM Trend can be consolidation from lunch to close as well.

  

Further study of this content is in month 10 Index futures videos.